RADIO
Nick Mariano's 12 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Kazuma Okamoto, Max Muncy, Luke Keaschall, and more.
Bold predictions allow us writers to have a little fun while getting to flash those more outlandish takes that call out to us from between the spreadsheet cells. That's not to say that we aren't grounded in reason when doing these, though we'll be envisioning what the top-end outcomes would illustrate for our positions. Isn't that what every little kid dreams about when starting to play fantasy baseball?
March means we're ripping off drafts left and right, so here's a glimpse inside my mind, for better or worse! Please note that I wrote most of this up while on vacation in Hawaii, so if we hit on everything, then I'll lock in an annual vacation as a business expense. If I flop, then we're blaming it on sun damage.
Even if you want to read this to simply identify players who I expect to exceed expectations, then there's still plenty to be gained from these exercises! Be sure to stay ahead of the latest and greatest with all your fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X. Let's dig into my bold predictions for the 2026 season!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:- Fantasy baseball draft kit
- Fantasy baseball rankings
- Team Sync platform and Draft Assistant
- Fantasy baseball mock draft simulator
- Fantasy baseball draft cheat sheets
- Fantasy baseball closer depth charts
- Fantasy baseball prospects
Nick Mariano's Bold Predictions for 2026
Gunnar Henderson Stays Healthy, Goes 40/40
We’ve seen the calls for 30/30 or even 35/35, but these are boldies, daggumit. If you weren’t paying attention to baseball in January, you may have missed that Henderson battled a left shoulder impingement after diving for a ball early on. This came after he required an IL stint at the start of the year due to an intercostal strain.
Henderson said how he felt his swing “couldn’t plane out as early as I wanted to and just chopped down on the ball.” Despite playing in 154 games, he wouldn’t hit more than four homers in a month, popping only 17 in all after smacking 37 in 2024.
He won’t turn 25 until late June and could have another power jump in his 6-foot-3 frame. After all, saying someone who hit 37 HRs in his age 22/23 campaign will hit 40 isn’t wild. And though he’s a left-handed bat, that was the first year that Baltimore reverted the wall to a more neutral position.
And despite the power turbulence, he still showed promising signs in the box. Per FanGraphs, only three others among the 176 qualified bats bested Hendo’s 29.3% line-drive rate between June 1 and July 31. His .336 xBA in that span was tops by 19 points, though his .319 AVG was “only” 13th.
Then the batted-ball quality started to drop off in the final two months, which is when he started truly pushing it on the basepaths. He only stole three bases apiece in April, May, and June. This rose to five in July, then six in August, and 10 (!) in September, joining Juan Soto and Corbin Carroll as the only ones in double digits to wrap up the regular season.
Take that confidence into the new, healthy year, and let’s see him truly join the elites. Well, maybe he needs to improve against southpaws more first (career .678 OPS vs. LHP, .893 vs. RHP), but we’ll take the HR+SB juice first.
(Another September speed surger was Royce Lewis, who stole nine baggies for 12 total after not even attempting a swipe in 2024. One other of interest is…)
Caleb Durbin Ascends in Boston; Both He and Trevor Story Go 20/30
As if I’d get through this without a Story mention. After all, he was last year’s headliner and smashed it. He’s joined by Durbin, who hit 11 HRs with 18 SBs over 136 games for the Brewers as a rookie.
We’d seen Durbin start tapping into modest pop in 2024 at Triple-A for the Yankees’ organization, but the man is 5-foot-7. More importantly, he set the Arizona Fall League steals record in 2024 (29) after 31 swipes in 90 minor-league tilts.
But he only had 11 SBs through 114 contests, which left us confused as to where the wheels went. As we alluded to, Durbin kicked it into gear in the last month. He went 7-for-7 in 22 games, which is roughly a 50-steal pace.
While he was efficient with the bat, turning in elite contact with a 95th-percentile squared-up rate (33.3%), his exit velocity and power metrics are near the bottom. He could just pepper the Green Monster with liners and fail to impact with HRs, but his 20.4% Pull AIR rate was in the top third.
He only hit .156 on flyballs, but the Monster could change that. And more opportunities on base, whether they be long singles or doubles, will mean more chances to steal. We’re excited to see what Year 2 Durbin can do, especially after finding confidence in his timing down the stretch.
