RADIO
DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira on 6/28/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
With Islam Makhachev moving up to welterweight and vacating the lightweight belt, the lightweight throne is vacant at the moment. The card, which takes place on June 28 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, features two title fights at the top of the card. In what is arguably the biggest UFC bout of 2025, former featherweight champion and undefeated Ilia Topuria and former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira clash for the vacant lightweight title in the main event of UFC 317. The co-main event features a flyweight title fight and a rematch between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France.
To open up the main card, we have Payton Talbott facing off against Felipe Lima. The next bout is a lightweight fight between former title challenger Renato Moicano and Beneil Dariush, followed by a flyweight fight between former flyweight title challenger Brandon Royval and surging Joshua Van.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira on 6/28/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
Happy New Year! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ilia Topuria, $9.3K - vs. Charles Oliveira
Former featherweight champion and undefeated Topuria is scheduled to take on former lightweight champion Oliveira in the main event of UFC 317 on Saturday. This is a fight for a vacant lightweight title as Makhachev decided to move up a weight class.
Who will be the lightweight king? 👑@TopuriaIlia vs @CharlesDoBronxs
[ #UFC317 | JUN 28 | 📺: https://t.co/8SW18eOXpP ] pic.twitter.com/1dBlF542jS
— UFC (@ufc) June 26, 2025
Topuria moves up to the lightweight division for UFC 317 following a successful title defense against former featherweight champion and one of the greatest featherweights ever, Max Holloway. Since joining the promotion back in 2020, Topuria has been on a tear, knocking out six of his last eight opponents. Interestingly enough, Topuria had only one knockout finish before joining the UFC. Topuria became a champion with a second-round knockout of the greatest featherweight of all time, Alexander Volkanovski, and defended his title in his last bout by finishing Holloway in the third round of their October bout in Abu Dhabi.
Oliveira burst onto the UFC scene back in 2010, scoring a submission over Darren Elkins that marked him as one of the most exciting prospects in the sport since signing with the promotion. Since losing to Paul Felder back in 2017, Oliveira went on a tear, winning his next 11 fights. The time he lost again was against Makhachev when the two fought for a vacant title. On his road back to receiving a title shot, Oliveira has lost to Arman Tsarukyan and won against Dariush and, more recently, former title challenger Michael Chandler.
Topuria enters this fight with an MMA record of 16-0 and is 8-0 in the UFC. He averages 4.69 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 47%. Topuria absorbs 3.84 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 64%. In regards to his grappling, Topuria is averaging 2.02 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Topuria has a takedown accuracy of 61% and a takedown defense of 92%.
Oliveira enters this fight with an MMA record of 35-10 with one NC and 23-10 with one NC in the UFC. He averages 3.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. Oliveira absorbs 3.21 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 49%. He also has elite grappling ability, averaging 2.25 takedowns every 15 minutes and 2.7 submission attempts during the same period. His takedown accuracy is 40% and his takedown defense is 56%.
Topuria has incredible knockout power and is possibly the best boxer in the UFC. He's a black belt in jiu-jitsu and possesses solid wrestling skills. Oliveira also has knockout power and is one of the best, if not the best, jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC. That being said, Oliveira gets hit a lot and we have seen him getting dropped time and time again. I think Topuria's pressure and knockout power will be too much for Oliveira, and my prediction is that Topuria is going to knock Oliveira out within three rounds.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Royval, $8.2K - vs. Joshua Van
Former flyweight challenger Royval and surging prospect Van are scheduled for a three-round flyweight bout on the main card of UFC 317 on Saturday. Both Royval and Van will look to extend their win streaks and possibly earn a shot at a title.
These flyweights are gonna bring it 👏@BrandonRoyval vs @JoshuaVanBT
[ #UFC317 | JUN 28 | 📺: https://t.co/8SW18eOXpP ] pic.twitter.com/BM1jNGIUed
— UFC (@ufc) June 26, 2025
Royval has won five of his last six fights, including a decision win over a former two-time flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno. He made his UFC debut against Tim Elliott in May 2020 and won via second-round submission. He then won four of his next six fights to earn a shot in December 2023 against Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 296. After losing his title fight against Pantoja, he bounced back with consecutive wins over Moreno and, more recently, former Rizin champion Tatsuro Taira. He has not competed since October 2024 due to a concussion and prolonged symptoms encountered in early 2025.
