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Tonight's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Texans vs. Chiefs Showdown slate for the Divisional Round (Jan. 18, 2024). John's NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We made it to the Divisional Round, and we have an interesting matchup. C.J. Stroud and the AFC South Champion Houston Texans (10-7) will take on Patrick Mahomes and the AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs (15-2). This is a showdown between two really good quarterbacks, but I'm more focused on the defenses here, as we have the 12th-ranked Kansas City defense taking on the 3rd-ranked Houston defense. I expect this one to be physical, let's see how it plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Texans vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on January 18. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $15,000 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 3,928 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 58 rushing attempts, 307 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 4.52%
I'll start the slate off with Patrick Mahomes. As I mentioned in the open, my general opinion is that this game is going to be a brutish, physical matchup between two strong defenses. However, big players make big plays and that's exactly what I'm expecting out of Mahomes in this one. It'll be an uphill battle against this 3rd ranked Houston passing defense, but they leak in two key spots: passing touchdowns and quarterback rushing yards, ranking 30th and 22nd across the league in those categories, respectively.
My model projects Mahomes to throw for 250.15 yards and 1.96 touchdowns while adding 20.27 yards and 0.14 touchdowns on the ground.
Nico Collins - WR, $15,900 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 107 targets, 75 receptions, 1,128 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: 11.6%
I'll flip the field and take a look at Nico Collins next. Collins was once again at his best on Wild Card Weekend against the Chargers, catching seven of eight targets for 122 yards and touchdown. He'll take on the Kansas City defense that ranks 17th against top receivers, allowing 7.4 targets and 60.5 receiving yards per game. Considering that and just the pure dominance of the Stroud and Collins combination when they're both firing, Collins is a necessary target for me in this showdown (no pun intended).
My model projects Collins to catch 7.51 of 10.04 targets for 91.66 yards and 0.47 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Xavier Worthy, Isiah Pacheco
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Travis Kelce - TE, $8,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 133 targets, 97 receptions, 823 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. TE: -17.4%
We'll take a look at a pair of Chiefs pass catchers in our flex spots. If you're going to run Patrick Mahomes in the 1.5x spot, you're going to want at least one of these guys. We'll start with Travis Kelce, who finished his season catching eight of 11 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown back in Week 17 against the Steelers. While Houston's defense ranks 5th in DVOA against tight ends, they have struggled of late. In the last four weeks of the regular season, Houston ranked 20th in targets, 25th in receiving yards, and 28th in touchdowns allowed against the position.
My model projects Kelce to catch 5.79 of 8.13 targets for 66.73 yards and 0.57 touchdowns in this one.
Xavier Worthy - WR, $8,200 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 98 targets, 59 receptions, 638 receiving yards, nine touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. WR1: -10%
If you're not rostering Kelce, my personal pivot would be Xavier Worthy. Worthy finished his regular season off on a heater, catching 21 of 29 targets for 190 yards and two touchdowns across the last three games he played in. The rookie seems to have earned the trust of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes throughout the course of the season, and is by far the most explosive weapon that the Chiefs have at their disposal.
My model projects Worthy to catch 4.91 of 7.18 targets for 60.02 yards and 0.39 touchdowns. While the model isn't projecting him to do anything on the ground, Andy Reid was given an extra week to prepare for this game, so I know he'll have something cooked up.
XAVIER WORTHY, WELCOME TO THE NFL 🤯
1ST-CAREER TD.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/AnHYFVR2OB
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 6, 2024
Other Flex Options: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, DeAndre Hopkins, Kareem Hunt
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Dalton Schultz - TE, $4,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 89 targets, 55 receptions, 555 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. TE: -1.8%
I'll look at a cheap pass catcher on each team for our value slots, starting with Dalton Schultz. Schultz caught two of four targets for 23 yards in the Texans' Wild Card Showdown against the Chargers. He'll now takes on a defense that despite ranking 11th in DVOA against tight ends, ranked 26th in targets allowed, 29th in receptions allowed, and 32nd in yards allowed to tight ends in 2024.
My model projects Schultz to catch 3.7 of 5.94 targets for 42.9 yards and 0.27 touchdowns. It isn't much in terms of projection, and it's worth noting that Schultz had been limited in practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but I think we're getting a steal in terms of value here.
Justin Watson - WR, $1,200 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 32 targets, 22 receptions, 289 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opposing DVOA vs. Other WR: -10.3%
I'll wrap things up with Justin Watson. This is strictly a boom-or-bust play. However, I just mentioned that Andy Reid got his extra week to prepare for this game, and that often spells crazy things when it comes to the Chiefs' offense, particularly in the red zone. Watson could only get one target in this game, but it feels like it's going to either be in the end zone, or a deep shot where the Texans defense loses track of him. Frankly, I think it's worth betting on him to find the end zone in this one.
My model projects Watson to catch 1.11 of 1.81 targets for just 18.95 yards and 0.09 touchdowns on Saturday.
Other Value Options: Robert Woods, Chiefs D/ST, Harrison Butker, John Metchie III, Noah Gray
Enjoy your weekend, everyone!
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