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RotoBaller's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.
With Opening Day just days away, it's time to identify some breakout pitchers. Some of these pitchers have all the tools to take the next step in their development and are poised to have a lead role on their team's roster.
In this piece, we will spotlight nine of our RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball Staff's breakout pitchers, including Cade Cavalli, Edward Cabrera, Emmet Sheehan, and more.
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Cade Cavalli, SP, Washington Nationals
ADP - 316
The 22nd overall pick in the 2020 Draft will toe the rubber on Opening Day after spending much of his career rehabbing, making 10 shorter starts last year that flashed why we’re so interested. Undoubtedly fueled by adrenaline, Cavalli hit 100.1 mph while making his first MLB start in nearly three years last August.
He suffered from right shoulder inflammation after making his MLB debut in 2022, and then he needed Tommy John surgery in March 2023. Then, a dead arm period limited him to three rehab starts in late ‘24 before he could finally build momentum and confidence in ‘25.
A fully operational arsenal should unlock closer to a strikeout per inning, and he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (55% GB rate last year). That was joined by an elite 4.4% barrel rate allowed and a miserable overall 3.8 degree launch angle. The knuckle curve, sinker, and changeup are brutal to get lift on.
This 2025-26 offseason is the first time he’s been able to focus on non-injury-related goals. That has resulted in a "turbo slurve" sweeper that allows him to attack horizontally, which should drastically increase the K potential and overall effectiveness against right-handed bats.
Find out what Cade Cavalli's been working on to improve his arsenal, so long as his mustache doesn't distract you. 😂 pic.twitter.com/JKDgGxdcLz
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) March 5, 2026
He’s enjoyed a great spring against a 7.5/10 opponent quality score (Double-A/Triple-A), allowing one hit over nine innings (9:2 K:BB). If he can sharpen that north-south attack with a well-located heater up top, the bats will flail.
- Written by Nick Mariano
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP - 133.5
Emmet Sheehan missed the entire 2024 season while he was sidelined from a hybrid Tommy John surgery. In 2025, the right-hander returned and looked nothing short of dominant. Across 73 1/3 innings, the right-hander logged a 2.82 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. During this stretch, he posted an elite 30.6% K% (90th percentile) while showing above-average command with a 7.6% BB%.
Under the hood, Sheehan's initial breakout looked even more impressive and opens the door for a massive 2026 season.
Among pitchers who have logged at least 50 innings (as an SP) last season, the 26-year-old placed seventh among all starters in K-BB% (25.7%). He sits in some pretty impressive company, as Cy Young contenders such as Chris Sale, Logan Gilbert, Cole Ragans, and Tarik Skubal all sit above him. This statistic is a great way to identify how effective a pitcher truly is.
If he is totaling strikeouts at a high rate (great for fantasy) and avoiding high counts, Sheehan is consistently putting himself in great positions to succeed.
Additionally, his 3.01 xFIP (expected Fielder Independent Pitching) placed him tied for eighth among starters, and his SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) of 2.95 also placed him eighth among all starting pitchers.
If that wasn't enough to impress, Sheehan also has two elite breaking balls, which help offset his rather mediocre fastball. Last season, his fastball generated a modest .348 xwOBA with a 26.5% whiff rate. However, his No. 2 and No. 3 pitches (slider and changeup) were elite.
His slider (deployed 30.4% of the time) boasted a 43.6% whiff rate with a .200 xwOBA. His changeup (16.7% used) had a 30.2% whiff rate with a similar .205 xwOBA. In September, Sheehan began to lean even more on his slider, and the results were impressive.
Through 25 1/3 innings that month, Sheehan logged a 1.42 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, 35 punchouts, and only six walks. This was a stark drop from the 3.68 ERA and 1.16 WHIP he held in July and August.
While he does have some workload concerns, given that he has yet to log over 100 innings in a season, the raw talent is off the charts. With Blake Snell (shoulder) already returning towards missing Opening Day and several other starters in the rotation having a lengthy track record of injuries, Sheehan appears to be penciled into a starting role all season.
He is a prime mid-round target at his current ADP with massive upside.
- Written by Andy Smith
Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs
ADP - 192
New Chicago Cubs pitcher Edward Cabrera might have the biggest fantasy ceiling of any pitcher on this list. Cabrera is coming off a solid all-around campaign in which he finished with a 3.53 ERA and 150 strikeouts across 137 2/3 innings pitched. Now, he lands in an exceptional situation after being traded from the Marlins to the Cubs this offseason.
Cabrera will not only be pitching in front of one of the best defenses in the majors, but Wrigley Field has become more of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Since 2023, the Cubs' home ballpark ranks toward the bottom of the league in park factor and extra-base hits. The wind in the Windy City has become a problem for a lot of hitters over the past three years.
