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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS Lineup Picks - UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 on 06/07/25. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
After arguably the worst fight card in UFC history, we are treated to a UFC 316 event that features two title fights, veterans returning, and newcomers making their UFC debut. The event will mark the promotion's 11th visit to Newark and first since UFC 302 in June 2024. The main event features a title fight and a rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley. The co-main event features a women's bantamweight title bout between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison.
We got a banger to open up the UFC 316 main card as Vicente Luque takes on Kevin Holland in a three-round welterweight bout. The most interesting non-title fight on the card came by happenstance. Mario Bautista was set to fight recent title challenger Marlon Vera. However, Vera withdrew for undisclosed reasons, spurring UFC to reach out to former Bellator bantamweight champion Patchy Mix. Also on the main card, we have Kelvin Gastelum facing off against Joe Pyfer.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 on 6/7/25. Give me a follow on X @sumpor5. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Merab Dvalishvili, $9.0K - vs. Sean O'Malley
This Saturday, the bantamweight title is on the line in the main event of UFC 316 as bantamweight champion Dvalishvili takes on former bantamweight champion O’Malley in a rematch. Dvalishvili and O'Malley previously met at UFC 306, where Dvalishvili defeated O’Malley by unanimous decision to claim the UFC bantamweight championship.
REMATCH FOR THE GOLD 🏆@MerabDvalishvil vs @SugaSeanMMA
[ #UFC316 | Saturday on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/AsA22Q19sf
— UFC (@ufc) June 5, 2025
In his last bout in January at UFC 311, Dvalishvili made his first title defense by defeating previously undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision. Dvalishvili didn't exactly have a good start to his UFC run, losing his first two fights, dropping a split decision to Frankie Saenz and the second to Ricky Simon, via submission. Since losing those two fights, Dvalishvili has been dominant during his current run, racking up 12 straight victories that include wins over former two-time featherweight champion Jose Aldo, former bantamweight champion Petr Yan, former flyweight and bantamweight champion Henry Cejudo, and previously undefeated Nurmagomedov.
O'Malley hasn't competed since losing the title to Dvalishvili. Following the loss, O'Malley underwent hip surgery and appears to be fully healthy. "Suga" has spent his 10-month hiatus addressing key weaknesses such as his takedown defense and cardio. Before his loss to Dvalishvili, O'Malley had been undefeated in seven previous fights. O'Malley is a dynamic striker known for his precision, capable of either easily outstriking opponents or finishing them outright, which is evidenced by his 12 knockouts, including the title-winning stoppage of Aljamain Sterling.
Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 19-4 and 12-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dvalishvili is absorbing 2.51 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is elite, averaging 5.89 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 35% and a takedown defense of 82%.
O’Malley enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-2 with one NC and 10-2 with one NC in the UFC. O’Malley is averaging 6.70 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 3.48 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is not nearly as strong, averaging 0.29 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 61%.
O'Malley is a far greater striker. He has a chance to knock Dvalishvili out early on because if he doesn't, he will get tired as he gets outwrestled. "Suga" spent 10 months on his wrestling, but I don't see his takedown defense being good enough to stop Dvalishvili's takedowns. Nurmagomedov is a much better wrestler than O'Malley, and he even got tossed around the cage by Dvalishvili. My prediction is that this fight will be more or less the same as their first fight, and that Dvalishvili will win via unanimous decision.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kayla Harrison, $9.7K - vs. Julianna Pena
The co-main event of UFC 316 features a title fight between women's bantamweight champion Pena and Harrison. Pena became the two-time champion in her last bout at UFC 307 by defeating former women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington, while Harrison earned her title shot in her last bout by beating Ketlen Vieira.
In her last bout, Pena won by a controversial split decision over Pennington last October that most observers scored for the challenger. Prior to her win over Pennington at UFC 307, Pena was dominated by Amanda Nunes in their rematch at UFC 277 back in July 2022 to drop the bantamweight belt, a year after Pena defeated Nunes with a second-round submission to win the bantamweight belt. This will be Pena's fourth straight title fight. Although Pena's strength is her grappling, this seems to be a terrible matchup for Pena, who has a 23% career takedown defense.
Harrison is 15-1 in PFL, with her only loss being to Larissa Pacheco, an opponent she twice defeated before their most recent meeting. She has been perfect since joining the UFC at 2-0, dominating Vieira and former champion Holly Holm en route to a title shot, showcasing the same suffocating top game that made her a two-division PFL champion. She's also won a gold medal twice at the Olympic Games in Judo, alongside winning two bronze medals and one gold at World Championships before joining PFL in 2018.
Pena enters this fight with an MMA record of 12-5 and 8-3 in the UFC. She averages 3.25 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Pena absorbs 2.53 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 50%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.81 takedowns every 15 minutes. Pena has a takedown accuracy of 56%, and her takedown defense is 23%.
Harrison enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 2-0 in the UFC. She averages 4.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. Harrison absorbs 1.19 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 64%. Her grappling has been elite, averaging 2.75 takedowns every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 30% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Although Pena is an underrated grappler, she is nowhere near the level of a grappler like Harrison. Pena has also been submitted by fighters not known as grapplers, like former featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie and current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko. She is adamant and durable, but that won't be enough to get the win over Harrison. I predict Harrison will get a top position and finish Pena in the first three rounds, either by TKO or by submission.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Vicente Luque, $7.4K - vs. Kevin Holland
Luque and Holland are scheduled to open the UFC 316 main card on Saturday. Both fighters got back in the win column in their last fight, and both are looking to win back-to-back fights.
After a more than year-long hiatus from competition ending in mid-2023, Luque has won two of three fights since his return. Luque recovered from his KO loss to Joaquin Buckley last year to defeat Themba Gorimbo in the first round via an anaconda choke, earning a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus for his efforts. But a loss to Buckley in March of last year was a bit worrying about Luque's ability to compete at a high level. Strangely enough, Luque is only 33 years old, despite competing in the UFC for a decade.
Holland will be back in action for his third fight of 2025. In January, Holland was submitted by former ONE champion Reinier de Ridder and then won a unanimous decision over Gunnar Nelson in March. The win marked a successful return to the welterweight division. Holland has been in and out of the top 15 rankings of his division, and has three losses in his last five bouts. The bout against Luque will be his 12th in three years. Holland boasts 13 TKO/KO wins and nine submissions and is known for his unique striking, long reach, and toughness.
Luque enters this fight with an MMA record of 23-10-1 and 16-6 in the UFC. He is averaging 5.05 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Luque absorbs 5.22 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 0.99 takedowns every 15 minutes. Luque has a takedown accuracy of 53% and a takedown defense of 62%.
Holland enters this fight with an MMA record of 27-13 with one NC and 14-10 with one NC in the UFC. He averages 4.19 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Holland absorbs 3.10 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 50%. In regards to his wrestling, Holland is averaging 0.77 takedowns every 15 minutes. Holland has a takedown accuracy of 37% and a takedown of 54%.
It's not easy to pick a winner of this fight. If this bout were made, let's say, three or four years ago, I would have easily picked Luque. But now, I'm not so sure. Luque has been in some wars, and his chin appears not what it used to be. On the other hand, Holland's lack of defensive awareness and inability to evolve raise a clear concern. That being said, I'm going for Luque. I think he's crafty enough to pull a win. My prediction is that Luque will beat Holland via unanimous decision.
