High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 17 Lineups Including Jalen McMillan, Khalil Shakir, Rachaad White, Dalton Kincaid, More

December 26, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 17 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Jalen McMillan, Khalil Shakir, Rachaad White, Dalton Kincaid, and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 17 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 17.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's championship week for the fantasy playoffs with no byes once again.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, Pro Football Focus, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 16 started with an unexpected shootout between the Broncos and Chargers, who combined for 61 points. Saturday's action featured more defense, but both contests were entertaining with the favored team winning.

Plenty of exciting football on Sunday was highlighted by the Eagles versus Commanders showdown. Not only did they combine for 69 points, but it came down to the wire. Jayden Daniels was extremely impressive. There were some surprising shootouts, too, including the Colts and Titans, who put 68 points on the board. The Panthers also bounced back with 36 points in an overtime victory.

Five signal-callers threw for 300 yards, and six tossed at least three touchdowns. As for rushing, nine tailbacks ran for 100 yards, and six rushed for multiple scores. This week, it was Jonathan Taylor's world with 218 yards and three scores. Furthermore, 11 teams scored 30 points, but none went over 40, and only eight were under 20. Aside from the Browns, Giants, Saints, and Jets, there was more consistency across the league. It was a fantastic week for offenses.

• Detroit Lions - 34 points scored (tied for 4th)
• Green Bay Packers - 34 points scored (tied for 4th)
• Arizona Cardinals - 30 points scored  (tied for 10th)
• Minnesota Vikings - 27 points scored (tied for 13th)
• Cincinnati Bengals - 24 points scored (tied for 17th)

It was a much better week for selections. We nailed two top-5 offenses, with three in the top 10. Plus, the Vikings and Bengals were decent picks, scoring 27 and 24 points, respectively. It's even more impressive when you consider unexpected squads like the Panthers, Colts, and Falcons made the top 10.

The Ravens, Falcons (twice), and Bills scored a special teams or defensive touchdown. None of those bolstered our picks, making them even more solid. We'll look to produce another stellar week.

Week 17 Offenses to Target

• • Buffalo Bills
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Washington Commanders
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Dallas Cowboys

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

The home squads kept cooking in Week 16. The Packers, Colts, Commanders, Panthers, Ravens, Falcons, and Chargers scored 30 in their stadium, while only the Cardinals, Lions, and Titans achieved that on the road. It's closer this week, but plenty of high-scoring offenses are hosting their opponents to maintain or extend the gap, which is 1.38 points.

Of the other nine categories, six saw an increase this week, and five were in the "average" or "above average" categories. The difference between the "above average" and the "below average" categories narrowed in all three metrics, but minimally.

The "above average" category in the offensive touchdowns metric remains the highest at 27.45. That would rank ninth among NFL teams. Similarly, it's 27.26 in the "above average" category for the offensive yards metric, which would also rank ninth. That means those are reliable indicators for a top-10 offense.

Lastly, the points scored increased in the "above average" and "below average" categories in the plays per game metric. The difference is 1.12 points, which is indicative of a small advantage.

Week 17 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Buffalo Bills

The Bills were coming off a murderer's row of matchups with the Chiefs, Rams, and Lions, so it was easy to foresee a letdown performance. That's exactly how the first half played out. However, Buffalo rallied in the third quarter before a huge defensive touchdown turned the tide in the fourth quarter. The Patriots hung in there until the end, but couldn't complete the upset.

The Bills rank second in points per game with 31.27, second in offensive touchdowns with 3.67, and seventh in offensive yards with 366.53.

Next up is their second of three divisional matchups. They'll host the Jets, whose defense has caused problems in the past. It could be another ugly win, but it shapes up as a potential bounce-back spot for the offense.

The obvious: Josh Allen and James Cook carried the offense. Cook had a massive day with 126 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Allen took a long time to find his stride and hurt his elbow but did enough to win. Beyond these two, it was a poor outing for everyone else.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Dalton Kincaid matched Dawson Knox with two receptions for 22 yards. He's still the starter, but splitting 16 completions and 154 receiving yards between eight players isn't ideal for fantasy. He's a risky streamer this week.

Player No. 2 - Khalil Shakir was very disappointing because he's the wideout you can rely on. Unfortunately, he suffered from the low volume, too. He's a flex option that should see more targets against New York.

Offense No. 2 - Los Angeles Rams

The Rams fought through cooler conditions on the road against the Jets to come away winners. It was far from perfect, but they took care of business. They're riding a four-game winning streak with the NFC West division in their sights. A loss from Seattle paved the way for them to take full control.

It hasn't been fireworks for their offense, but they're averaging 21.93 points per game (17th), 2.27 offensive touchdowns (10th), 331.53 offensive yards (15th), and 61.4 plays per week (20th). The stats aren't elite but they include multiple weeks without their superstar wideouts.

What makes them so intriguing this week is they return to the comforts of home at SoFi Stadium to host the reeling Cardinals. Arizona just got torched by Carolina for 36 points. Its defense, which looked stout before its bye week, has allowed 27.7 points in its last three outings. It's the ninth worst during that span.

The obvious: Kyren Williams put the offense on his back last week, accounting for 129 of 242 (53.3%) offensive yards. He also found the end zone. Puka Nacua was subpar by his standards, but his eight receptions and 56 yards both led the way. It's a much better matchup and the weather won't be an issue.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Cooper Kupp has ruined fantasy managers the past two weeks with a combined three grabs for 24 yards. He's not in that must-start tier, but he's still close to it when you consider the matchup, weather conditions, and offense.