Joshua Van has quickly become one of the most active fighters on the UFC roster. Royval and Mane Kape were originally scheduled to fight, but Kape was forced to pull out, and so Van stepped up on short notice to face Royval. In his last bout, Van closed out the preliminary card of UFC 316 with his fourth straight victory, finishing Bruno Silva via third-round TKO. He fought in March before that, at UFC 313, where he defeated Rei Tsuruya via unanimous decision. Since signing with the promotion, Van has gone 7-1, only losing to Charles Johnson back in July 2024 at UFC Denver via third-round knockout.
Royval enters this fight with an MMA record of 17-7 and 7-3 in the UFC. He averages 4.46 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. Royval absorbs 3.06 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 47%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.75 takedowns every 15 minutes. Royval has a takedown accuracy of 75% and a takedown defense of 45%.
Van enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-2 and 7-1 in the UFC. He averages 8.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. Van absorbs 5.26 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.96 takedowns every 15 minutes. Van has a takedown accuracy of 63% and a takedown defense of 81%.
It’s going to be an intriguing matchup between these two exciting flyweight contenders, but I predict that Royval will walk out victorious. Van has looked spectacular recently, but he's taken this fight on short notice against one of the best flyweights in the world, and I think Royval's experience is going to be too much for Van. I don't think Royval is going to finish Van, but I believe he will win via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Renato Moicano, $8.4K - vs. Beniel Dariush
Former lightweight title challenger Moicano is scheduled to face Dariush on the main card of UFC 317 on Saturday. Both fighters aim to get back in the win column, and this will probably be their last opportunity to get back in the title picture. Dariush and Moicano were originally set for UFC 311, but imploded at the final hour when Arman Tsarukyan injured himself on one day's notice, as UFC moved Moicano to the main event to take on Makhachev for the lightweight title.
We've been waiting for this one 😤@BeneilDariush vs @MoicanoUFC
[ #UFC317 | JUN 28 | 📺: https://t.co/8SW18eOXpP ] pic.twitter.com/JvcwS4XF3k
— UFC (@ufc) June 26, 2025
Back in March 2022, Moicano took a short-notice fight against former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos and was dominated over five rounds. However, since then, Moicano has been on a tear, going 4-1 with his only loss in that period being to then lightweight champion Makhachev. Out of those four wins, three ended in a finish, two via TKO and one via submission. He’s a high-level jiu-jitsu black belt, as well as an offensive and defensive wrestler. Striking defense is debatably the weakest part of his game.
Between November 2018 and October 2022, Dariush looked outstanding, winning eight fights in a row, and it looked like he should have been the next title challenger. During that stretch, he defeated the likes of Tony Ferguson and Mateusz Gamrot. But now, things haven't been looking all that great for Dariush, who was finished in his last two fights. First, he suffered a first-round TKO loss to former lightweight champion Oliveira, and more recently, he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Tsarukyan. One of the best sprawl-and-brawl fighters, Dariush is also known for his outstanding jiu-jitsu and decent striking.
Moicano enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-6-1 and 12-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Moicano is absorbing 3.55 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. In regards to his grappling, Moicano is averaging 1.82 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 44% and a takedown defense of 71%.
Dariush enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-6-1 and 16-6-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Dariush absorbs 2.65 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 57%. In regards to his grappling, Dariush is averaging 1.90 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 34% and a takedown defense of 80%.
This likely would have been a different fight if both men were in their prime. That being said, it appears Moicano is still improving, while Dariush has lost a step. Dariush has been knocked out badly in each of his last two fights and will be stepping into the cage for the first time in over a year. He looked slower in his fights against Oliveira and Tsarukyan, and I don't think we'll ever see Dariush dismantling most of the lightweight division like he did before he suffered a TKO loss to Oliveira. I'm not sure Moicano will be able to finish Dariush, but I'm confident that he will win. My prediction is that Moicano will get this done via unanimous decision.