Those two factors, mixed with Cabrera's arm talent, make him a strong breakout candidate. Both his Breaking Run Value and Offspeed Run Value ranked 88th percentile or better last season, and the right-hander also posted elite whiff rate (29.4%), chase rate (30.3%), and strikeout rate (25.8%) numbers in 2025. With a 94 mph changeup, Cabrera has the skills to emerge as an ace in Chicago's rotation.
So, fantasy managers should be taking a chance on him at his 192 ADP in NFBC formats. There is just too much that favors Cabrera entering his sixth major league season.
- Written by Joey Pollizze
Ian Seymour, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP - 338
This is a “talent over opportunity” based on the current depth chart. Some of you do not play in formats that support stashing and waiting, but even those folks need to have Seymour on the watch list at least.
Whenever Seymour does get a starting opportunity, this writer will be there with bells on. The offseason additions of Nick Martinez and Steven Matz dampen initial enthusiasm, though I can’t see them holding their own (especially Matz). And Shane McClanahan is no sure thing to stay healthy either.
Seymour was largely limited to relief appearances last year, and Joe Boyle lurks as well, but the southpaw is more exciting. He’s already 27, so expectations in the minors are higher, yet he still blew past those with 266 Ks and an ERA around 2.50 in 226 1/3 IP over the last two years.
This was followed by a 3.63 ERA/1.18 WHIP (3.19 FIP) over 57 MLB IP, which supplied 64 Ks with his usual 43% fly-ball rate. Moving from George M. Steinbrenner Field back to the Trop will help that profile.
He only gave up two home runs over 37 1/3 IP on the road versus three in half the frames at home. All of those came in the same game against the Yankees as well, who were effectively the home team in their own spring ballpark.
And while most times we see starter repertoires get a boost out of the bullpen, he was far more effective as a starter (acknowledging small samples). He was strongest when facing a lineup the second time as an SP, allowing zero earned runs and six total hits (13:5 K:BB) over those 10 1/3 IP.
The lefty posted a 31:7 K:BB with a .208/.260/.281 slash line against with a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 IP when drawing a formal start, compared to a 33:12 K:BB, .231/.314/.364 line, and 4.02 ERA in 31 1/3 IP of relief.
It would be unethical not to point out that four of his five starts were on the road, and three of them came against the Guardians, Nationals, and White Sox. He had one gem and one flop against the Blue Jays as well. I’m erring on the side of talent, because few can do things like this!
Ian Seymour just struck out Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman in a row. That’s 2 hall of famers and the best catcher in the sport.
Seymour’s season ERA is down to 1.42 pic.twitter.com/sTTE3cS5kG
— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) August 2, 2025
Holding the AL pennant-winners to zero earned runs over seven innings for your longest start is what draws my focus. Likewise, he never issued more than two walks in any of his 19 appearances. The skill set is quite intriguing, and the K upside comes without the walk issues seen with Boyle.
- Written by Nick Mariano
Jack Leiter, Texas Rangers
ADP - 246
The next three names are going to be a bit deeper into the ADP, as I want to try and find some serious diamonds in the rough, who do not require a ton of draft capital. First on that list is Jack Leiter, who has a ton of pedigree but has struggled to put it all together at the big league level.
In 2025, he started to turn the corner a bit, posting a 3.86 ERA over 29 starts. He also struck out 148 batters across 151 2/3 innings pitched, which was respectable. He throws gas, as evidenced by his 97 mph fastball ranking him in the 88th percentile, but there isn't much more promise in the metrics.
The reason I see some promise in Leiter is that he only has one truly awful pitch, and that is his sinker. He threw it 12% of the time in 2025, resulting in a BAA of .329. Meanwhile, every other pitch resulted in a sub-.240 BAA. If he reduces or eliminates this pitch from his mix, his numbers could be much better in 2026.
- Written by Kipp Heisterman
Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP - 129.7
Misiorowski logged only 66 innings in the majors in 2025, but, like Burns, was far more productive than his face-value stats suggest. The right-hander held a modest 4.36 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP. Over the first 33 1/3 innings, the right-hander held a dominant 2.70 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. However, following a stint on the IL with a left tibia contusion, Misiorowski did not find the same success late in the season.
In his last 32 2/3 innings, the 23-year-old held a much higher 6.06 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP. However, his metrics suggest we should see the first version of Misiorowski in 2026, more than his late-season counterpart.
He posted a 77th percentile 3.41 xERA and an elite .202 xBA (89th percentile), both well above average. Despite having a high 10.8% walk rate, Misiorowski placed 15th among astartes in K-BB% (among those who logged at least 60 innings) with a 21.5% K-BB%.
His 3.56 xFIP is right in line with his xERA, suggesting that he should see prominent positive regression in his first full season. Additionally, his SIERA (3.45) placed him 22nd among starting pitchers in this range, sitting alongside some great company in Brown (3.39 SIERA) and Jesus Luzardo (3.40 SIERA).
