RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 24 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 24 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
Deep league players rise up! This week we'll be looking at two pitchers who are rostered in less than 5% of Yahoo! leagues in Kyle Freeland and Brad Lord. We'll also be deep diving another exciting rookie in Cleveland's Parker Messick.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of September 8.
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Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies – 2% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 131.1 IP, 5.41 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 10.8% K-BB%
09/05 vs. SD: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
Freeland was fantastic on Friday, putting one of his best starts of his entire career against the Padres. Freeland was darn near flawless, allowing just two hits and no walks with 10 strikeouts. It was a nice bounce back after being ejected due to a bench-clearing altercation in his last start on 9/2, facing just two batters total in that game. Usually, Colorado pitchers are a no go for fantasy managers. With a team ERA of 6.03 and 1.8 collective fWAR from their entire pitching staff, this isn’t exactly a group teeming with upside. Still, it’s hard to ignore a performance like this, especially in Coors Field. Can Freeland have an impact down the stretch, or was this just a one-off start?
Originally the eighth overall pick by Colorado back in 2014, Freeland was a pretty big prospect coming up through the minor leagues. Had he been drafted by another organization, he might’ve been a bigger prospect on a national level thanks to his size, deep arsenal, and strong command. Freeland works with a six-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, knuckle curve, cutter, sweeper, sinker, and changeup.
Freeland may have a plethora of pitches to choose from, but he relied heavily on two of them in this start, and that would be the four-seam fastball and knuckle curve. He threw those two pitches a combined 88% of the time, and his 40% curveball usage was his highest in any start all season. The four-seamer presents an interesting shift in approach for Freeland, who was using the sinker as his primary fastball prior to this season.
The sinker has been hammered for Freeland over the past few years, and this season batters are hitting .426 off the pitch with a .574 SLG and a .453 xwOBA. It doesn’t get much better than that for opponents, and Freeland has slowly been phasing the sinker out. He threw the sinker 26.6% of the time last season, but just 7% of the time this season.
Reducing his reliance on the sinker is a good thing for Freeland as this pitch has proven to be a liability for him out there. But is his four-seamer any better? A 91.6 mph offering, Freeland’s fastball isn’t exactly blowing anyone away. Not only is the pitch soft, ranking in the 12th percentile of fastball velocity, it also lacks significant movement. Freeland’s fastball only has a modest 15.1 inches of induced vertical break, and 7.9 inches of arm side run. These are not exceptional movement metrics, and Freeland’s fastball isn’t very deceptive as a result.
Opponents are hitting .333 with a .598 SLG and a .410 xwOBA against Freeland’s four-seamer this season. Those numbers are technically better than the numbers against his sinker, but they don’t inspire confidence. Freeland also has a pathetic 10.8% whiff rate with his fastball this season and managed just one whiff with it in this start, despite racking up 10 strikeouts and throwing 42 fastballs.
Freeland is also surrendering a 20-degree average launch angle and a 91.7 mph average exit velocity against, meaning opponents are sending the ball back harder than Freeland tosses it in. This four-seam fastball is not a good pitch, and Freeland will likely continue to struggle on the mound going forward because of it.
Freeland’s fastball may be a liability, but one pitch that has been excellent for him despite his struggles is the knuckle curve. An 82.6 mph offering, Freeland has thrown his knuckle curve 25.6% of the time this season. Batters have been stymied by this pitch, hitting just .188 with a .233 SLG and a .224 wOBA off Freeland’s knuckle curve this season. He also has a monster 39.2% whiff rate with this pitch, and racked up 13 of his 14 whiffs with the pitch on Friday, good for an unreal 87% whiff rate.
What makes the pitch so special? 46.4 inches of vertical drop and 2.3 inches of glove side movement make the pitch a sharp, sweeping curveball that can be effective against both righties and lefties, though he throws it to righties more often. Here’s an example from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 8, 2025
It can be nasty at times, and it makes me wonder why Freeland isn’t capable of a better strikeout rate. He has a 17.6% K rate on the season and a 17.3% K rate for his career, which is well below league average. I’m not saying he has to put up 10 strikeouts on a regular basis, but with how good his knuckle curve has performed I would expect a better strikeout rate, even for someone pitching in Colorado. Freeland has shown us who he is over nine seasons, having never cracked a K rate better than 20.5%. The knuckle curve looks like a good strikeout pitch, but Freeland is not a good strikeout pitcher.