Kazuma Okamoto Bashes 35 HRs, 100 RBI
Okamoto was limited to 69 games after a freak collision with a hitter running down the first baseline resulted in a left elbow injury. And still the slugger bopped 15 HRs with a career-best triple slash of .327/.416/.598, logging just as many walks as strikeouts.
His blend of exceptional power and plate discipline in a top offense leaves me beyond intrigued. The raw pop trails that of Munetaka Murakami, but his discipline and offensive environment more than make up for that. And the pop is indeed still very real.
For no reason whatsoever here's a clip of Kazuma Okamoto taking a 99 MPH heater from Roki Sasaki and drilling it for a grand slam pic.twitter.com/kIwC0ggTyr
— Damon (@Damon98_) January 2, 2026
Over the last two years, Rogers Centre has been the fifth-friendliest venue for right-handed bats, per Statcast. This includes a 111 HR Park Factor, while Chicago’s Rate Field ranks 22nd (88). Only three teams scored more runs than Toronto’s 798 last year, and Okamoto is replacing the only key team loss since then (Bo Bichette). AL Rookie of the Year, eh?
Max Muncy Is a Top-5 3B; Ranks Higher Than Junior Caminero
Currently going as the 18th 3B, just after pick 200, on consensus draft boards, Muncy could take the production seen in 2023 and push even further. That year saw him hit 36 HRs with 200 R+RBI, but it came with a late-career Adam Dunn-esque .212 average.
But hey, prime Dunn was bopping 40 HRs with averages around .260, which is what a clear-eyed Muncy can do. After correcting astigmatism in his right eye, he walloped 19 HRs with 106 R+RBI with a .268/.406/.563 slash line in 72 games.
At 35, the boldest piece of this may be that he stays healthy enough to get there. I won’t hold the freak collision at third base that resulted in a left knee bone bruise against him, but he also had a right oblique strain in August.
Muncy hasn’t ever topped 144 games played, but did play 135-144 games between 2018-23 (playing in 58 of the 60-game 2020 campaign). So double that 72-game rate from last year, and you’d get 38 round-trippers with 212 R+RBI. He also snuck in four steals over 100 games, even with the serious knee issue tossed in.
Last year, Junior Caminero finished as the No. 2 3B thanks to 45 HRs, 203 R+RBI, seven steals, and a .264 AVG. Muncy now gets an offseason to train with the corrective lenses rather than simply making a midseason change, and the R+RBI potential grows with Kyle Tucker in the fold. Would an 85-40-120-5-.260 line be that surprising then?
Perhaps the second-boldest part of this will be that he doesn’t walk so much that he robs us of those precious batted-ball opportunities. From April 30 on, Muncy’s 14.5% Barrel/Batted Ball Event rate was right there with Caminero’s 14.8% clip. But due to walks, Caminero has an 11% Brl/PA mark to Muncy’s 9.2% rate.
Okay, but now remember that many are happy to get Caminero at pick 20. Add a zero to the end of that number, and you may find Muncy right there on the board. Caminero still has growth ahead of him, but is going back to hit at Tropicana Field after feasting at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
The Rays have also made swaps like Gavin Lux for Brandon Lowe and Nick Fortes for Danny Jansen. Jose Caballero was traded at last year’s deadline and will no longer feed hitters a lay-up RBI if he’s roaring around the basepaths. This will all add up!
Luke Keaschall Motors to 40 Steals, Splashes as Top-5 2B
Keaschall had a red-hot start to his MLB career, doused by a fractured right forearm suffered when he was hit by a pitch. In those seven games, he’d stolen five bases with three doubles and five walks to only two strikeouts. It was a small-sample-size buffet for content. He was also just 22 years old.
He finally returned in August with the same healthy plate discipline (10:14 BB:K) and some more pop (four homers, six doubles), but he only had three steals in 23 games. He made up for it with six swipes in September, but he looked off at the dish.
The Arizona State alum then suffered a torn UCL in his left thumb on a slide and needed offseason surgery to repair it. But now the bumps and bruises are out of the way! The 2023 second-round pick of Minnesota has been batting second in spring training, which is a prime breakout slot.
