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Kevin analyzes four hitter fantasy baseball sleepers who are surging for Week 19. Are they breakouts or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
It's now the 12th edition of Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs. If you've been keeping up with us, you know we've been delivering on results throughout the season. The expected stats are our guiding light, and they usually lead us in the right direction. So let's keep following them!
Heading into Week 19, there's a bit of digging we need to do to help you find those diamonds in the rough that can help you win your fantasy championship. Buying into current hype can be easy, but understanding luck can set you apart from the rest of your league.
We'll break down four hitters for you this week. August is a very important month in the MLB schedule. It's a make-or-break time not just for teams vying for playoff spots but also for fantasy managers aiming for playoff spots as well. Today, we'll break down Anthony Volpe, Christian Walker, Royce Lewis, and Giancarlo Stanton. Now, let's get into it.
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All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, August 3rd.
Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees
2025 Stats: .715 OPS, 97 OPS+, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 51 R, 14 SB
Anthony Volpe came into the league in 2023 with some decently high expectations, especially given the fact that he plays in the Bronx. But he hasn't quite been able to break through the way Yankees fans want him to fully. He's having his best overall season at the plate, hitting for a 97 OPS+.
But his OPS has been dwindling month by month. In July, he hit seven homers, the most of any month. But that came along with a .604 OPS, the lowest he's posted in a month this whole season. Things in August look to be getting better with Volpe going 5-12 in a weekend series against the Marlins. Will that help him break out? Or is this series just a mirage? Let's find out.
Since the all star break, Anthony Volpe’s attack angle has been 13 degrees, and his attack direction is just 1 degree oppo.
The results? A 178 wRC+ and a 1.035 OPS. Never listen to anyone saying he needs to “swing level and slap it the other way” pic.twitter.com/SHyVWoTtGi
— Kin Knows Ball (@_24kin) August 2, 2025
As always, let's start with Volpe's plate approach. His strikeout rate is up just a touch, sitting at 23.8% this season compared to last season's 22.6% mark. Neither number is concerning. His walk rate is up to 8.1% from 6.1% last season. That's in the 43rd percentile, getting him close to league average. That includes him posting just a 2.1% walk rate in July.
Before July, Volpe hadn't posted a walk rate below 9.6% in any month. It's worth noting that during July, he also had an 18.6% strikeout rate. Whatever happened in July seems to have led him to swing at more pitches instead of adopting a more patient plate approach.
His batted-ball profile for the season points to a very different player than we've seen in his first two seasons. He's hitting fewer grounders (dropping from 50.2% to 42.3%) and significantly more flyballs (increasing to 44.6% from 28.7%), indicating a concerted effort to get the ball in the air more often. That makes a lot of sense, seeing he already has 17 HR on the season and will likely surpass his career high of 21 HR.
An area that might be hurting him is that he's hitting fewer line drives. Previously, he'd seen his line-drive rate sitting closer to 21% but this season it's down to 13.1%. It's not the worst development, but it does tell us that some of the increase in fly-ball rate is leading to weaker flyballs rather than stronger line drives.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, though. We do see that Volpe is expecting positive regression, and his increased fly-ball rate has to do with that. In 2025, he has a .308 wOBA that's paired with a .320 xwOBA. July may have been one of his most unlucky months. The graph below shows Volpe's rolling xwOBA from the beginning of July through August 3rd:
That's a pretty steady rise that's showing he's progressing. It makes his July stats potentially a bit misleading. A .172/.196/.604 slash line in the month isn't inspiring by any means, but it looks like it should have been closer to a .700 mark to at least be close to league average.
Another sign that Volpe has been getting unlucky is his BABIP. He's posting a .253 BABIP this season. That mark was at .130 in July. Some of that makes sense with a more "all or everything" mentality at the place. That led to seven homers in the month, but not much of anything else.
With that low of a BABIP, we need to see just how hard he's hitting the ball. He holds a 44.1% hard-hit rate that puts him in the 54th percentile, which is also an increase over last year's 35.4% hard-hit rate. That helps confirm that BABIP is predicting positive regression for the 24-year-old who may be getting a bit unlucky.
