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Corbin looks at 2025 fantasy football strength of schedules and the best WR matchups for the early season. Target these fantasy football WRs in 2025 drafts.
Like any projection, we're basing our information on a relatively small sample of the previous season or multiple seasons. NFL teams discuss dividing their seasons into quarters or sections, allowing them to make adjustments. Even within those quarters or chunks, those teams will evolve and look different at various points in time.
The same process applies when projecting how defenses will improve or regress to begin the following season. Often, it's best to use betting odds as a first step, but then logic and data will signal the most probable approach. That said, we'll use the defensive coverage data from 2024 to project which receiver matchups might be friendly to begin the 2025 season.
For simplicity, we're examining the defenses that allowed the most fantasy points per dropback, sorted by different coverages and looks. We'll also consider any defensive coordinator changes for those teams, with a potential impact on coverage tendencies in 2025. Reach out if you have any questions. Most of the data and information came from the WR/CB matchups articles you may have seen from last season.
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Reviewing the Cowboys Secondary
- Week 1: DAL at PHI
- Week 2: DAL vs. NYG
- Week 3: DAL at CHI
- Week 4: DAL vs. GB
The Cowboys secondary allowed the most fantasy points per dropback among their primary coverages. They were especially shredded when using man coverages (worst) and single-high coverage (third worst). Sometimes defenses might be strong against the run game, but beatable through the air.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys allowed the eighth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt, indicating they struggled against rushers and receivers. The Cowboys haven't made any significant investments in their secondary besides a third-round cornerback, Shavon Revel Jr.
Trevon Diggs might not be ready until after the first month of the season, but they acquired Kaiir Elam from the Bills via a trade in March. Elam was the second-best defensive back for the Bills behind Christian Benford toward the end of the season, with Elam allowing a 13 percent target rate and 1.40 yards per route run. That might not be a difference-making move, but they're already having to eat into their depth early in 2025.
Early Season Receiver Targets Against the Cowboys
The Eagles, Giants, Bears, and Packers will face the Cowboys in the first four games of the season. No one is sitting A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Malik Nabers, and DJ Moore. However, there might be some sleeper appeal for Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Other deep sleepers include Romeo Doubs and Darius Slayton.
Christian Watson is on the physically unable to perform list, and Golden might be able to perform well against man coverage since they have similar skill sets.
Golden's route running and stop/start ability would lead to him beating the Cowboys secondary. Slayton and Doubs were mediocre against man coverage, so they probably shouldn't be targets. Meanwhile, Reed was much better against zone coverages, so he could continue to boom-or-bust to begin the season.
Reviewing the Falcons Secondary
- Week 1: ATL vs. TB
- Week 2: ATL at MIN
- Week 3: ATL at CAR
- Week 4: ATL vs. WAS
The Falcons secondary allowed the most fantasy points per dropback last season, with similarly poor results against man (fourth worst) and single-high coverages (fifth worst). Raheem Morris liked to run the ninth-most Cover 3 and the second-highest rate of Cover 6, or quarters coverage.
That indicates the Falcons prefer to use a zone-heavy defense, utilizing zone coverages at the ninth-highest rate. The Falcons brought in Jeff Ulbrich, who served as the Jets defensive coordinator. That's notable because the Jets ran the seventh-highest percentage of man coverage in 2024. Ulbrich might bring more of the man-coverage mindset to the Falcons.
The visual below shows the Falcons' cornerback data heading into Week 17.
The Falcons secondary allowed the most fantasy points per game to receivers out wide. They still have Mike Hughes and A.J. Terrell as their primary outside cornerbacks. It might not be completely on Terrell or Hughes because Terrell allowed the 11th-lowest fantasy points per route and the eighth-fewest yards per route. Hughes didn't limit production on a per-route basis like Terrell, but he still allowed 1.01 yards per route last season.
That suggests the Falcons might be better off using more man coverage with Terrell and Hughes because that's where they grade better. If the Falcons secondary improves under Ulbrich, we guess they play more man coverage, aligning with their strengths.
Early Season Receiver Targets Against the Falcons
The main target should be Emeka Egbuka on the Buccaneers offense. He has multiple paths to being relevant out of the slot or some routes out wide. We laid out the arguments for Egbuka, looking at five sleeper receivers priced as a WR3. It's smart to bet on a first-round rookie out of Ohio State. Marvin Harrison Jr. was overpriced in Year 1, and the market corrected in Year 2.
Finding value among the Panthers receivers may be the play here, especially with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker. Adam Thielen might be a sneaky, boring option because he produced an above-average yards per route run (2.77) against man coverage, with Coker leading the team (3.01).
If the Falcons continue to lean more zone-heavy, Thielen and Coker might be the better bets earlier in the season. Coker's playing time might be the biggest wild card, though, so it looks like stock up for Thielen in the early season matchup against the Falcons.