Player No. 2 - Similar to Kupp, Matthew Stafford dropped off the last two outings, but it's an ideal spot for him to throw multiple touchdowns and 250 yards. He's a quality streamer.

Player No. 3 - Tyler Higbee returned to action for the first time since his knee injury in the playoffs against the Lions. He immediately made his presence felt by scoring a touchdown. With injuries piling up to tight ends and quarterbacks, he's worth a look as a streamer who can find the end zone.

Offense No. 3 - Washington Commanders

Washington got down 14-0 in the first eight minutes of the contest against Philly. It looked like a blowout until Jalen Hurts suffered a head injury, forcing him to exit the game. The Eagles maintained their lead by trading touchdowns before halftime and outplayed the Commanders in the third quarter. Yet, despite committing five turnovers, they stormed back with 21 points in the final quarter to steal a win with a last-second score.

It was an impressive victory that increased their playoff odds and kept them in the hunt for the division. After that monumental win, they sit fourth in points per game with 28.8, sixth in offensive touchdowns with 3.13, fifth in offensive yards with 373.53, and fifth in plays per game with 64.6.

From one bird to another, they host the Falcons in Week 17. It's a critical matchup for both teams. It's one that looked like a gimme for several weeks, but with Michael Penix Jr. taking over at QB, two rookie signal-callers could put on a show. The over/under of 47 suggests some potential fireworks as well.

The obvious: Jayden Daniels was spectacular with 258 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. Plus, he added nine carries for 81 yards. He's been on a superb run since healing from his rib injury. Terry McLaurin remains his No. 1 target and fought through the talented Philly secondary to another good outing.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Brian Robinson Jr. is quickly becoming a tough player to trust. The combination of Daniels running more and the running back platoon is sinking his value. He led the way with 12 touches, but Jeremy McNichols had six and Chris Rodriguez Jr. had three. It's likely a result of his two fumbles, but it's a problem. He falls into flex territory.

Player No. 2 - Zach Ertz cleared the concussion protocol, but wasn't nearly as involved as usual. It's not a great matchup against Atlanta, so he lands in the streaming category.

Player No. 3 - With Noah Brown out, Olamide Zaccheaus emerged as the No. 2 receiver. Jamison Crowder also returned from injury and immediately found the end zone twice. Neither is someone you can be confident in, but both have a shot to score if this one hits the over.

Offense No. 4 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay suffered several injuries but battled through them to win games. Couple that with the decline of Kirk Cousins and it was set to lock up the NFC South division crown. Unfortunately, it made costly mistakes that led to a defeat in Dallas. The Bucs need to win out and get help from Atlanta losing to Washington or Carolina.

Their offense is still playing well, averaging 28.47 points per game (fifth), 3.27 offensive touchdowns (fourth), 389.8 offensive yards (third), and 63.73 plays per week (eighth).

The first step toward a playoff berth is knocking off the Panthers at home. They beat them a few weeks ago but it required overtime. Speaking of which, the Panthers are fresh off an upset against Arizona in extra time. They've shown improvement offensively, but their defense remains susceptible, especially on the ground.

The obvious: Baker Mayfield was great with 303 yards and two touchdowns passing. He ran for 42 yards, too. Mike Evans had a modest night matched up against DaRon Bland, but he'll torch Carolina's secondary. Bucky Irving continued to roll with 92 scrimmage yards and a score.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Jalen McMillan kept his touchdown streak intact. Additionally, he hauled in five passes for 57 yards. He's cemented himself as the No. 2 wideout behind Evans, making him a strong flex option.

Player No. 2 - With Irving healthy, Rachaad White took a backseat as a runner, but he caught seven balls for 50 yards, which is where he excels. He's got top-20 upside in a fabulous matchup.

Offense No. 5 - Dallas Cowboys

It's been a brutal year for Dallas, which is usually preparing for its annual first-round playoff exit. Unfortunately for it, a slow start and injuries to key players derailed its campaign. Despite the temptation to mail it in amid the questions about its coach's future, it produced a hard-fought victory against Tampa Bay on Sunday night. The Cowboys have a chance to keep playing spoiler and support their coach.

Backup quarterback and all, they rank 20th in points per game with 21.6, 28th in offensive touchdowns with 1.8, 16th in offensive yards with 328.07, and fifth in plays per week with 64.6. The season-long numbers don't accurately reflect the past five outings where they've averaged 21.17 points per game with a 4-1 record.

Putting a damper on the playoff hopes for the Buccaneers was satisfying, but cratering any chance of their hated rivals earning the No. 1 seed in Philadelphia is a whole other level of motivation. You can bet everything you have they'll relish the opportunity.

The obvious: CeeDee Lamb is the epitome of that toughness. He battled through a shoulder injury to haul in seven passes for 105 yards. He's a beast that won't quit.

UPDATE: With Lamb ruled out and the potential for bad weather, this offense and these players are riskier than before.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Rico Dowdle had a tough day against a quality run defense. It's exactly how this matchup projects. He'll need to be part of their passing attack to pay off, making him a risky flex option.

Player No. 2 - The only other player to consider is Cooper Rush, who is averaging 226.2 yards and 1.8 touchdowns as a passer during the last five weeks. He threw for 292 and one against the Bucs and could be a streamer this week in a pinch.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 17. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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