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Thunder Dan Palyo's Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS stacks for FanDuel, DraftKings GPPs, and the 2024 NFL season. Target these GPP stacks as daily fantasy football lineup picks and sleepers.
Wild Card Weekend is one of the most exciting weekends in professional sports with six games staggered between Saturday afternoon and Monday night.
At RotoBaller we have you covered with analysis for every type of DFS contest or slate you might be thinking about entering this weekend! I usually don't write this piece, but I am pinch-hitting from the incomparable Dawn Tepper and I'll do my best to fill her shoes with my thoughts on how to build some GPP-winning stacks this weekend!
These are my favorite game stacks for the full weekend of Wild Card games (Saturday through Monday night). This weekend's NFL DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel kicks off at 4:30 p.m. EST on Saturday, January 11.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
Vegas: Bucs -3, 50.5 Total
Top Stack Options
- QB Baker Mayfield ($6,800 DK, $7,900 FD)
- QB Jayden Daniels ($7,500 DK, $8,400 FD)
- RB Bucky Irving ($7,000 DK, $7,600 FD)
- WR Mike Evans ($7,900 DK, $8,400 FD)
- WR Jalen McMillan ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD)
- WR Terry McLaurin ($6,500 DK, $7,700 FD)
- TE Zach Ertz ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD)
This game has the highest total on the board and a tight spread with the Bucs installed as field goal favorites. We all know that home-field advantage is usually worth around three points on the betting line, so bettors are viewing these teams as pretty equal.
It's a recipe for stacking goodness as both teams have talented young passers and multiple pass-catchers to pair them with in our stacks. The Commanders finished 20th against the pass in DVOA defense rankings while the Bucs were 23rd, so needless to say we are mainly focusing on both of the passing games here.
Before we get to the receivers, I should note that the Commanders were also 26th against the run and Bucky Irving has been rolling. He's a core play for me in cash games this week, so I will likely be lighter on him in tournaments, though he makes for a solid bring-back option on the Tampa side if we want to roll with the Commanders' passing attack.
Jayden Daniels brings a slightly higher ceiling than Baker Mayfield with his elite rushing ability. But Baker can scramble a bit, too, and is only a few weeks removed from a 5-TD performance against the Panthers. I want exposure to both quarterbacks on this slate.
Daniels' top options this season were McLaurin (22.6% TGT%) and tight end Zach Ertz (17.2% TGT%). Ertz is not only cheaper but has a better red zone target share, too, at 28% compared to McLaurin's 20%. Both players have solid matchups but Tampa finished 27th against the TE position and Ertz has had the hot hand as he caught a TD in five of his final seven games this season.
If we roll with the Tampa side, I'm inclined to double-stack Baker with both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. That strategy paid off in two of Tampa's final four games this year as Baker tossed two touchdowns to Evans against the Panthers and Chargers while finding McMillan for one in each of those contests.
Jalen McMillan went OFF at the end of the season 📈
Weeks 1-13:
🏴☠️ Fantasy WR112
🏴☠️ 1 receiving TD
🏴☠️ 3.7 fantasy PPGWeeks 14-17:
🏴☠️ Fantasy WR10
🏴☠️ 6 receiving TDs (1st among WR)
🏴☠️ 17.7 fantasy PPG pic.twitter.com/dYWcHklEr1— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) January 10, 2025
McMillan has a five-game touchdown streak going with seven of his eight touchdowns on the season coming in the final five games of the season.
Secondary Stack Options
- RB Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD)
- WR Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,400 DK, $5,600 FD)
- TE Cade Otton ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD)
Favorite Stacks Based On Predicted Game Script
Tampa: Mayfield-Evans-McMillan-Ertz
Washington: Daniels-McLaurin-Ertz-Irving
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Vegas: Bills -8.5, 47.5 Total
- QB Josh Allen ($8,200 DK, $8,900 FD)
- QB Bo Nix ($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD)
- WR Khalil Shakir ($5,300 DK, $6,200 FD)
- WR Courtland Sutton ($6,600 DK, $7,100 FD)
- WR Marvin Mims Jr. ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD)
- TE Dalton Kincaid ($4,000 DK, $5,700 FD)
We have two stout run defenses and two gun-slinging, mobile quarterbacks in this game, which has the second-highest total on the board. It feels like another game to feature the QBs and their pass-catchers, though the Bills have been susceptible to pass-catching backs this season. Unfortunately, the Broncos have used a running back-by-committee approach this season making Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estime all very hard to deploy in DFS with any kind of certainty.
While Josh Allen is the superior athlete and MVP candidate, he's also a tough guy to find stacking mates for DFS because he spreads the ball around so much and also loves to run the football in for touchdowns himself as he had 12 rushing scores this season.
If I had to choose it would be Khalil Shakir. While Shakir has only four touchdowns on the season and a 14% red zone target share, he's still Allen's top target in this offense and he has an elite matchup in the slot against a Denver defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing slot receivers. Denver has an elite shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain II on the outside who will likely lock up with Amari Cooper which is just another reason to think that Shakir sees more targets come his way.
Dalton Kincaid is a better red zone threat, but he has been very inconsistent this season despite garnering over six targets per game.