ANTHONY VOLPE GAME-TYING HOME RUN IN THE NINTH INNING! pic.twitter.com/ESVs7FblHL
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) July 31, 2025
Now for the pitch mix. Volpe is expecting positive regression on each of the three pitches he sees the most: Four-seam fastballs, sliders, and sinkers. Four-seamers will be the most important one as he sees them 32.4% of the time. He hits them for a .333 wOBA to go along with a .356 xwOBA.
As for sinkers, this is one of the pitches he's best against. Seeing them 15.9% of the time, he hits them for a .348 wOBA to go with a .386 xwOBA. That's not an earth-shattering expected number, but it's a pretty decent jump we can expect on that pitch.
He needs to find a way to improve against sliders, though. He hits them for just a .269 wOBA to go along with a .281 xwOBA. It's an apparent weakness that pitchers will continue to try to exploit until he's able to turn things around. Last season, he hit sliders for a .286 wOBA and a .258 xwOBA, meaning he hasn't made any improvements on one of his most significant weaknesses. Pitches will likely throw him more when they have the chance.
One pitch that pitchers should try to avoid is the cutter. Volpe has feasted on cutters. Though he only sees them 7.8% of the time, he hits cutters for a .483 wOBA and a .439 xwOBA. Even though there's a negative regression predicted, that's an excellent floor to have.
The last thing to note about Volpe is his platoon splits. Most righties are going to be better when facing lefties, but it's undeniable Volpe's a different hitter against lefties. He's posting an .833 OPS against lefties and a .670 OPS against righties. If he gets a chance against southpaws, he's going to rake. But against righties, it's a much bigger question mark.
Verdict: Volpe has gotten unlucky at the plate this year, especially when considering what BABIP is predicting. Yet the jump it's predicting isn't all that high. That's likely because of his apparent change in mentality, where he's simply trying to hit more homers rather than putting the bat on the ball and letting it do the work.
For now, it's fine, especially with his xwOBA continually rising. He's going to see a jump, and it's going to feel great. But his ceiling isn't going to blow you away. With him being on 74% of rosters in Yahoo! leagues, he will best be used as a streaming option against southpaws. Tie in the positive regression to an excellent matchup, and he'll do damage that you will appreciate.
Christian Walker, 1B, Houston Astros
2025 Stats: .696 OPS, 93 OPS+, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 45 R, 1 SB
To say Christian Walker's first year in Houston hasn't gone the way anyone intended might be an understatement. He's hitting for an OPS+ below 100 for the first time since 2021 and only the second time since he started getting regular playing time.
But his fate started to turn a bit in July as he returned more to his usual self, posting an .833 OPS in the month, well above the previous .646 high he posted in June. Was this a sign of things to come for the 34-year-old? Or was that a bit of a fake-out? Let's dive in.
Christian Walker hits a TOWERING blast over the Green Monster! pic.twitter.com/BFAstyCzum
— MLB (@MLB) August 2, 2025
Right off the bat, we can assume that maybe Walker just hasn't seen the ball as well this year while getting used to a new home stadium. After all, it's hard not to like hitting at Chase Field. But his strikeout rate is up (26.3% this year vs. 24.1% last year) and his walk rate is way down (6.5% this year vs 10% last year). Both of those are worse than his career marks (9.3% walk rate, 23.1% strikeout rate).
The walk rate is more concerning to me, especially since he's struggled to make many quality hits this year. When you're struggling, it's best to start seeing the ball better and drawing walks. A decrease here certainly has hurt him, as it's his lowest walk rate since 2018, when he made just 53 plate appearances.
But let's move on to his batted-ball profile. From here, we see that there's not a whole ton of deviation from who he was last year when he hit for a 119 OPS+. His ground-ball rate is slightly up (39.0% vs 37.9% last season), his fly-ball rate is a little down (43.1% vs 46.9% last year), and his line-drive rate is up (17.9% vs 15.3% last year). His numbers this year line up almost perfectly with his career marks, so this is kind of who he is.
One key drawback is his HR/FB rate. For three straight seasons, he posted marks of 15.7% or better. This year, it's down to 12.0%, telling us he may not be barreling the ball as often as we're used to. With 15 HRs on the season, he may come close to his mark of 26 that he put up last season.
