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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 on 7/19/25. Alen's MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After last week's solid Nashville event, the UFC is headed to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, to send off one of the best, if not the best, fighters to never hold an undisputed title with a BMF title fight and a trilogy fight. Former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier is fighting for the last time in front of his home fans against former featherweight champion and current BMF title holder, Max Holloway. The event will mark the promotion's sixth visit to New Orleans and first since UFC Fight Night 68 in June 2015.
The co-main event is set to feature the return of a former middleweight title challenger, Paolo Costa, taking on Roman Kopylov. To open up the UFC 318 main card, we have an exciting lightweight fight between UFC veteran Michael Johnson and Daniel Zellhuber. Also on the main card, extremely durable Dan Ige is scheduled to take on former Bellator champion Patricio Freire, and a welterweight scrap between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 on 7/19/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin Poirier, $8.0K - vs. Max Holloway
Former interim lightweight champion Poirier is scheduled for his final fight against former featherweight champion and current BMF title holder Holloway in the main event of UFC 318 on Saturday. Poirier will look to finish his career with a BMF title around his waist, while Holloway looks to retain the BMF title and get closer to a lightweight title shot.
Shining bright throughout his fighting journey 💎
Here's all 15 finishes in @DustinPoirier's UFC career 🫡
[ #UFC318 | LIVE SAT 10pmET on @ESPNPlus PPV | 📺: https://t.co/fBvZcAxIyH ] pic.twitter.com/UQNph4Pgcn
— UFC (@ufc) July 18, 2025
After an incredible 14-year career in UFC, Poirier will hang up his gloves after his third bout with Holloway, where he will be hoping to make it 3-0 against Holloway. The first time they fought, Poirier defeated Holloway via first-round triangle armbar. The second time these two warriors fought was back in April 2019 at UFC 236, where Poirier defeated Holloway via unanimous decision to win an interim belt after an extremely close back-and-forth fight. Poirier has only fought the best of the best, but he has had a mixed record in the last few years, losing three of his last five fights since winning back-to-back bouts against former featherweight and former lightweight champion Conor McGregor. "The Diamond" was last seen in action back in June 2024, where he lost to then-champion Islam Makhachev via fifth-round D'arce choke.
Poirier was Holloway's first fight in the UFC, and now, Holloway will be Poirier's last fight. The last time these two fought, it was a back-and-forth fight where both fighters got hurt on multiple occasions. After the fight ended, both fighters got $50000 bonus for the Fight of the Night. Since his fight with Poirier, Holloway has fought 10 times, going 6-4. After losing to Alexander Volkanovski for the third time, Holloway won his next three fights. First, an epic buzzer-beating fight with Justin Gaethje, followed by masterful performances against both Chan Sung Jung and Arnold Allen. After going on a three-fight winning streak, Holloway again got his opportunity to fight for the featherweight title at UFC 308 against Ilia Topuria, but unfortunately for Holloway, he suffered a knockout loss in the third round, which was the first time Holloway got knocked out.
Poirier enters this fight with an MMA record of 30-9 with one NC and 22-8 with one NC in the UFC. He is averaging 5.30 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Poirier absorbs 4.33 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling has been solid, averaging 1.24 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same period. Poirier has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 64%.
Holloway enters this fight with an MMA record of 26-8 and 22-8 in the UFC. He averages 7.16 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Holloway absorbs 4.76 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 59%. In regards to his grappling, Holloway is averaging 0.25 takedowns every 15 minutes. Holloway has a takedown accuracy of 53% and he has a takedown defense of 83%.
I think Poirier is better all-around, but this fight is not going to the ground. There is no doubt in my mind that this fight will be taking place entirely on the feet. Both guys prefer a striking battle, but they have completely different styles. Poirier has reach and power on his side while Holloway has volume and activity. Both fighters seem to be in great shape, and it seems that they haven't missed a step. It's extremely difficult to pick a winner, but my prediction is that Poirier's power will be too much for Holloway. I don't think Poirier will be able to knock Holloway out, who is extremely tough, but I do think he might pull off a unanimous decision win.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Holland, $9.3K - vs. Daniel Rodriguez
On Saturday, Holland is set to face off against Rodriguez on the main card of UFC 318. Both Holland and Rodriguez have won back-to-back fights and are now searching for a three-fight win streak.