He barely used the rest of his arsenal in this start, throwing four sweepers, four cutters, three changeups, and zero sinkers. The best pitch of those offerings is probably his sweeper, which has performed well enough this season, relative to his other pitches. Batters are hitting .247 off Freeland’s sweeper with a .348 SLG and a .276 wOBA. The expected stats are about the same with a .229 xBA, .323 xSLG, and .258 xwOA. He only has a 27% whiff rate with the sweeper this season, which is rather underwhelming for a breaking ball. Freeland only began throwing the sweeper this season. It’s not a revolutionary pitch that will elevate Freeland’s game to another level, but it does fortify a shaky repertoire that featured just one good pitch.
Verdict:
This was a truly dominant performance, but I can’t in good conscious recommend Freeland. He’s made some changes to his pitch mix this season, eschewing the sinker and relying more on his four-seam fastball. He’s also added a sweeper to the mix, giving him another breaking ball to complement his strong knuckle curve. It’s just that, these changes won’t fix Freeland. Yes, the sinker was a bad pitch that he needed to stop throwing, but the four-seamer has been crushed this season too. With poor velocity and movement, it’s just not a good pitch and MLB hitters will tee off on this thing, especially when he pitches in Coors.
His best pitch has been the knuckle curve, and that pitch was on fire for Freeland in this start, as he racked up 13 of 14 whiffs with the curve. It’s been a great pitch for him all season, and if Freeland starts throwing it more often he could find better success on the mound. Unfortunately, one good pitch doesn’t make a pitcher in the major leagues, so he’s a solid avoid, even in good matchups. It’s not even an option to use him on the road as Freeland has a 4.56 ERA and 1.59 HR/9 away from Coors Field this season. Perhaps with this curveball there’s a future for Freeland in the bullpen as a lefty curveball specialist, or perhaps there’s a future for him as a starter outside of Colorado, but he’s not a viable starter for fantasy at this time.
Brad Lord, Washington Nationals – 4% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 103.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 11.5% K-BB%
09/06 @ CHC: 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
Lord bounced back in a big way on Saturday, holding the Cubs to just one run on two hits over five and two-thirds innings en route to his fifth victory of the season. It was a bounce back because Lord was hammered for 13 earned runs combined in the two starts prior to this one. Lord has gone between the rotation and bullpen a few times this season, but he’s firmly entrenched in the rotation for the rest of the season. Mainly because Washington lacks pitching depth, but it still affords Lord an opportunity to prove himself as a big league starter and as a fantasy option.
Originally an 18th-round pick by Washington back in 2022, Lord was not much of a prospect coming up through the Nationals’ system. Fangraphs had him ranked as Washington’s number 31 prospect in their 2025 midseason club prospect rankings, a poor ranking for a 25-year-old righty. Lord works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup.
Lord’s most used pitch this season has been the four-seam fastball, which he throws 50.5% of the time. It was his most used pitch against the Cubs as well, throwing it 44% of the time. A 94.9 mph offering, Lord’s fastball is slightly above average in terms of velocity, but well above average in terms of movement.
His 10.5 inches of induced vertical break are nothing special, but Lord gets a whopping 15.6 inches of arm-side movement with his four-seamer. It’s the fourth-most movement on a four-seamer among qualified pitchers, and the most arm-side movement for a righty in the majors. Here’s a look at Lord’s pitch movement profile.
And here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 8, 2025
Good stuff from Lord there, and good location on that specific pitch. A fastball with this type of movement is especially effective near the upper part of the zone where batters must try and catch up to both the velocity and the movement. The fastball has proven to be an effective strikeout pitch for Lord this year. Lord has a 25.3% whiff rate with his four-seamer on the season, which is very good for a fastball. He got seven of his 12 whiffs with the fastball in this start. Lord has been inconsistent, but this fastball has some exceptional movement and should play in the majors despite average velocity.
Lord’s next most used pitch has been the slider, which he threw 21% of the time against Chicago. An 85.5 mph offering, Lord’s slider has done a solid job of getting outs for him this season. Opponents are hitting .229 off the pitch with a .398 SLG and a .287 wOBA. Unfortunately, the expected stats suggest that Lord could experience regression with this pitch, as he has a .275 xBA, .496 xSLG, and a .343 xwOBA with his slider this season.
The issue with this pitch is unremarkable movement. He has just 0.1 inches of drop and one inch of horizontal movement on his slider. That isn’t enough to consistently get swings-and-misses, and Lord has just a 29.7% whiff rate with his slider this season. That’s rather unimpressive, and it’s quite uncommon to see a pitcher who’s fastball and slider whiff rates are so close together. It speaks to both the strong quality of his fastball and the poor quality of his slider that each pitch generates whiffs at a similar rate. Ultimately, this slider is a below average offering, and it makes me wonder if Lord would benefit from developing another secondary pitch.
