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Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch at the 2026 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.
While the attention of much of the golfing world has shifted to Augusta National for next week's Masters, there is one more trophy to hand out on the PGA Tour. The Valero Texas Open has long served as the Masters final warm-up stop, offering not just the benefits that come with a PGA Tour victory, but also a final spot at Augusta for anyone outside the top 50 in the World Golf Rankings.
As a result, this field is as loaded as any we've seen since the PLAYERS Championship. Nine of the World's Top 20 are in attendance, while marquee names like Rickie Fowler, Billy Horschel, and Tony Finau give it one last run at a coveted Masters invitation.
But how does this illustrious field stack up at the top? Who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at the 2026 Valero Texas Open!
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No. 10 - Sudarshan Yellamaraju
With recent champions like Brian Harman, Akshay Bhatia, Corey Conners, and J. J. Spaun, it’s clear that TPC San Antonio consistently rewards precision ball-striking.
Few players on Tour have risen faster in that department than 24-year-old Yellamaraju. The Indian-born, Winnipeg-based rookie burst into the spotlight with a T5 at The Players Championship earlier this month, but those building weekly models have been tracking his underlying metrics well before his breakout in Ponte Vedra.
Through his first seven PGA Tour starts, Yellamaraju leads the field in Total Driving and is one of just two players ranking inside the top 25 in both Driving Distance and Accuracy. He also sits top 30 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Proximity, and Greens in Regulation -- a statistical profile that mirrors many of this event’s most consistent contenders.
What separates him from the typical ball-striking archetype, however, is the putter. Yellamaraju has gained strokes on the greens in six of seven starts this season and ranks 10th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting on a per-round basis.
Based on early returns alone, this No. 10 ranking may undersell his current form. He’s trending toward another strong finish in Houston (T8 through three rounds), and this week’s setup should suit his all-around game even more. If there’s still skepticism about whether his PLAYERS finish was a one-off, it’s quickly fading -- Yellamaraju looks every bit like a long-term fixture, and perhaps Canada’s most exciting breakout since Conners himself.
No. 9 - Ryo Hisatsune
Third straight top-10 finish for Ryo Hisatsune!
😎 T2 @FarmersInsOpen
😎 T10 @WMPhoenixOpen
😎 T7 @ATTProAm (currently)📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/NyLgre2v2N
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 15, 2026
As market support drove Hisatsune into the 25-1 range ahead of the Valspar Championship, his eventual T30 finish fell short of expectations for one of the week’s most heavily backed players. Still, I’m not the slightest bit discouraged as the 23-year-old returns to a venue where he’s already found success.
Twelve months ago, Hisatsune followed a T4 at Innisbrook with a T5 here at the Valero Texas Open, showcasing one of the best driving performances of his young PGA Tour career -- gaining over 4.1 strokes off the tee, fourth in the field.
The ball-striking flashes he displayed at both stops last season have only sharpened in 2026. Through three months, he ranks 7th in this field in Total Driving, 7th in Good Drive Percentage, and 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
That progression has translated into results, with four top-15 finishes in nine starts this season -- including two in Signature Events at Pebble Beach Golf Links and TPC Sawgrass. He’s also shown a consistent comfort level on over-seeded green complexes, gaining over a quarter stroke per round across 17 career starts on similar surfaces.
While his Valspar result may have disappointed backers, the market signal leading into that week is still worth noting. Sustained movement on high-limit books rarely comes without reason, and I remain bullish on Hisatsune’s long-term trajectory. If anything, the muted finish may create a buying opportunity as he returns to a course that clearly suits his eye.
No. 8 - Michael Thorbjornsen
While much of the market gravitated toward Thorbjornsen at the wide-open test of Memorial Park last week, I remained skeptical that Houston was the ideal fit for his profile.
There’s no question Thorbjornsen possesses elite speed off the tee, but his greatest advantage comes when that power is paired with his driving accuracy -- specifically at venues that meaningfully penalize missed fairways.
That’s not to say last week’s 35-1 wagers were misplaced. Thorbjornsen entered Sunday with an outside chance to win before ultimately settling for T14. Still, a look at his best performances tells a more consistent story: T3 at TPC Scottsdale, T2 at TPC Deere Run, and a final-group appearance at TPC Sawgrass all came at courses where wayward driving carries a steeper cost.
Across those venues, the average missed fairway penalty exceeds 0.40 strokes -- well above the Tour average of 0.35. By contrast, Memorial Park’s forgiving setup limits separation, allowing players with less control but superior speed (Aldrich Potgieter, Chris Gotterup, and Min Woo Lee) to neutralize that edge.
That’s why this week sets up far better. At TPC San Antonio, Thorbjornsen’s status as one of the Tour’s premier total drivers should allow him to lean on the driver with confidence, even with the course’s punishing native areas looming just beyond the fairways.