As we move onto the expected stats, we do see there's some positive regression headed Walker's way. His .305 wOBA is paired with a .314 xwOBA. He's also not seeing many significant drops in hard-hit rate or barrel rate, at least compared to who he's generally been over the past four seasons.
His barrel rate sits at 11.4% and his hard-hit rate sits at 44.5%. Both are lower than last year's marks (13.3% barrel rate, 48.0% hard-hit rate), but all match up with who he's been since 2022. Since his lowest OPS+ in that time has been 119, we can see that he's at least hitting the ball the same when he makes contact. The biggest reason for the drop might be his subpar walk rate and strikeout rate.
CHRISTIAN WALKER IS THE OWNER OF DODGER STADIUM I FEAR
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) July 6, 2025
If we look at the splits, it may simply be more critical for Walker not to strike out as often. His strikeout rate in July dropped to 23.5%, his lowest mark in any month this season (outside of three days in August). Some of that was driven by a high BABIP (.391 in July), but his full-season mark of .295 tells us it was well below .300 before the month started. Positive regression was kicking in for him.
Now let's check in on the pitch mix. Walker sees four-seam fastballs and sinkers the most. Both are expecting negative regression, though the floors aren't all that terrible. Walker hits four-seamers for a .342 wOBA to go with a .334 xwOBA. That's somewhat true. He hits sinkers for a .399 wOBA to go with a .370 xwOBA—a bigger gap, but still a strength in his arsenal.
Where he's expecting a good amount of positive regression is against sliders. He's hitting them for a .290 wOBA, which is in line with his .268 wOBA/.290 xwOBA results against sliders last season. But this year his xwOBA is up to .350 on the pitch. That's a massive improvement that will significantly reduce the negative regression that four-seamers and sinkers are predicting.
A pitch that pitchers may try to key in on more often against Walker is a changeup. He has not fared well against them this year, hitting them for a .200 wOBA to go along with a .201 xwOBA. Last year, these were a strength for him (.429 wOBA, .424 xwOBA), so he may be getting fooled against them more often. Any pitcher with a good changeup will likely prioritize this against Walker.
Verdict: Walker's case is a bit murky. Yes, we can see that there's some positive regression still to come, but how much of the good stuff happened in July that we've now missed out on? His July numbers were significant and a return to form, but the .391 BABIP has me concerned that maybe it was a bit of overachieving that was happening.
At 78% owned in Yahoo! leagues, you're not likely to be able to snag him and take a risk-free shot on the 34-year-old. But I don't think fantasy managers need to make drastic moves to try to acquire him after a hot July. Ride with him if you've got him, but don't expect July's numbers to be the norm. He should settle in around a league-average 100 OPS+ soon, but I don't think we can expect 120 or more throughout the rest of the season.
Royce Lewis, 3B, Minnesota Twins
2025 Stats: .690 OPS, 88 OPS+, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 21 R, 1 SB
Royce Lewis missed most of the early season with a hamstring injury. It caused him to start slow in May, but he caught fire in June and posted a .990 OPS. But that was throughout just eight games before injuring the same hamstring again.
After a stint on the 10-day IL, he returned in July, hitting for a solid .797 OPS. Outside of May, his stats have been pretty solid, but it's only been one month of solid ball. So was his July for real? Or are we about to be faked out? Let's see what the stats say.
A 451-foot solo shot from Royce Lewis 😮 pic.twitter.com/7huFGhBcMx
— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2025
Lewis's plate approach shows a much more concerted effort to get the ball in play this season. That's showcased perfectly by his decrease in his strikeout rate, dropping from 22.8% last season to 13.9% this season. His walk rate is down slightly, too, but it remains relatively consistent from season to season.
That strikeout rate is well below Lewis' career norms, whether professionally or in the minors. So we may have to view it with a grain of salt. He is whiffing on pitches less this season, which may make it more real, but the drastic drop suggests we might need to wait longer to see if this is who he's becoming.
As for his batted-ball profile, we're seeing a decent improvement in one area. His ground-ball rate is dropping from 36.0% to 35.2%, so it's pretty much negligible. His fly-ball rate is dropping too, from 45.9% to 43.6%. A slight drop, but between that and the drop in grounders, it can only mean an increase in line drives.