My favorite angle here is actually to stack the Denver side and hope that the Broncos can pull off the upset or at least get into a shootout with a Bills team that allowed 44 and 42 points in back-to-back weeks against the Rams and Lions.
Nix is just a rookie but has to be playing with the most confidence that he has all season after tossing four touchdowns last week against the Chiefs' backups. He threw three against Cincinnati the week before, too, as the Broncos came up just short against the Bengals in overtime. Nix doesn't have Allen's rushing ability but has scrambled for 430 yards and four rushing touchdowns this season.
Marvin Mims
Sean Payton figured out how to utilize his skill set.
2025 he will be on of must draft late round players!
Past 8 weeks:
- led the NFL in YPRR (Yards Per Route Run) 4.3
- 6 Touchdowns
- 90% Catch Rate (1st)The KEY was where he lined up
- Slot 5.37 YPRR
-… pic.twitter.com/Yxn9lUfsJm— My Mind Is A Weapon FF (@SleezBallFF) January 10, 2025
His top target is Courtland Sutton who finished with over 1,000 yards receiving and eight touchdowns this year. At six-foot-four, Sutton is a matchup problem for the Bills with his size and he's shown the ability to get open against some good competition this year.
Marvin Mims Jr. is the x-factor for me here that could put this stack over the top. He exploded for an 8-103-2 line against the Bengals in Week 17 and then went 5-51-2 last week against Kansas City. He had just a 9% TGT% on the season for Denver, but he's seen his snap share rise to 47% in Weeks 16 and 17 and his TGT% to 26% and 17% in Weeks 17 and 18. He's a downfield threat who can take the top off the Buffalo defense and potentially take your lineup toward the top of the standings in the process.
Secondary Stack Options
- RB James Cook ($6,700 DK, $8,000 FD)
- RB Javonte Williams ($5,100 DK, $5,300 FD)
- WR Devaughn Vele ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD)
- WR Amari Cooper ($4,900 DK, $5,500 FD)
- WR Devaughn Vele ($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD)
Favorite Stacks Based On Predicted Game Script
Buffalo: Allen-Shakir-Sutton
Denver: Nix-Sutton-Mims-Shakir
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Minnesota Vikings at L.A. Rams
Vegas: Vikings -2.5, 47.5 Total
- QB Sam Darnold ($6,500 DK, $7,800 FD)
- QB Matthew Stafford ($5,700 DK, $7,100 FD)
- RB Kyren Williams ($7,400 DK, $8,600 FD)
- WR Justin Jefferson ($8,100 DK, $9,200 FD)
- WR Puka Nacua ($7,600 DK, $8,700 FD)
- TE T.J. Hockenson ($4,200 DK, $5,900 FD)
If you are willing to wait for the final game of the weekend, this one might be worth it as we have two pretty darn good offenses squaring off in Arizona (the game moved from L.A. because of the ongoing fires).
By now we are quite familiar with the rebirth of Sam Darnold this year and the season that he put together in Minnesota. Despite a poor showing last week against Detroit, I like him to bounce back this week with a much better outing against the Rams.
The Rams' pass defense finished with a DVOA rank of 25th to finish the season, while their rush defense improved throughout the year and moved up to 21st. The Vikings will surely try to establish Aaron Jones on the ground, but mainly to set up their play-action passing game as their best weapons are in the passing game (Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson).
Meanwhile, the Rams will also attempt to establish Kyren Williams and their own run game. In the first meeting - in which the Rams upset the Vikings on a Thursday night - Williams ran for 97 yards and caught a touchdown pass which was one of four that Stafford threw in the win.
So while both backs are viable, I prefer Williams a bit more due to his stranglehold on the touches and his younger, fresher legs. We could pair either back with their QB as they both catch passes, but I'm not sure I will go that route.
One of the most popular plays on this slate is going to be Puka Nacua, but to get leverage on the field we can pair him with a lightly-rostered Matthew Stafford who had his best game of the season against the Vikes earlier this year. The double stack with Kupp gets a bit expensive, but Tyler Higbee offers some salary relief and he finally looked like his old self in Week 18, playing 41% of the snaps and catching five of seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown.
Justin Jefferson this season:
- 103 Receptions (6th)
- 1553 Yards (2nd)
- 10 Touchdowns (6th)
- 97 Yard TD (2nd longest all season)
- Most Receiving Yards at 25 in NFL HistoryThe Best Receiver in the NFL pic.twitter.com/IdNnV6yMAg
— MNMuse (@statmusewolves) January 8, 2025
I also want some exposure to Sam Darnold with two of his pass catchers. It's pretty easy to narrow it down to Darnold + Jefferson and either Addison or Hockenson as the third option. The Rams have been stingy against slot receivers, funneling 69% of the opponents' receiving yards to outside receivers. That's where we see Jefferson line up the most. And Hockenson looks a bit better than Addison as the Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Secondary Stack Options
- RB Aaron Jones ($6,000 DK, $7,400 FD)
- WR Cooper Kupp ($6,400 DK, $7,000 FD)
- TE Tyler Higbee ($3,300 DK, $5,100 FD)
- WR Jordan Addison ($6,100 DK, $6,800 FD)
Favorite Stacks Based On Predicted Game Script
Minnesota: Darnold-Jefferson-Hockenson-Williams
L.A. Rams: Stafford-Nacua-Higbee-Jefferson
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