Beyond the tee, he’s been quietly reliable as well -- gaining strokes on approach in five of eight starts and with the putter in six of eight. While his Sunday performances have stalled his momentum the past two weeks, the underlying profile remains extremely strong. If anything in the 40–50/1 range appears, the upside will be difficult to ignore.
No. 7 - Jordan Spieth
"What is happening right now?"
There was never a doubt Jordan Spieth was going to birdie the 11th 😂
📺 @PGATOURLIVE on ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/bTFvtT2Ev4
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 20, 2026
As someone who was financially invested in Spieth two weeks ago, it’s still difficult to fully assess his current form coming off a T11 at the Valspar Championship.
At times, Spieth looked like the best player in the field -- carding ten birdies and an eagle across his opening two rounds -- but, familiarly, gave much of it back with six bogeys and a double.
For anyone who has followed Spieth over the past decade, that volatility isn’t surprising. The bigger question is whether he can realistically string together four clean rounds against elite competition. Even while ranking inside the top seven in Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Strokes Gained: Approach at Innisbrook, he never truly factored over the weekend -- a trend that’s become increasingly common during this prolonged winless stretch.
In a vacuum, mental errors and missed short putts are more correctable than the ball-striking issues that plagued him earlier in his career. But as the overall level of competition continues to rise, it’s fair to question whether those lapses can be fully eliminated often enough for him to contend consistently.
That said, if there’s a place for a resurgence, it’s here. Spieth snapped a four-year winless drought at TPC San Antonio in 2021 and has added four more finishes of T12 or better in his last seven starts at this event.
Even with the course history, though, I’d need to see a more favorable number before buying back in. For now, he lands just outside my true contention range.
No. 6 - Robert MacIntyre
Admittedly, my numbers have consistently lagged behind MacIntyre. But with two top-four finishes this season -- including one at The Players Championship -- alongside two additional top-25s in Signature Events and three marquee wins worldwide over the past two years, leaving out the fourth-highest-ranked player in this field would be a step too far.
The hesitation, however, lies in his underlying profile. There isn’t a single tee-to-green metric where MacIntyre truly separates. Over the past 15 months, he’s been solidly above Tour average in Total Driving, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Around-the-Green play -- but ranks outside the top 40 in each.
Instead, much of his recent success has been driven by a scorching putter. Since the start of 2026, MacIntyre has gained strokes on the greens in all six starts, averaging +0.89 per round -- a mark that ranks third in this field and sixth on Tour.
That creates a difficult equation. With his world ranking now inside the top 15 and a high-profile result at Sawgrass fresh in the market’s memory, his price is likely to compress in a weaker field. And given his relative lack of separation tee-to-green, that introduces more downside than I’m comfortable with compared to others in this range.
To his credit, there’s an intangible element here that models struggle to capture. MacIntyre has repeatedly elevated his play on big stages, and that ceiling is very real. At the right number, I’m willing to buy into that upside.
I just don’t expect that number to show up this week. At something like 20-1, the profile doesn’t offer the same stability as others priced alongside him.
No. 5 - Si Woo Kim
A T50 in his return to TPC Sawgrass wasn’t quite the statement many expected, but it does little to diminish what has been one of the more impressive early-season profiles on Tour for Kim.
Since the start of the year, only Rory McIlroy has gained more strokes per round when combining off-the-tee, approach, and around-the-green play. Kim’s accuracy-driven profile -- ranking second in both Fairways Hit and Good Drive Percentage -- should translate seamlessly to the positional demands of TPC San Antonio.
His results at the Valero underscore this affinity, as Kim logged four top 25 finishes here in a five-year stretch from 2017-2022. A poor putting performance caused him to miss his first cut here since 2016, 12 months ago, but in no stretch of his nearly 10 years on Tour has he arrived with such convincing incoming form.
Across his last 15 worldwide starts, he has just three finishes worse than 21st, including six results of sixth or better. He’s proven capable across a range of setups as well, from positional venues like PGA West and Waiʻalae to more demanding championship tests such as Torrey Pines and Bay Hill.
While the win has yet to materialize during this stretch, this week presents one of the clearest stylistic fits he’ll see. Kim pairs elite positional driving with top-tier iron play, ranking No. 1 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 50 rounds (and No. 2 in proximity).
Given the relative strength of this field compared to recent starts, this sets up as a legitimate opportunity. As long as he’s not priced a full tier below the top names on this list, he’ll be firmly on my radar.
No. 4 - Russell Henley
Reigning @APinv champion Russell Henley goes right at it to set up birdie on 13. 🎯 pic.twitter.com/aDuaoEGAlm
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 6, 2026
While two-time Champ Corey Conners hasn't made the return trip to San Antonio, it's difficult to find a more apt comparable to the Canadians' skillset than Henley.