This will be FIREWORKS 💥@TrailBlaze2Top vs @DRODUFC
[ #UFC318 LIVE on ESPN+ PPV | SAT | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/NrYcd4Tyt9
— UFC (@ufc) July 17, 2025
It looks like Holland has found a weight class that suits him nicely. When he was fighting at middleweight, Holland fought 16 times, going 9-6 with one NC. His UFC record while fighting in the welterweight division is 6-3. Although not the best record, it seems now Holland is performing better when he's fighting in the welterweight division. Since moving down to welterweight, Holland has gone 2-0. First, he earned a Performance of the Night bonus back in March when he defeated Gunnar Nelson via unanimous decision, and then, at UFC 316, he submitted Vicente Luque via second-round anaconda choke, again earning a Performance of the Night bonus.
Just like Holland, Rodriguez got back on track by winning back-to-back fights. First, he barely defeated Alex Morono via split decision, but in his last fight, he finished UFC veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio via third-round TKO. Before his bout with Morono, Rodriguez was very close to being released from the UFC as he lost three in a row. In November 2022, at UFC Vegas 64, Rodriguez was submitted by Neil Magny, followed by his first-round TKO loss to Ian Machado Garry, followed by a unanimous decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum.
Holland enters this fight with an MMA record of 28-13 with one NC and 15-10 with one NC in the UFC. He averages 4.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Holland absorbs 3.11 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 50%. In regards to his wrestling, Holland is averaging 0.81 takedowns every 15 minutes. Holland has a takedown accuracy of 39% and a takedown of 55%.
Rodriguez enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-5 and 9-4 in the UFC. He averages 7.39 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Rodriguez absorbs 5.39 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. In regards to his wrestling, Rodriguez is averaging 0.55 takedowns every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 54%, and his takedown defense is 63%.
Rodriguez can make this a competitive fight, but he's just too limited, in my opinion. His jiu-jitsu and wrestling are not that good, he's older, and I think his only way of winning this fight is to knock Holland out. On the other hand, Holland is a very good striker with solid jiu-jitsu, and he also has reach and athleticism on his side. Holland looked reinvigorated in his last fight, and I think he just might submit Rodriguez. If he doesn't win by submission, my prediction is that Holland is going to win via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dan Ige, $8.6K - vs. Patricio Freire
Former Bellator champion Freire is scheduled to face off against always entertaining and durable Ige on the main card of UFC 318 on Saturday. Freire will look to bounce back and earn his first win in the UFC while Ige looks to win back-to-back fights.
No follow up needed 👊@DynamiteDan808 looks to bring all the action to the Octagon this Saturday!
[ #UFC318 | LIVE on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/VjsjEM6zvH
— UFC (@ufc) July 16, 2025
Freire recently signed with UFC, and he made his UFC debut in his last fight, but it went horribly. Former Bellator champion Freire made his UFC debut back in April at UFC 314 against former interim featherweight champion Yair Rodriguez, and he had a lackluster performance to say the least. He looked slow, old, and he landed only 17 significant strikes on 50 attempts, compared to Rodriguez, who landed 70. "Pitbull" hasn't looked good for quite some time, going 1-3 in his last four, and it's evident that he's much slower and out of his prime.
Ige joined the promotion back in 2017 after he submitted Luis Gomez via a third-round rear-naked choke on Dana White's Contender Series. Since then, he's gone 11-8 in the UFC. Ige has to be one of the most durable, if not the most durable, featherweights in the UFC. In his 11-year professional career, despite facing some of the division’s toughest fighters, no one has been able to finish him. After losing back-to-back fights to former title challenger Diego Lopes and Lerone Murphy, Ige has returned to the win column in his last bout by finishing Sean Woodson via third-round TKO.
Ige enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-9 and 11-8 in the UFC. He averages 3.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Ige absorbs 3.55 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56%. In regards to his grappling, Ige is averaging 0.94 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 25% and a takedown defense of 58%.
Freire enters this fight with an MMA record of 36-8 and 0-1 in the UFC. He averages 2.45 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. Freire absorbs 4.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. In regards to his grappling, Freire is averaging 0.69 takedowns every 15 minutes. Freire has a takedown accuracy of 20% and a takedown defense of 88%.
If this fight were made a few years ago, I would without a doubt give an edge to Freire. However, after seeing his last performance against Rodriguez, I don't think that he has what it takes to beat Ige. He's slowed down over the years, and his reaction time is not what it used to be. On the other hand, Ige is fast, explosive, and still in top shape. It could be said that Ige is in his prime, performance-wise, even though he's 33 years old. I don't think Ige will finish Freire, but I do see him winning via unanimous decision.
