DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The 3M Open (2025)

July 22, 2025

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 20253M Open (2025). His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Here at RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our loyal readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, I am proud to announce that my typical Monday DraftKings article has been changed from a free article to a premium piece.

Everything from that article that people grew to love will be included here, as well as some extra information that we will discuss in Discord.

If you want to see a deeper dive, my new (free) article will also dive a little deeper into players from this piece.

TPC Twin Cities

7,431 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

• ATG is non-existent. Large surfaces with tons of water surrounding the course.

• The course superintendent has often called this venue a place that produces “Birdies + Train-wrecks.” They don't want to be the hardest venue in tour, which is why there are ample scoring spots, but the water is a true danger mark.

• Relatively wide fairways. Larger misses bring water right into play. Think Florida-style golf that rewards aggression.

• Proximity buckets from past iterations were:

0-100 9.2% 100-125 12.9% 125-150 16.1% 150-175 17.8% 175-200 21.4% 200+ 22.7%

• Dispersion of scoring marks: T10 Finishers

OTT - 20.6% APP - 36.9% ATG - 7.0% Putt - 35.6% Approach totals increase for those who T5 and win. OTT impact decreases for those who T5 and win.

Overall Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance 

***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold

Winners

OTT - 13.7%
APP - 49.1%
ATG  - 5.3%
Putt - 31.9%

Top Five Performers

OTT - 19.9%
APP - 38.8%
ATG  - 6.4%
Putt - 34.9%

Top 10 Performers

OTT - 20.5%
APP - 36.9%
ATG  - 7.0%
Putt - 35.6%

Top 20 Performers

OTT - 20.6%
APP - 36.3%
ATG  - 9.8%
Putt - 33.3%

Cut Makers 

OTT - 19.2%
APP - 39.5%
ATG  - 11.7%
Putt - 29.6%

Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners

This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:

Profiles That Most Closely Resemble Those Who Make The Cut

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Strokes Gained: TPC (10%)

Strokes Gained: Bent (10%)

Birdies + Disasters (10%)

Ball-Striking (10%) 

Aggression (10%) 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

First Look Into Outright Bets

We will see where numbers end up landing before finalizing the card, but here is where I currently stand with the likely names versus ones who may just miss:

Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - I only look at the top 60 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'

A lot of names here that possess a higher ceiling than the public may project.

Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form

Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories

Golfers to Land in the Top 40 of the Field for All Categories

Golfers to Land in the Top 30 of the Field for All Categories

Volatility doesn't even begin to describe this group, although I love the GPP upside.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss with anyone further on Twitter/X or Discord

Despite what my model may suggest or project, this is a relatively close section when diving into Sam Burns, Maverick McNealy, and Chris Gotterup.

The safety you get from Burns and McNealy makes them clear-cut cash-game plays with nice floors attached to their profile, but it comes down to popularity when deciding between this group.

I would rank the three as Burns, McNealy and a slight distance to Gotterup. However, let's see where ownership starts to take shape in the next handful of hours before solidifying a strong take with this group since I do have a bold take that the tournament co-favorite should actually be in the section below.

Favorite Play(s): Burns/McNealy are close

Guy I Am Not Playing: None

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

It might be the strangest model output you will ever see from me this week, given the volatility among these sections. Do we want to trust course history/long-term success, or recent surges from golfers playing at a higher level than some past stars?

Is Wyndham Clark back? Should Tony Finau be played because of the course history? Did Sungjae Im show enough with his iron onslaught last week to ignore the 14 straight weeks losing before that return?

Those are all decisions that only you can make for your lineups, but I do lean in the direction that Finau is a fade with his current game. I am not one who ever falls into popular trends when it comes to course history marks. I'd also give a similar answer that, while more fine overall, Clark's 100th-place grade for 'Birdies + Disaster' in my sheet is an actual cause for concern. The high-end marks will love his TPC stature, but I do worry that his overall popularity makes me more likely to move up into one of the $10,000 names rather than backing him at a hefty ownership.

I have always believed that any life from Sungjae is worth monitoring. I don't mind taking a few shots with him, and I also like the upside potential that Si Woo Kim brings, at a potentially reduced ownership stake. 

With all that being said, my favorite target on the board this week is Taylor Pendrith at $9,400. My model ranked Pendrith fifth for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, third when faced with Bentgrass greens, third for Birdies + Disasters, and inside the top 15 for Weighted Scoring and Overall Scoring at Easy Courses.

Favorite Play(s): Taylor Pendrith

Guy I Am Not Playing: Tony Finau

Guy(s) I Am Playing Who Have Dangerous Profiles: Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Luke Clanton is going to be your boom-or-bust target of the group. If you read these articles weekly, you will know he has been a fade for me every week since turning pro within my model. I realize the floor remains questionable, but the data has been a lot better than the results.

Courtesy of FantasyNational, here is how he has performed in the year 2025:

At a ball-striking course, I will take a chance on a true ball-striker, who has gained OTT in seven of nine starts this year and with his irons during the last six.

I came close to placing outright wagers on Kevin Yu, Michael Thorbjornsen and Kurt Kitayama (famous last words for me this season), but it was Jake Knapp that I ultimately landed on within that market.

Knapp graded fourth in my model for Weighted Scoring and an impressive second when faced with an 'Easy-Scoring' setup.

Favorite Plays: Kevin Yu, Michael Thorbjornsen, Jake Knapp, Kurt Kitayama

Guys I Am Not Playing: Max Homa

Guys I Am Playing That You Shouldn't: Luke Clanton

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will receive individual rankings for all players and be able to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Stats Only Rank

Fade Candidates

Favorite Plays: Rico Hoey, Doug Ghim, Sam Stevens, Matt McCarty, Andrew Putnam

Guys I Am Not Playing: Most of the names above - Someone like Cam Davis will get a boost because of his course history. I would much rather pivot to a name like Andrew Putnam

$6,000 Options to Consider

My best values early in the week:

Upside values:

My worst values:

Favorite Plays: Max McGreevy

Guys I Am Not Playing: Names above

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