On a course that severely punishes wayward driving (see: Kevin Na’s infamous 16 here in 2011), Henley -- like Conners and many past Valero winners -- has built his success on elite control off the tee. Through three months of the season, he ranks No. 1 on Tour in “Distance from Edge of Fairway,” meaning that in the rare event that Russell does miss his target, it won't miss by nearly enough to find the tree-lined native lowland that makes this property so intimidating.
That precision carries into his approach play as well. Henley ranks top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, sixth in proximity, and eighth in recent putting form, giving him one of the more balanced profiles in this range.
Unlike a venue like Riviera -- which can expose his lack of length with softer conditions and minimal penalty for missed fairways -- TPC San Antonio places little historical emphasis on distance, instead rewarding accuracy and positioning.
Since a missed cut at The Genesis Invitational (his first since last year’s PGA Championship), Henley has responded with finishes of sixth and 13th in the Florida Signature Events at TPC Sawgrass and Bay Hill Club and Lodge, gaining a combined 5.3 strokes ball-striking and 7.9 putting.
Henley's game appears to be rounding into a similar vein of form as the one that allowed him to rise as high as No. 3 in the world late last year. Between Valero (solo 4th here in 2024), Augusta National (T4 in 2023), and Harbour Town (four top 20s in five starts since 2021), Henley will have ample opportunity in the next three weeks to cap this purple patch with a sixth career PGA Tour title.
No. 3 - Collin Morikawa
No. 2 - Tommy Fleetwood
For a player ranked fourth in the world, Fleetwood has flown somewhat under the radar to start 2026. While he may not have the headline finishes of Cameron Young, Morikawa, or Matt Fitzpatrick, Fleetwood has quietly opened the season much like he ended 2025 -- profiling as one of the most complete players in the game.
Even with a disastrous weekend on the greens at TPC Sawgrass (losing over 3.5 strokes putting), he still finished T8 -- outpacing Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and nearly everyone else in this field. More notably, he gained at least 3.5 strokes in each tee-to-green category (off the tee, approach, and around the green), the first time he’s accomplished that on the PGA Tour.
While the recent putting dip slightly tempers his short-term outlook, Fleetwood has more than enough track record on the greens to justify patience. Just last summer, he rebounded from a similarly poor putting performance in Scotland by gaining 23.5 strokes combined over his next four starts -- highlighted by a T16 at The Open Championship and a dominant stretch through the FedEx Cup Playoffs, culminating in a win at the Tour Championship.
Given that consistency, it’s difficult to envision a true misprice. But if the market does offer any narrative-driven discount, it’s worth noting how comfortable Fleetwood has been in pre-major spots. He finished seventh here in 2024 ahead of Augusta, added a fourth at the Truist Championship before last year’s PGA Championship, and nearly broke through at the Canadian Open in 2023 -- losing in a playoff to Nick Taylor the week before the U.S. Open.
I remain firmly bullish on Fleetwood’s 2026 outlook. And for a player still chasing his first full-field PGA Tour victory, motivation won’t be an issue if he finds himself in contention.
No. 1 - Ludvig Åberg
🚨☢️🦅 #GOING NUCLR — Ludvig Aberg chips in for eagle to shoot 29 on the front nine 😮💨 @LudvigTracker
Aberg ties the front nine record at Sawgrass 🔥
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) March 13, 2026
While Åberg wasn't able to close the deal in either of his stints in contention at Bay Hill or TPC Sawgrass, finishes of third and fifth in the Florida Swing's two Signature events have painted his season in a much different light as we count down to the year's first Major Championship.
After struggling with inconsistency for much of the first part of 2026, Åberg's signature ball-striking has returned in a big way in March. He finished second in the field from tee-to-green at the Arnold Palmer Invitational -- gaining nearly 10 strokes in four rounds, before logging another elite performance: +9.24 at the PLAYERS.
In particular, Åberg's iron play was the main catalyst behind this sudden surge -- logging the two best weeks of his career back-to-back on approach (+8.34; +7.78).
When his irons are firing, Ludvig's established baselines of elite off-the-tee play and reliable putting are allowed to really shine through. TPC San Antonio (in addition to many other Greg Norman designs) has been known to reward elite driving, and nobody in this field can match the consistency Åberg has routinely shown with off the tee throughout his three years on Tour.
Notably, the best single ball-striking week of his career came right here on the Oaks course two years ago, and there's nothing in the recent data to suggest he's incapable of replicating that feat again. He'll undoubtedly be a popular pick at Augusta in a week, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see his first win of 2026 come a few days early.
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