What makes Misiorowski's breakout campaign even more plausible is that he possesses a dominant fastball. This pitch (55.2% usage) generated a .298 xwOBA with a 32.3% whiff rate while sitting at 99.3 mph. This will be the driving force in Year 2.
Jacob Misiorowski's first career strikeout victim is Willson Contreras. pic.twitter.com/EcEaEkSF6p
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) June 12, 2025
His No. 2 pitch (his slider, 24.3% usage) was not as effective but should see some positive regression (.534 SLG - .435 xSLG). While his uneven command may hurt your WHIP, Misiorowski has elite strikeout skills and should sit near the mid-3.00s in ERA, as numerous ERA indicators suggest, while posting top-tier strikeout totals.
- Written by Andy Smith
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
ADP - 91.7
The player with the earliest ADP on this list is Eury Perez of the Miami Marlins. Perez had a delayed start to the 2025 season as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. He returned to the MLB bump in early June but stumbled through some growing pains in his first few starts.
In his first 16 innings post-injury, Perez logged a hefty 6.19 ERA with a modest 14:10 K:BB. However, as the season progressed, Perez began to show the similar upside he flashed as a rookie back in 2023. Over his final 79 1/3 innings, the right-hander held a 3.86 ERA with a dominant 0.96 WHIP. He struck out 91 hitters and walked only 22.
Additionally, during this stretch, Perez had three blow-up starts (where he allowed five or more runs). Removing those three outings, Perez would have posted an elite 2.21 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and an 88:17 K:BB over 69 1/3 innings.
Overall, he placed in the 83rd and 88th percentile in xERA (3.23) and xBA (.203), suggesting that many of those blow-ups should result in significant positive regression in 2026.
In 2025, Perez was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball and slider 74.3% of the time, with his four-seamer leading the way at 51.3% usage. However, as the season went on, Perez began to rely on his slider and reduced his four-seamer usage, as shown below.
Over his last four starts in September (excluding his seven-run explosion on September 3), the right-hander posted a 2.70 ERA with a 33:4 K:BB over 20 innings.
His No. 4 pitch (his changeup) stood out as he posted a 61.1% whiff rate with a 0.68 xwOBA (7.8% usage). If Perez can round out with a reliable No. 3 pitch, he may not only endure some of the expected positive regression but also emerge as a top-10 pitcher for fantasy.
- Written by Andy Smith
Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP - 275
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Braxton Ashcraft will start the season in the team's rotation. This comes on the heels of a very impressive rookie campaign for the 26-year-old. Ashcraft spent time as both a starter and a reliever in his first major league season, finishing the year with a 2.71 ERA and 71 strikeouts across 26 appearances (eight starts).
While Ashcraft was an effective reliever out of Pittsburgh's bullpen, he was far better as a starter. He had a 2.16 ERA and a 25.9% strikeout rate in his eight starts for the Pirates last year. He'll now look to build on those numbers in his first full season, and the right-hander has the tools to emerge as a breakout candidate in 2026.
In his rookie season, Ashcraft ranked in the upper half of the league in expected ERA (3.43), average fastball velocity (96.8 mph), average exit velocity (88 mph), chase rate (29.4%), strikeout rate (24.3%), and barrel rate (4.6%). Those metrics were backed by his nasty slider, which should continue to carry him on the mound. His slider had a 32.4% whiff rate last year, and opposing hitters had an expected .214 batting average against that pitch.
Braxton Ashcraft's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/ebzicT00WG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2025
With Ashcraft showing some nice things in his rookie season, the sky is the limit for the Pirates pitcher in Year 2. He ranked in the 73rd percentile in Pitching Run Value and 87th percentile in Breaking Run Value in 2025 and has looked solid on the mound so far this spring. At his 275 ADP in NFBC leagues, he's a massive steal.
Written by Joey Pollizze
Grant Taylor, RP, Chicago White Sox
ADP - 345
Taylor rocked a 54:15 K:BB over 36 2/3 IP with six saves and 10 games finished as a rookie, but a bloated 4.91 ERA/1.42 WHIP on a bad team won’t generate many headlines. Read between the lines, and you’ll see a league-worst .420 BABIP matched a league-best 1.42 FIP (min. 30 IP).
I recognize that some of you are here with little care for relievers, let alone non-closing relievers. I would implore you to head over and read my piece about building FrankenAces out of overlooked RPs!
Perhaps he winds up closing if Seranthony Dominguez stumbles (though Jordan Leasure also finished 2025 very strongly), but he’s still a clear breakout as a multi-inning reliever if his sabermetrics emerge through greater volume. Even only 70 innings could yield 100+ Ks here, though the stated goal is 100 (150 Ks?).
- Written by Nick Mariano
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