That rate has risen from 18.0% to 21.2%. That puts his batted-ball profile in a place that's eerily similar to what it was in 2023 when he hit for a 149 OPS+. The main difference is a drop in HR/FB rate, coming in at just 6.9% this season compared to 15.7% last season and 21.1% in 2023.
So he must not be hitting the ball hard enough, right? Well, that isn't quite the case. His hard-hit rate of 45.5% is the highest of his career. In 2022 and 2023, those numbers sat at 40.0% and 42.0%. So it's not a question of if he's hitting it hard enough, but rather if he's barreling it more.
And this is where we get a somewhat clearer understanding of things. His barrel rate of 9.1% is lower than his marks in the past two seasons, which were sitting at 11.2% and 11.7%. He's simply just getting on top of the ball a touch more. But he's still hitting it hard, and that's key.
The expected stats all point towards positive regression for the 26-year-old. His .302 wOBA is paired with a .347 xwOBA, a massive jump in production. That .347 xwOBA ranks in the 67th percentile and matches former teammate Carlos Correa. That wOBA would translate close to a 120 OPS+.
His BABIP may also predict positive regression, currently at .269 for the season. Lewis' BABIP has generally been all over the place in his four seasons with the Twins. It's ranged from .251 to .354, so it's hard to find a better baseline with him. But if we assume .300 is what BABIP should be, then positive regression it is.
As we move onto the pitch mix, we can see that he's expecting positive regression for each of the top five pitches he faces. Each also has a jump of at least 44 points, giving us a lot to love.
Royce Lewis - Minnesota Twins (2)
pic.twitter.com/DXmlrLW3aI— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 14, 2025
The headlines are four-seamers (.342 wOBA, .397 xwOBA), sliders (.305 wOBA, .351 xwOBA), and sinkers (.350 wOBA, .394 xwOBA). These pitches make up about 60% of the pitches he faces. With a .350 wOBA floor on 60% of the pitches he faces, that gives us great confidence that the expected positive regression is real.
The biggest pitch he's expecting positive regression on will be sweepers. He's only seeing them 8.9% of the time and is hitting them for just a .197 wOBA, but that's paired with a .367 xwOBA. Last season, he hit them for a .338 wOBA with a .307 xwOBA, so .367 may be a bit ambitious, but he should see a relatively big jump regardless.
The main weakness for Lewis right now is against cutters. They're the only pitch he's facing with an xwOBA below .300 (.210 wOBA, .261 xwOBA). I'd expect that pitchers with a solid cutter focus on using it against him and avoid the other pitches he's expecting to crush.
One other aspect of Lewis' profile to note is that his home-road splits are pretty drastic this season. At home, he's been horrendous, posting a .522 OPS. While on the road, he's posting a .917 OPS. This hasn't been a constant trend in his career, but in this small bubble in 2025, it's worth noting.
Verdict: Lewis has very clearly been a victim of bad luck this season. Too many signs are pointing upwards for me not to recommend him as clearly a player you should buy into. With him on 58% of rosters, there's a decent chance that he's on your waiver wire and you should snag him up immediately.
The only cause for concern with Lewis is one we're all too familiar with, and that's his injury history. He hasn't been able to stay healthy for a full season, but when he's healthy, he's a force. Roll with him until the end, but make sure you've got backup plans ready just in case.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, New York Yankees
2025 Stats: .846 OPS, 132 OPS+, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 17 R, 0 SB
You know the name. One of the Yankees' top sluggers, Stanton has always been one for hitting the ball hard and grading out well by the expected stats. His 132 OPS+ is enticing enough on its own. The fact that he's only rostered in 52% of Yahoo! leagues? A bit surprising for a player of his caliber.
But he's in this article for a reason. His .981 OPS in July was spectacular, but should fantasy managers expect that to keep up for the rest of the season? Let's find out.
This is one of the craziest HRs I’ve ever seen
Giancarlo Stanton, 17 degree launch angle to dead CF pic.twitter.com/EqLyAhx5nx
— And That's Baseball (@AndThatsBB) August 5, 2025
His 8.1% walk rate and his 33.3% strikeout rate are more or less who he's been at the plate for the last few seasons, though these numbers are slightly worse than what we're used to. In 2023, he had a 9.9% walk rate and a 29.9% strikeout rate, and he's slowly progressed to where he's at now.
