Overvalued Fantasy Football Rookies

Frank Ammirante's overvalued fantasy football rookies for 2025 redraft leagues. His fantasy football draft avoids and potential busts, including Travis Hunter and more.

The 2025 NFL Draft has come and gone, so it's time to look at fantasy football average draft position (ADP) to determine which rookies are overvalued for 2025 redraft leagues. While some rookies have favorable landing spots, this has caused their ADP to rise to the point where they're too expensive.

On this page, we'll dive into rookie ADP on Underdog as of May 11th, since this is the most active platform at this stage of the offseason. Using this data, we can project which players are overvalued for the 2025 NFL season.

Read on to find out why I view Travis Hunter, Omarion Hampton, RJ Harvey, Cam Skattebo, and Colston Loveland as overvalued fantasy football rookies this year.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) rankings
• Quarterback (QB) rankings
• Tight end (TE) rankings
• Defense (D/ST) rankings
• Kicker (K) rankings
• FLEX rankings
• Dynasty rankings

Travis Hunter - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Underdog ADP: 39.7 (WR23)

Hunter has a chance to be an elite wideout in this league. The Jaguars made the right move in trading up for this generational talent. Reports indicate that the Jags plan to use Hunter as a receiver more than at cornerback. These are all good signs for his fantasy value in the 2025 season.

But Hunter's current price of 39.7 (WR23) is too expensive for me. This is ahead of proven wideouts like DJ Moore, DeVonta Smith, and DK Metcalf. You can also get running backs such as James Cook or Joe Mixon at this cost. If you're looking at quarterback, the elite tier is still available at 39.7 ADP, including Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts.

There's a risk that Hunter will take time to get rolling at the professional level, especially with Brian Thomas Jr. as the established top target in this offense. We just saw the fantasy community jump the gun on Marvin Harrison Jr. -- who was also considered a generational prospect -- taking the former Buckeye as early as the end of the first round.

We can't underestimate the potential risk with these first-year players.

We also need to see exactly how the Jaguars want to use Hunter. I know they said he'll be primarily a wideout, but what does that look like? I love Hunter as a player, especially in this landing spot, where he'll be catching passes from Trevor Lawrence with Liam Coen calling plays. However, I just can't get there at this cost, which feels like a symptom of rookie fever.

Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Underdog ADP: 44.1 (RB15)

Hampton is a talented back who can be a bellcow. You have to love the first-round draft capital. This type of investment in running backs usually bodes well for immediate usage. But we can't assume that will be the case with the Chargers.

This is a team that just signed Najee Harris in free agency. While it was only a one-year deal worth up to $9.25 million, this is still a former first-rounder who has seen heavy usage throughout his career. Even though Harris hasn't looked great in the last few seasons, the Chargers have a terrific running scheme that just helped J.K. Dobbins average 4.6 yards per carry.

In other words, there's a reasonable chance that we could see an uptick in efficiency for Harris in this situation. That means he's not going to give way to an incoming rookie. In fact, there's a chance that the former Steeler is the lead back, at least for a chunk of the season.

This situation reminds me of the Lions back in 2023: after signing David Montgomery as a free agent, they used a first-round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs. Both running backs had fantasy value, with Montgomery outscoring Gibbs in fantasy points per game. You shouldn't rule out Harris this year, which makes Hampton's current 44.1 ADP at RB15 overvalued.

RJ Harvey - RB, Denver Broncos

Underdog ADP: 55.0 (RB17)

#Broncos HC Sean Payton on RJ Harvey in pass protection:

“We can create different protections to make sure that the matchup’s right. Because I know the question — ‘Is he a three-down back?’ Well, he’s gonna play on third down… There’s a lot we can do, relative, to really suit… pic.twitter.com/6VdRFIqZam

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 11, 2025

Harvey is the biggest riser in fantasy football following a terrific landing spot where he was hand-picked by Sean Payton to be the next featured back for the Broncos. I love the situation for Harvey, which features a wide-open depth chart that includes Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime.

But the helium has gotten completely out of hand at 55.0 (RB17) ADP. This is ahead of productive running backs like Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Walker III, and Alvin Kamara. I get it -- the Payton scheme is running-back friendly, consistently targeting their backs in the passing game. But this feels like overconfidence in Harvey's usage.

There's a risk that Payton keeps players like Estime and McLaughin involved. What if this remains a full-blown committee? We've seen Payton do this with talented backs in the past—just look at Pierre Thomas with the Saints. You're paying as if you know for sure that Harvey is going to see heavy usage in his rookie season.

It's simply too rich a cost for an unproven player.

As with Hunter and Hampton, this is not a knock on the prospect, but on the cost. I'd rather target players with productive seasons under their belt and go for a cheaper rookie later in the draft, such as Bhayshul Tuten with the Jaguars.

Cam Skattebo - RB, New York Giants

Underdog ADP: 97.0 (RB31)

Colston Loveland is a WR in a TE body. Mismatch nightmare with rare versatility.

Bears got it right. #DaBears #Bears pic.twitter.com/jqmZmjlCpI

— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) April 25, 2025

Skattebo is an intriguing talent who can break tackles and handle tough runs up the gut while making an impact in the passing game. But we need to remember that this is a rookie back with fifth-round draft capital. Using a top-100 pick on a player like this feels reckless, especially with Tyrone Tracy Jr. still in this backfield.

Tracy was impressive for the Giants last year, rushing for 839 yards while adding 284 yards through the air. It's likely that Skattebo can emerge as the thunder to Tracy's lightning in this backfield, but it's hard to see the rookie becoming the lead back in this offense.

I also haven't even mentioned Devin Singletary, who clearly has the trust of head coach Brian Daboll. Remember that Daboll coached Singletary back when he was with the Bills.

The worst-case scenario is that this is a three-back committee in a below-average offense. Even with Russell Wilson under center (and Jaxson Dart waiting in the wings), the Giants will likely still struggle to score points. This makes it a bit risky to pay such a premium for Skattebo.

At this cost, you're taking Skattebo ahead of players like Bo Nix, Travis Kelce, and Michael Pittman Jr. Skattebo is even going ahead of teammate Tracy, which feels over the top considering how well he played last year.

Colston Loveland - TE, Chicago Bears

Underdog ADP: 112.1 (TE9)

Loveland was surprisingly the top tight end off the board, landing in Chicago at 10th overall despite Tyler Warren being the consensus TE1 in this class. While I'm a big fan of Loveland as a player -- this is an elite receiving tight end who can win downfield-- it's tough to take him at TE9 in fantasy football drafts.

For one, it's a crowded offense with the Bears, featuring DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden III at wideout. If that's not enough, Cole Kmet is still there at tight end. By no means is Kmet an elite tight end, but he's competent enough to take away looks from Loveland.

Some of the tight ends who go later than Loveland include David Njoku and Jake Ferguson. These are two veterans who have productive seasons under their belts and less target competition.

Loveland can be a legit stud in this league -- perhaps becoming Ben Johnson's new Sam LaPorta -- but a breakout is already baked into the price, making this another overvalued rookie.

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