The Top-3 in 2025 Rookie wRC+ (Min 200 PA)
1. Nick Kurtz 170
2. Roman Anthony 140
3. LUKE KEASCHALL 134#MNTwinspic.twitter.com/ym0M4sQExm— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 23, 2025
Given a lengthy track record of great contact and a walk rate that often stays close to the K rate, which we did see between April and August, we’ll trust in that. Also, he hit .303 with a .903 OPS over 102 minor-league games in 2024, racking up 15 HRs and 23 SBs between Single and Double-A.
A hungry youngster who was on fire, only to have his rookie campaign quickly knocked down by a broken arm, will be out to regain that high. Let’s go along for the ride.
Grant Taylor & Griffin Jax form the next great FrankenAce duo
Taylor is aiming for 100 innings as a premier reliever ahead of the Jordan Leasure and Seranthony Dominguez frames. We saw him electrify as a rookie, posting a 54:15 K:BB over 36 2/3 IP with six saves and 10 games finished.
Of course, you wouldn’t guess that by the 4.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. I can’t recall the last time I saw someone’s WHIP match their FIP, but here we are. That 1.42 FIP was the best out of 475 arms with at least 30 IP, with Aroldis Chapman’s 1.73 mark next on the list.
Unfortunately, that 31-point gap was ever-so-slightly edged by a .420 BABIP being 33 points higher than anyone else’s. If you want to go with the more modest 2.91 xERA, he’s still a whopping two runs “behind.” The only other who can make that claim with an xERA below 3.00 is Cole Ragans (4.67 ERA vs. 2.67 xERA).
Devin Williams (4.79 ERA vs. 3.05 xERA) comes close, but we’ll stick with Jax (4.23 ERA vs. 3.25 xERA, 2.51 FIP). It seems that Edwin Uceta’s early injury may push Jax up in competitive circles, but Jax’s first week of Yahoo ADP is still around pick 195. Honestly, Garrett Cleavinger and Taylor could also be a fun duo.
Cam Smith Goes 25/25
Everyone was going gaga over Smith last year, as the 2024 first-rounder was lighting up spring training and leaving us wondering if the Astros would flip the switch after only 32 professional games. As you know, they did, and it was largely a disappointing learning experience.
But there were good times and encouraging signs for someone who is not only suddenly facing MLB pitching after just five games above High-A in the Cubs’ system, but holding up over a full big-league season. That’s a lot to ask of a 22-year-old!
While there’s plenty of room for variance and luck, Smith likely wore down in the second half. A lofty .378 BABIP bolstered the first-half .277 average and 116 wRC+, but that wasn’t all smoke.
He ripped off a 28.6% line-drive rate that was second among 155 qualified bats before the Midsummer Classic, per FanGraphs. And several others around him did not have the same thump. His 32% hard-hit rate dwarfed the sub-25% marks from the rest of the top four (Zach McKinstry, J.P. Crawford, Luis Arraez).
Having just turned 23, Smith could also find himself in a position to take advantage of the 95th percentile sprint speed. It’s not surprising that the focus will be on his hitting, fielding, and conditioning before we get to baserunning, but this column is a safe space where we can hope for it all to pop.
Smith only had eight steals as a rookie, though he was only caught once. That should earn more green lights! Let’s see where a full offseason with the big-league coaches brings him on the development curve. Will the pop mature early?
Cam Smith didn’t just homer today, he launched a missile.
440 feet, 107.5 exit velocity pic.twitter.com/ckO5pbU86O
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) March 9, 2026
(Dear reader, please note that my airplane encountered major turbulence upon finishing Smith’s section, and I had to stash the laptop. Does that mean Smith is doomed, or did I channel too much prognostication power for the airframe to handle? You decide!)
Quick Hit Bold Predictions
- Brenton Doyle Regains 30/30 Star Form
- Daylen Lile Leads MLB in Batting Average
- Bryan Abreu & Kirby Yates Are Top-8 RPs
- Chase DeLauter Plays 140 Games; Finishes Top-3 For AL Rookie of the Year (with Carter Jensen on the podium)
- Sal Stewart Wins NL RoY; Demands Second-Round Pick in 2027
More Fantasy Baseball Advice
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