His batted-ball profile shows a bit of a changed approach from who he's been in his career, at least so far. His ground-ball rate is down significantly. It's at 29.5% this season compared to 38.8% last season. If this keeps up, it'd be the lowest ground-ball rate of his career by just over five percent. Generally, a good thing!
That correlates with an increase in fly-ball rate, jumping to 48.7% from last year's 43.8% mark. That would also be a career high for Stanton, giving us two extreme changes in his batted-ball profile. He's also seeing an increase in his line-drive rate, jumping to 21.8% from last year's 17.4%.
All of these changes are generally good things. We're keeping the ball off the ground, getting it in the air more, and seeing more line drives. It's leading to a .268 batting average, the second-highest during Stanton's time as a Yankee.
So, what do the expected stats tell us, given that all of this looks pretty good so far?
Well, they're telling us there's a bit of fool's gold here. His .361 wOBA is paired with a .317 xwOBA. The expected negative regression itself is quite the fall, but it's also important to note that this is the lowest xwOBA of Stanton's career (at least within the Statcast era). That includes 2023, when he hit for just an 87 OPS+.
One reason his xwOBA may be predicting a rather significant fall is because of his .348 BABIP. Stanton does have two full seasons as a Yankee where his BABIP was well above .300 (.333 in 2018, .324 in 2021). But as of late, it's sat well below .300 (.227 in 2022, .210 in 2023, .281 in 2024). So this is another aspect of his game that's very different this season.
We can't assume much of the hits are soft, dinky hits either. Stanton regularly has hit the ball hard, and that's remained the same this year. His 53.8% hard-hit rate ranks in the 95th percentile, while his 14.1% barrel rate ranks near the 87th percentile. He profiles very closely to Atlanta's Matt Olson.
So why would xwOBA be predicting such a hard fall? I believe the answer lies in the fact that his increase in fly-balls may also correlate with his getting too under the ball. Cue the guy from Major League screaming, "It's too high," because he may actually be right for once.
His average launch angle is up to 19.1 degrees, another career high. That correlates with his Under Percentage (according to Baseball Savant) increasing to 35.9% from his 22.8% last year. What may have been home runs last year are turning into flyouts this year.
Now let's look at the pitch mix. He's hitting four-seamers for a .355 wOBA to go along with a .318 xwOBA. He had previously posted a .337 wOBA/.354 xwOBA mark last season, so the drop in xwOBA is a bit disappointing but not surprising given what we've uncovered so far.
The next two pitches he sees the most often, sinkers and sliders, are pitches he's clobbering. Sinkers are expecting negative regression (.526 wOBA, .429 xwOBA) while sliders are expecting positive regression (.460 wOBA, .526 xwOBA). Regardless of how you look at it, two pitches that have at least a .429 wOBA floor are fantastic to have in the arsenal.
Having the constant aura that Giancarlo Stanton has had his entire career should be illegal pic.twitter.com/6y2ctVrJS8
— Evil Empire (@octoberstanton) July 31, 2025
Beyond those three, we don't see much that would significantly impact production and make it noticeable. Curveballs (.329 wOBA, .157 xwOBA) and split-fingers (.800 wOBA, .374 xwOBA), but the sample size on those pitches may not be enough to determine anything real this season.
Two pitches I'd expect pitchers to stick with more often against Stanton are sweepers (.082 wOBA, .110 xwOBA) and changeups (.192 wOBA, .108 xwOBA). He wasn't strong against either last season, and that trend has continued into 2025. Pitchers who are solid with either of these pitches should stick with them against the 35-year-old.
Verdict: Stanton's case is a very confusing one. I can buy into the fact that negative regression is coming for him, but I don't believe it will be nearly as drastic as the 44-point gap that xwOBA predicts. His BABIP is unusually high for his batting profile in recent years, but he's still hitting the ball hard.
His issue lies in that he's getting just a bit too under the ball. The changes he's seeing in his profile overall are good, but he may be slightly off. Fantasy managers who want to sell high, I don't blame you. If he's on your waiver wire, pick him up and ride it out. But don't be overly eager to sell just because negative regression may be headed for him.
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