College Football Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 7 2024) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick'em Contests

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 7 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

It was a rough week for the RotoBaller Readers group again. Not one entry broke 40 points. 39 points from "ntmdtr1" led the way with "GreatestMomentsinFB" and "RSZ22" tying for second with 37 points. Only four more entries topped 35 points. You won't find me anywhere near that. My 27 points on the week lost me a couple of places.

"mr_richard" leads the group for the third consecutive week with 227 points. "wpepper71" is only three points behind now. "IUBB1!" cracks the top three with 221 points. "big papi10" is in fourth with 220 points. "bullgator" and "ertlt" round out the top five with 217 points. There are only 10 points between first and sixth now, so it's getting tight at the top again!

"lbockenek" is in seventh with 215 points. "ntmdtr1" moves up to eighth place. "50Centi" and "dlobo4" round out the top 10 with 212 points. Eight more entries are still above 200 points, so that group is at least within shouting distance of the top. Week 6 was a crazy one and likely won't be the last one of the season.

College Football Pick'em Overview

This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.

(1) Arizona over BYU

Maybe I'm just dumb because I keep chasing the upside of Arizona, but BYU is just Texas Tech with a less potent run game. The Arizona defense has played well except for the Kansas State game. BYU's defense is similar to the three that Arizona just faced, but I'll count on Arizona not to give up the huge plays on defense and special teams where BYU thrives.

This is a total point grab on my part. The public is overwhelmingly (95%) on Arizona despite the spread in Vegas only being 4.5 points. Since the percentage on BYU is so high, I'm expecting that many entries will have quite a few points on it. What's losing one more point on the field if Arizona doesn't pull this out? I wouldn't have put a lot of points on BYU anyway.

(2) Wisconsin over Rutgers

I will make this as simple as I can. I trust Braedyn Locke more than Athan Kaliakmanis when it comes to taking care of the ball. I like the Wisconsin receivers more than Rutgers. All that the Badgers have to do is keep Kyle Monangai from scoring three touchdowns. That's doable, right?

(3) Oregon over Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Oregon All Time Record....

OSU is 9-1 all time vs. Oregon.

OSU is 1-0 all time at Oregon. OSU won that game 30-0 in 1967.

Avg. score of all games is OSU 26 - Oregon 12.

OSUs only loss vs. Oregon was 2021.

— Jeremiah (@SYRmotsag) October 7, 2024

Honestly, I'm still on the fence about this one and might move it down. If the quarterback is the most important position on the field, Oregon wins. That said, Ashton Jeanty ran wild on the Ducks and Ohio State has two backs that are almost as good as Jeanty is.

I'll call the receivers a wash, and Ohio State will have the better defense. My issue here is that Oregon has been tested and won close games. Ohio State's best opponent is the Michigan State team that the Ducks smoked last Friday. I think the Zoo comes through for Duck U.

(4) Iowa over Washington

I have reservations about this one as well, and it's all because of Iowa's offense and their unwavering commitment to Cade McNamara. Kaleb Johnson is an excellent back, though, and Michigan got loose a few times in Seattle.

As bad as McNamara is, he's still better than anything his former school has right now. That's enough for me to take Iowa with Washington coming to the Midwest.

(5) Kansas State over Colorado

K-State hasn't won in Boulder since 2006 and lost six of the last 10 against the Ralphies before they fled the Big 12. In fact, Willie has only won in Boulder five times in 33 tries. I know that K-State was arguably the worst major college football team until Bill Snyder got there, but that can't explain away all of those losses.

I've toyed with moving this one down, but one thing keeps coming back: Colorado's defensive shortcomings. Nebraska ran all over them, and K-State will do the same.

(6) Pittsburgh over California

I still think Pitt will win this, but I'm not as gung-ho about it as the 89% of the public on Pitt. I feel like my confidence wager will be lower than many with so many toss-ups this week. The game is in Pittsburgh, so Pitt gets the edge. Expect a high-scoring affair, though.

(7) LSU over Mississippi

Ole Miss will be playing its seventh game in seven weeks on Saturday.

LSU is coming off a bye week. Death Valley at night. Tigers are home underdogs.

The Rebels are really in for a challenge this week.

— Brendan Moore (@bmoorecfb) October 7, 2024

Come on...it's Death Valley at night! The public is still nearly 60% on Ole Miss. I feel really good about LSU here, so I might move this one up.

(8) Penn State over USC

I know that this game is out west, but I just don't trust the USC defense to be able to hold Penn State enough to win this game. Maybe the Trojans were caught looking ahead in Minneapolis last Saturday. Maybe not. The fact is a middling Minnesota offense had this defense on its heels for much of the game.

As much as I may get after the Penn State offense, it's still better than Minnesota's. The USC defensive line isn't strong enough to stop the Penn State offense for an entire game.

(9) Iowa State over West Virginia

Matt Campbell's trademark defense leads the way. The Cyclone offense continues to play well. Jaylon Jackson has surpassed Abu Sama III and Jayden Higgins is at least as potent as Jaylin Noel, but the premise is the same. Methodical offense, lock-down defense. Rinse, repeat.

(10) Washington State over Fresno State

Total Offense Leaders (Yards Per Game):

1. Cam Ward (Miami) - 396.7
2. John Mateer (WSU) - 376.4
8. Shedeur Sanders (CU) - 331
10. Devon Dampier (New Mexico) - 328.2
18. Dillon Gabriel (Oregon) - 304
23. Emmett Brown (SJSU) - 287.6

— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) October 8, 2024

One is a contender for the Heisman Trophy. The other is an island on a wayward team without a conference. A stalwart who is steering the team in the right direction. Oh...and he's going to demolish Fresno State.

Mikey Keene has regressed. Josh Kelly is in Lubbock. The defense is still struggling. This is not a Fresno team that's equipped to deal with the Cougar offense.

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