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Chase Meidroth's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet.
Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long been non-batted-outcomes per high walk-plus-hit-by-percentages and low strikeout percentages.
In this piece, we will walk through his plate profile history since college and examine his pro offensive running outcomes before turning attention to his potential future forecasts for dynasty and other fantasy baseball players.
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Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed, offensive running technique, and acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
Prospect Analysis: Chase Meidroth
Evolution of College Plate Profile
Beyond the two summer stints seen in the table below, Meidroth also played a partial summer in the wood bat West Coast League in the Pacific Northwest before his freshman academic year. By the start of his third and final NCAA D1 2022 season with the University of San Diego, Meidroth had unusually logged 312 summer plate appearances with wood but only 36 NCAA plate trips.
The relative breakout came in the large-sample summer 2021 Northwoods League time. That first of three straight 97 Overalls was carried by an almost plus (82) BB+HBP and nearly double plus (96) K Avoid. A few ticks above average (58) Batted Ball Profile was thicker on LD + IFFB Avoid but thinner on Pull GB Avoid + OFFB + Pull OFFB and thus produced more AVG (65) than ISO (33).
Favorably, the FaBIO line from the subsequent 2022 first full D1 season wound up very similar to the one from the prior summer, aside from more minor perturbations in Path to Batted Ball Profile elements. Meidroth had a pull bias towards the OFFB, and the change in bat properties likely allowed him to generate more ISO (71) compared to the summer.
Meidroth opted to begin the summer in the Cape Cod Baseball League to boost his standing for the July MLB Draft. Over 84 plate trips, he added much more loft (contrast GB Avoid and OFFB versus priors) to the batted ball profile but could not generate much (35) ISO. The aerial bias change also seemed to undermine the LD + IFFB Avoid Ratings, which tend to fuel AVG.
Red Sox saw enough in 2022 to select the sounder-fielding second baseman with potential bonus third base versatility in the fourth round of the draft, likely pegging Meidroth offensively as a some-hit with lighter-power plate pest.
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
After 10 tune-up PA with the rookie Florida Complex League squad, Meidroth was sent to the Low-A affiliate for 84 PA over which he produced an outstanding trio of 90-to-98 BB+HBP, K Avoid, and Batted Ball Profile Ratings. Still better, the (64) AVG and ISO (86) on Batted Balls Ratings were also very good for a smaller player.
Had the Red Sox landed a steal in the fourth round that July and unlocked something promising in the realm of batted balls?
Maybe not so much. The batted ball profile in early 2023 High-A play took a dramatic turn for a very low-launch one that was also shorter on LD and Pull GB Avoid around the retained IFFB Avoid. And that Path to Batted Ball Profile virtually stayed pat over 396 plate trips that followed in Double-A.
Over the whole 2023 campaign, Meidroth had remained a non-batted-ball plate pest but had lost key hit- and power-promoting cogs from the batted ball profile.
Twenty-one 2024 MiLB Spring Training game plate trips showed that his MiLB non-batted-ball outcomes were not yet big-league-ready. However, any concerns were gradually put to bed as a very full 558 PA season spent entirely in Triple-A would ultimately feature a BB+HBP and K Avoidance Rating of approximately double.
The Triple-A LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid hit trio graded out quite well, though Meidroth was only able to generate a 50 AVG on Batted Balls. Meanwhile, he could only produce a single-digit (8) ISO Rating due to a lack of OFFB and Pull OFFB beyond size and strength.
Three professional seasons had established that he was in good shape to battle MLB pitchers as a plate-pounding prospect, but questions remained about just how much he could hit and if that would be enough to offset what might at best be minus power.
His 2025 spring game action would be held in Arizona, following the offseason trade to the White Sox. The relatively strong area was above plus (89) BB+HBP. A just above average (57) K Avoid would have to be considered disappointing relative to the Triple-A mark.
The far greater disappointment was that fairly good hit fundamentals generated almost no (2) AVG. As in the 2024 MLB spring training in Florida, the right-handed batter somehow rated zero overall versus left-handed pitchers.
Enough was off about the 2025 MLB Spring Training plate outcomes that the White Sox opted not to add Meidroth to the MLB 40-man and Opening Day roster. So, he returned to Triple-A, but this time with the affiliate of his new organization.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
The now 5-foot-10, 190-pound Meidroth has rated around average at Offensive Running Rating in each of his three pro seasons. Most recently, he finished on the low side of average over 570 play events assessed in 2024 Triple-A play. Such results seem to align with early 2025 MLB top sprint speeds of Meidroth, which rate in the 37th percentile of 2025 MLB players.
Meidroth is not the kind of undersized player who can convert relatively more of a larger volume of infield groundballs into singles via speed or swinger-to-runner quickness avenues. Nor can he stretch a larger percentage of a very high volume of walks into virtual two-base events via steals or other aggressive advance attempts.
Fantasy Focus
The relative surprise of the pro career has likely instead come on the defensive side of the ledger. Not only has he proven to be an exceptionally reliable second baseman, but he has also played solid to better defense at both third base and shortstop. He has pulled off the latter two accomplishments without anything close to the plus arm strength that MLB clubs would generally prefer their left side of the infield players to possess. More infield defense versatility than formerly imagined during his amateur career has materialized as a future plus trait.
Meidroth did not post a bigger strikeout avoidance mark during the 2025 MLB Spring Training game action. Yet, such would be expected to come as he gradually cuts his MLB regular season teeth.
The larger challenge would be keeping BB+HBP plus or better while facing clubs and pitchers who do not fear his bat enough to be cautious around his strike zone. HBP has become a relatively large part of his on-base game as a pro, and he likely continues not to yield an inch. Otherwise, he probably must foul-spoil many strikes at the edges of the zone to keep his walk frequencies higher.
Sub-average offensive running limits what Meidroth can do in the wake of however many BB+HBP he tallies and also imposes a second cap on his ability to hit for average beyond the relative lack of physical strength that stems in part from his smaller stature.
Higher-caliber, versatile infield defense and offensive plate-pounding qualities should earn Meidroth a major league roster spot. The chief question in both real-world and fantasy evaluations is whether he can hit enough to offset what projects to be maybe minus MLB power and justify a full-time lineup spot over many seasons. If walks plus hit by pitches end up less frequent in the majors than before in the minors, pressure increasingly shifts to comfortably beat league means at converting batted balls into hits.
Are we looking at an everyday player here? Or instead a utility infielder who would log a relatively high volume of playing time owed to the plug-and-play nature of his defense around the three infield positions and trademark plate pest qualities that project to stymie strikeout specialists?
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