Lord’s next most used pitch was the sinker, which he threw 18% of the time against the Cubs at throws 19.2% of the time on the year. A 94.6 mph offering, Lord’s sinker also has strong movement with 4.7 inches of induced vertical break and 18 inches of arm-side run. Lord has done an excellent job at inducing weak contact with this pitch; opponents have an average exit velocity against of just 86.2 mph, and he has a -2-degree average launch angle against.
He has an incredible 71.4% ground-ball rate with this pitch as well. Batters are hitting .287 against the sinker, but with just a .356 SLG and a .297 wOBA. The pitch is tough to elevate, and if Lord incorporates the pitch more frequently he might become a solid groundball pitcher. His other pitches don’t induce groundballs at an exceptional rate, but the sinker certainly has thus far.
The last pitch up Lord’s sleeve is his changeup, which he throws 12.9% of the time. His usage was up a little bit against the Cubs at 17%, and Lord got two whiffs on six swings with the pitch as well. An 86 mph offering, Like with his fastballs, Lord’s changeup also has strong horizontal movement, averaging 17.6 inches. It also has 5.5 inches of induced vertical break. Opponents have only hit .227 off the pitch, but Lord has a .273 xBA, .449 xSLG, and .334 xwOBA against his changeup this season. He also has an underwhelming 21.1% whiff rate with this pitch. Considering how much movement the pitch has, one might expect more swing-and-miss from Lord.
He struggles to command this pitch with just a 43% zone rate, and batters aren’t chasing with just a 24.6% out-of-zone swing rate. He’s begun using the pitch a little more since rejoining the rotation on July 11, having used the changeup 15% of the time since that date. His swinging strike rate also jumped way up since that date, going from 6.96% prior to July 11 to 13.51% after July 11. Perhaps the changeup is the missing secondary option for Lord, but he will need to command it better and start trusting it against righties for it to be the missing piece.
Verdict:
Lord has some interesting aspects to his game, but ultimately he’s too raw and his repertoire is too shallow to trust in fantasy at this time of year. The Nationals are rebuilding, so they can let Lord find himself on the mound for the final month. For those of us chasing down a fantasy championship, we simply can’t trust a pitcher like this in our lineups. It would have to be a deep league such as NL-only for me to even entertain using Lord. The floor is just too low; he surrendered 13 earned runs in his two starts prior to this one.
Both of his fastballs have exceptional movement and I do think there could be a future for Lord in the bullpen. He has a 2.79 ERA as a reliever this season, but a 4.97 ERA as a starter. If he can develop another plus pitch he could solidify himself as a starter, but that’s a big if that would likely happen over the offseason. For redraft, he’s someone I would avoid in most circumstances. For deep dynasty, he's not a bad player to acquire on the cheap. This fastball has life, so if he can be had cheaply (or free ideally) then maybe stash him on your bench for next season and see what happens.
Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians – 26% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 15.5% K-BB%
09/07 @ TB: 6 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Messick was brilliant on Sunday, holding Tampa Bay to just one run over six innings while securing his second career victory. He’s been outstanding in his four starts since getting the call, posting a 1.93 ERA and 2.54 FIP in 23.1 innings. There’s been a bevvy of exciting pitching prospects promoted recently, could Messick be the latest young arm to be a difference maker?
Originally a second-round pick by Cleveland back in 2022, Messick had some prospect hype to his name prior to reaching the big leagues. Fangraphs had him ranked as the number 49 prospect in baseball in their mid-season update this year, and MLB pipeline had him as Cleveland’s number 12 prospect this season. Messick works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, sinker, and curveball.
Messick’s most used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, which he throws 37.2% of the time. His usage was down slightly in this start, throwing it just 30% of the time against Tampa Bay. A 92.9 mph offering, Messick is a soft-tossing lefty well below the league average. Messick does have solid movement with the pitch, including 16.7 inches of induced vertical break and four inches of arm-side run. That’s allowed the pitch to keep hitters somewhat in check, as opponents are hitting .250 off Messick’s fastball with a .464 SLG and a .301 wOBA.
It’s a small sample, but Messick is allowing a 92.2 mph average exit velocity against his fastball and a 42.1% line drive rate against. I would expect the line drive rate to regress, but it’s hard to say whether the average exit velocity will drop over time as well. 92.2 mph is high, but this is a soft pitch that can get pummeled if mislocated. Messick does have an impressive 25.9% whiff rate with the pitch, and got four whiffs with it in this start, so he’s shown a little swing-and-miss with it thus far. We will need to see more over a longer period of time to trust that he can get whiffs with it consistently. Messick had some really impressive strikeout numbers in the minors, but it might be difficult for him to replicate those at the major league level with such a soft fastball.