The Commanders added Deebo Samuel Sr. However, we might discount Samuel's underlying metrics and production because the mid-season pneumonia likely caused some down numbers. That's evident by Samuel's 2.85 yards per route against zone coverages while commanding 25 percent of the targets in 2023.
Samuel still showed the elite yards after the catch skills, ranking third in 2024. Assuming the Commanders use Samuel in a similar role to his time with the 49ers, there might be 1-2 spike weeks to begin the season. The other wild card might be the Commanders facing the Packers in Week 2 since they deploy zone coverage at the third-highest rate in 2024. However, the Packers secondary limited receivers with the eighth-lowest fantasy points per dropback when using zone coverages.
If the Falcons shift more man-heavy, it won't play into the skills of Samuel and Terry McLaurin.
Update - Coker has been placed on the IR, and Thielen has been traded to the Vikings and will not play for the Panthers in their Week 3 matchup against the Falcons.
Reviewing the Jaguars Secondary
- Week 1: JAX vs. CAR
- Week 2: JAX at CIN
- Week 3: JAX vs. HOU
- Week 4: JAX at SF
The Jaguars ran man coverage at the second-highest rate in 2024 while allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per dropback. Opposing offenses feasted against the Jaguars, especially against single-high looks, resulting in the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback.
The Jaguars bled fantasy points through the air, but also were a run-funnel defense. They allowed the sixth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. The main additions to their secondary included Travis Hunter, plus two safeties on Day 2 (Caleb Ransaw) and Day 3 (Rayuan Lane III).
We can't overlook the Jaguars' signing of nickel cornerback Jourdan Lewis to a three-year deal worth $30 million. Lewis allowed under one yard per route (0.94) and a below-average 0.23 fantasy points per route run. Furthermore, Lewis allowed the 11th-fewest yards per slot coverage snap among qualified slot corners. That might make the projected slot receiver a slight downgrade when facing Lewis.
Early Season Receiver Targets Against the Jaguars
We discussed the Panthers receivers earlier. Thielen might be the cheapest early season receiver to help chaperone teams through the first handful of weeks. However, he projects to face Lewis in Week 1, which looks like a sneaky, fun matchup.
Unsurprisingly, Nico Collins should smash, assuming the Jaguars continue deploying a high rate of man coverage. However, Anthony Campanile is the Jaguars defensive coordinator, coming over from the Packers as their linebackers coach and run game coordinator. The Jaguars may deploy more zone-heavy coverages than the Packers (third most). That would potentially impact how we examine their secondary.
Christian Kirk joins the Texans as their primary slot receiver, and he will face his former team. Kirk sneakily earned more targets when facing man coverage, with similar production in yards per route against man and zone defenses. He was deployed in a unique role with more downfield usage, ranking 14th in air yards per target (13.7). That's notable because Kirk had a 9.2 in 2022 (No. 75) and 9.9 air yards per target in 2023 (No. 64).
Jayden Higgins was one of the 11 receiver prospects who averaged over 2.50 yards per route against man and zone coverages in 2024. Higgins profiles like an outside receiver with athleticism, which will be a beneficial pairing in two-receiver sets alongside Collins. We're not relying on Higgins to begin the season hot, but you can review my research on Higgins as a WR3 to target.
This isn't actionable to begin the season, but keep tabs on Jaylin Noel. He might be buried behind Kirk as the backup slot receiver. However, Noel has a knack for finding the soft spots and dominating zone coverage, with the fifth-highest yards per route.
There have been many arguments over Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, but we're not here to nitpick small samples. Jennings had a breakout season in 2024 and was uber-efficient in Weeks 1-6, averaging 2.6 FPOE/G. He regressed slightly in efficiency, but still finished with a strong 29.2 percent first-read target share across the season.
The visual below shows the season-long advanced receiving metrics for the 49ers.
The 49ers like to mix their receivers around the formation, not having them slotted into specific roles. That's notable because Jennings played in the slot 41.8 percent of the time, with Pearsall at 39.3 percent. Jennings and Pearsall averaged over 2.00 yards per route run against man coverage. Meanwhile, Jennings was significantly better against zone coverages.
The visual below shows the season-long receiving data for the 49ers and their average separation scores.
When we filter by Weeks 17-18, when Pearsall popped off, he garnered 2.72 yards per route out wide and 3.04 in the slot. Meanwhile, Jennings was less efficient out wide (2.00), yet had a whopping 50 percent target rate and 2.50 yards per route in the slot. If the late-season usage maintains, Jennings might have the edge as the 49ers' primary slot receiver.
Jennings projects as the safer volume bet, with Pearsall being the efficient and explosive player who will have highs and lows. There have been discussions about fantasy managers needing to invest in the 49ers offense in 2025. That's mainly because of their schedule and the pass-heavy potential since their defense might be below average. That should lean us into investing in both Jennings and Pearsall.
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