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Craig Rondinone's quarterback draft avoids and busts for 2025 fantasy football leagues. He analyzes why these QBs could be fantasy busts this season.
It is never too early to prepare for the upcoming fantasy football season.
Fantasy football revolves around running backs and receivers, especially in leagues where each team only starts one signal-caller and not two. You still need a decent quarterback to challenge for a league championship, though. And thanks to injuries and the lack of quality quarterbacks in the NFL, your chances of winning increase exponentially if you can have a couple of talented throwers on your fantasy roster.
Some signal-callers are lining up to have down years, though. Which quarterbacks should fantasy football general managers avoid heading into the 2025 campaign? Here is my hot take.
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Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
It sounds like San Francisco is going to back up the Brinks truck for Purdy and pay him like a franchise quarterback at some point. The problem is that fantasy footballers in dynasty leagues should not follow suit and hitch their wagons to him for several seasons, nor should they be drafting him in the higher rounds in standard leagues come August.
Let’s look at Purdy’s supporting cast for starters. The 49ers have had the most injury-prone set of skill-position players in the NFL the past couple of years. They go through four to five running backs per season, beginning with top tailback Christian McCaffrey. Top tight end George Kittle is perennially listed as questionable and misses a handful of contests every year, and top wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a season-ending torn ACL.
The Niners traded seldom-happy Deebo Samuel Sr. in the offseason, so unless Aiyuk rounds into Pro Bowl form sooner than expected, it looks like breakout star Jauan Jennings and youngster Ricky Pearsall will be leading the receiving corps. The uncertainty every week with the 49ers backs and pass-catchers has to be disconcerting if you are thinking of rostering Purdy.
Something else to worry about is how Purdy’s stats suffered in 2024 compared to his magical 2023 season. Purdy had 11 fewer touchdown tosses (but one more interception) despite throwing 11 more passes in 2024. His numbers across the board were worse, except that he ran for a career-high five touchdowns.
.@CutOnDime25 explains why Brock Purdy is not a Top 10 NFL QB:
“He hasn’t won a Super Bowl nor is an elite QB.” pic.twitter.com/2nEPFFvlT2
— The Facility (@TheFacilityFS1) April 2, 2025
Purdy is not a QB1 in fantasy football. He does not have above-average physical skills like a powerful arm or superior scrambling ability. He is a QB2 whose supporting cast is injury-prone and probably not as good as its been in recent years. There are better avenues to travel down if you are drafting a fantasy QB come August.
Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders
Smith is one of fantasy football’s reclamation project success stories. He seemed like he was going to be another New York Jets quarterback failure after his 28-to-36 touchdown-to-interception ratio got him bounced out of the Big Apple after four seasons. Backup stints with the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Chargers did not inspire confidence in his fantasy future, either.
Yet, Smith persevered and turned his career around with the Seattle Seahawks. He averaged around 4,000 passing yards and 24 touchdown passes per year over the past three years helming Seattle’s offense. Smith went from being a waiver wire laughingstock in fantasy leagues to a solid QB2 who managers could spot start against poor defenses and get great production. Maybe Seattle’s seafood and coffee cannot be underestimated!
Smith and the Seahawks could not agree to a contract extension, however, so he was dealt to Las Vegas for a third-round draft pick. This reunites him with former head coach Pete Carroll, who is a huge Smith fan. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that Smith’s cast of characters has gotten less talented, especially at wide receiver. Sure, tight end Brock Bowers is a superstar who might end up being a Hall of Famer, so he will be there to boost Smith’s stats. And yes, rookie running back Ashton Jeanty could be the franchise back the Raiders have not had since Josh Jacobs took his talents to Green Bay.
But that will be countered by the fact that there is no DK Metcalf or Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the roster or field for Smith. Both had 1,000-yard years while Smith was helming Seattle’s passing attack. Currently, the Raiders have solid veteran Jakobi Meyers -- and not much else at receiver for Smith to throw to, unless TCU product Jack Bech becomes a starter after being drafted in the second round this year.
Smith also used to be able to rely on tailback twosome Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet to keep defenses honest with their running and their ability to catch passes out of the backfield. If Jeanty becomes a Blair Thomas-like bust, Smith's running back rotation will be headed by Raheem Mostert, who is on the wrong side of 30 (especially for an RB), and unproven Sincere McCormick.
The downgrade in most of the skill positions is a grave concern for Smith’s fantasy value. Bowers can only help him so much, especially if he is double- and triple-teamed all the time. Jeanty needs to keep defenses honest, or I think Smith will be hard-pressed to throw 25 touchdown passes this season. I would stay away from him unless you are thinking of him as your QB3.
Justin Fields, New York Jets
This pains me since I am a devoted Jets fan. I have suffered through the Mark Sanchez years, the Sam Darnold years, the Zach Wilson years, and, of course, the Aaron Rodgers years.
Fields is already on his third NFL team despite only being in the league for four years. Even though he is extremely talented and a scintillating scrambler, Fields could lead another era myself, Jets fans, and fantasy managers might want to forget.
Let’s start with the positives. Fields is a world-class runner. Greyhound-like speed, uncanny awareness in the open field. Fields has rushed for 2,509 yards and 19 touchdowns over his first four NFL seasons. That means he has averaged 50 rushing yards per game, which many running backs do not do these days.
Justin Fields got so much talent. pic.twitter.com/h71zdHBJLY
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) April 9, 2025
This is all well and good, but Fields is not going to win any passing accuracy contests. Nor has he ever made a receiver on his team better and increased the pass-catcher’s fantasy value. While his lifetime 45-to-31 TD-to-INT ratio is not the worst and has gotten better in recent years, Fields has only averaged 155 passing yards per game during his career. 155 passing yards per game is not going to cut it from your fantasy quarterback unless he runs for 100 yards and two TDs per game, too.
After signing a two-year, $40 million deal with the Jets, Fields is the starting signal-caller on a revamped team with a new head coach and general manager that no longer has Davante Adams on the roster. It is top target Garrett Wilson and a bunch of no-names and has-beens among the receiving corps and tight-end troupe.
If Wilson is triple-teamed every week, I am not sure which player currently on the roster could help Fields be a 200-yards-per-game passer. It could very well fall on the broad shoulders of newly drafted Mason Taylor, son of Miami Dolphins great Jason Taylor. Taylor was the best tight end in the history of LSU and could be the Jets tight end for the next decade, but I am not sure he is the game-breaker Fields needs, especially since he is only a rookie.
Fields is not a volume passer, either. He is not better when asked to throw 30-40 times. That’s what opposing defenses want. His right arm is his third-best body part behind his two legs.
Fields can helm a run-first offense that revolves around dynamic tailback Breece Hall, orchestrated runs and wild scrambles by Fields, and just enough passes to Wilson and others to keep defenses from crowding the box.
But to think Fields could put up Lamar Jackson-like numbers if everything falls into place around him is nonsensical. Jackson has improved by leaps and bounds as a passer and is the best quarterback runner in NFL history. Fields might be able to run close to a Jackson level, but he has never shown he is anything more than an average passer.
Quarterbacks never go to the Jets and become better. They normally improve after they leave the team. Look no further than the aforementioned Geno Smith. Or their best years were before they joined the organization. Look no further than Brett Favre and Rodgers.
If you want to take a flyer on Fields becoming a decent passer and turning in a season where he posts 2,800 passing yards, 800 rushing yards, and scores 20-25 touchdowns, be my guest. I will not be joining you on the bandwagon. Only the 2022 Fields had numbers similar to that, and arguably better, since he galloped for 1,143 yards that year. But to me, the equation of Fields + the Jets = a fantasy fiasco.
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