MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/29/2025)

August 29, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/29/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Willson Contreras, Vinnie Pasquantino, Alex Freeland, and Byron Buxton!

It is a typically large, full-to-be-exact slate for this Friday, August 29, 2025, which means we can look to take advantage of hitters in plenty of excellent conditions. Tonight, we have hitters with great pitching matchups. Additionally, we have some warm weather all across the nation as we continue through the dog days of summer. There are numerous good spots to consider, but we need to narrow down the selections, which is exactly what I will attempt to do in this article.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use these plays in a round robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, August 29, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/29/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Friday, August 29:

• Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals
• Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
• Alex Freeland, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Willson Contreras OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 - DraftKings)

We are going to start tonight's party off with Willson Contreras of the St. Louis Cardinals, as he has been on a pretty solid heater recently. Over the previous two weeks, Contreras has posted an OPS of .841 and smacked a total of three home runs. Two of these home runs have come over the previous week as well. On the season, he has hit a total of 19 home runs while putting up respectable power metrics.

Overall, Contreras has posted an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph, which ranks him in the top 21% of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate of 34%, ranking him in the top 41% of the league. Additionally, he has posted a Barrels/PA mark of 9.2%, which ranks him inside the top 8% of the league. He will be up against Cincinnati Reds right-hander Zack Littell, which is also good news for Contreras, as he has hit 14 of his 19 home runs off right-handed pitchers this season.

Littell, meanwhile, has struggled mightily with the long ball. Overall, he has allowed a total of 28 home runs, 16 of which have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. The metrics under the hood also tell us that Littell has been awful and not just unlucky. He has allowed an average exit velocity of 84.4 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 2% of the league. He has also posted a Barrels/BBE mark of 6.2%, which ranks him in the bottom 6% of the league. Lastly, Littell has allowed 27.9% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 8% of the league.

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 - DraftKings)

We are going to go back to a familiar face with our second player in this article in Vinnie Pasquantino. Pasquantino was mentioned here by me last week, and fortunately, we got a home run out of him. Tonight, he will be up against Detroit Tigers right-hander Chris Paddack, who has had some struggles of his own with the long ball. Overall, he has allowed a total of 23 home runs, with 14 home runs coming off the bats of left-handed hitters like Pasquantino. The metrics also tell us he has struggled quite a bit.

Overall, Paddack has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.5 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 8% of the league. He has also allowed 25.9% of baseballs to be 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 20% of the league. Paddack has also struggled quite a bit recently, as he has allowed a total of six home runs across his previous four starts. He has also allowed multiple home runs in two of those four starts.

Meanwhile, Pasquantino has remained hot, having posted an OPS of 1.001 with six home runs over the previous two weeks. These numbers should come as no surprise, given his power metrics. Overall, he has posted an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, which ranks him in the top 27% of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate of 34%, ranking him in the top half of baseball.

Pasquantino has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, as noted by his .846 OPS and 23 home runs against them. Look for him to stay hot against Paddack in tonight's matchup. His hits+runs+RBI prop is also worth a look in tonight's game for those who are interested.

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Alex Freeland OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+650 - DraftKings)

Our next player is largely unknown, which is why we are getting pretty solid odds on Alex Freeland tonight. That being said, he is a wildcard and makes the most sense as a smaller unit play. Freeland has burst onto the scene a bit, having smacked two home runs over his previous six games. He has also performed rather well against right-handed pitchers, like his opponent tonight, Zac Gallen.

Overall, Freeland has posted an OPS of .735 against right-handed pitchers, with both of his home runs coming against them. He has also hit the ball rather hard, as noted by his average exit velocity of 91.0 mph, which ranks him in the top 23% of the league. He has also posted a hard hit rate of 35.6%, which ranks him in the top 30% of the league.

Gallen, on the other hand, has struggled mightily this season. Overall, he has allowed a total of 26 home runs, 11 of which have come against left-handed hitters. Gallen has also given up a ton of hard contact this season. He has allowed an average exit velocity of 83.9 mph, which ranks him in the bottom 3% of the league. He has also allowed 28.1% of baseballs to be hit 95+ mph, ranking him in the bottom 7% of the league.

Gallen has also allowed a 1.5 HR/9 on the road, which is where he will be tonight in Los Angeles. I feel pretty certain that he will allow at least one home run to this Dodgers' lineup, so might as well take a flier on one of their hitters with better odds.

Alex Freeland with his first MLB homer! pic.twitter.com/VWugtyuBtw

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 23, 2025

Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+280 - DraftKings)

Byron Buxton rounds out the article tonight, as he has now racked up 27 home runs on the season. He is also fresh off a two-home run game in his most recent action against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday night. He will be up against San Diego Padres left-hander Nestor Cortes, which is also good news for Buxton.

Of his 27 home runs, eight have come against left-handed pitching, while posting an OPS north of 1.000. He has also posted a hard hit rate of nearly 40%, which ranks him inside the top 10% of the league. Meanwhile, Cortes has allowed a total of 36 home runs to right-handed hitters since 2023. He has also given up five home runs to them this season across just 94 batters faced.

While Buxton's odds are not in our favor as much as some others in this article, he is probably the most likely to go deep tonight, given the matchup.

Byron Buxton gives the @Twins a quick lead in Toronto! pic.twitter.com/qJgLsh1Ptm

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2025

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