Messick’s next most used pitch is the changeup, which is his signature pitch. An 84.6 mph offering, Messick’s changeup is noteworthy for its 2.7 inches of induced vertical break and 14.8 inches of arm-side run. It also has a higher spin rate than your typical changeup at 1852 RPM on average. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 8, 2025
Looks pretty good there, and this pitch was a big strikeout weapon for Messick in the minors,. He had a 45.6% changeup whiff rate in the minor leagues this season. Batters have hit .440 against the pitch in his four starts, but with a .239 xBA, .285 xwOBA, and zero extra-base hits. He also has a 31.8% whiff rate with the changeup and got four of his 10 whiffs with the pitch in this start. If Messick is going to be a plus strikeout pitcher, it’ll be because of this changeup.
Messick had increased sinker usage in this start, throwing his sinker 26% of the time on Sunday versus just 13.2% usage on the year. He only threw the sinker about 7.5% of the time in the minors as well. A 91 mph offering, Messick’s sinker has strong horizontal movement at 12.1 inches of arm-side run. He’s also had a 66.7% ground-ball rate and a -3-degree average launch angle against with the pitch so far.
With this strong movement the pitch can be tough to elevate, and if Messick throws it more often he could become more of a groundball pitcher. He’s had roughly average ground-ball rates in his minor league career, but this sinker has the ability to induce more groundballs for him. Incorporating more sinkers could be a good approach if his four-seamer starts to get hit, but we’ll need to see it for more than just one start.
Messick has two breaking balls at his disposal, though he barely threw the slider in this start, using it just 7% of the time and earning zero whiffs. An 86.5 mph offering, Messick’s slider has rather weak movement with 5.7 inches of induced vertical break and 7.1 inches of glove-side break. Here’s an example of the pitch.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 8, 2025
It doesn’t exactly jump off the screen, and Messick has a pitiful 12% whiff rate with the pitch so far. That is quite bad for a breaking ball, and it might mean that Messick is always a below average strikeout pitcher. He really only has one good strikeout pitch, and that’s the changeup. The slider has proven effective in suppressing hard contact, with an 85.2 mph average exit velocity and a 18-degree average launch angle against.
Batters have struggled against this pitch, hitting just .188 with a .188 SLG and a .197 wOBA. The .214 BABIP against his slider will certainly regress, but he does have a .158 xBA, .239 xSLG, and .200 xwOBA against his slider thus far. It may not be a strikeout pitch, but this could be good enough at inducing weak contact that it’s a valuable weapon for Messick.
Messick rounds out his repertoire with a 76.7 mph curveball, which he’s thrown 11.7% of the time so far. The curveball is a low spin offering at 2246 RPM, but Messick does get -5.2 inches of induced vertical break and 14.2 inches of glove-side movement with the pitch. He’s primarily thrown the pitch to righties, but since he has such a good changeup this curveball would serve more as a set up pitch than a strikeout pitch.
Messick has mostly used the curveball as the first pitch or when in even or hitter-friendly counts. Opponents are hitting just .125 off the pitch, but have a .324 xBA and .448 xSLG. The curveball is a solid pitch that serves its purpose, but Messick likely won’t be racking up whiffs and strikeouts with it in the majors.
Verdict:
Another week, another exciting young pitching prospect to evaluate. Although, Messick is a little less enticing than some other recent promotions. His 92.9 mph four-seam fastball leaves something to be desired, even if it has plus drop and break. It’s been hit to the tune of a 92.2 mph average exit velocity and a .464 SLG. The movement does help Messick get whiffs with the pitch, but it can be hit hard when mislocated.
Messick’s signature pitch is an 84.6 mph changeup, and he’s gotten a fair number of whiffs with the pitch so far. Messick’s changeup has enough movement that it can serve as a primary strikeout pitch, though I’m not sure the rest of Messick’s arsenal is good enough to consistently produce plus strikeout rates. His slider and changeup have not been generating whiffs, and they are not plus pitches based on velocity or movement.
He upped his sinker usage big time in this one, and that could make Messick a decent groundball guy if he continues down this path. This was a big deviation in pitch mix for Messick, so we’ll have to see if it continues in future starts. Messick doesn’t look like a game-changer in the way that several other recently promoted pitching prospects do, but he could be a decent streamer down the stretch. I’m not ready to trust him in tough matchups yet. Fortunately, his next start comes Saturday against the White Sox, and that is a prime streaming spot.
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