Fantasy Football Players Set To Fall Short Of Their ADP At TE In 2024

Which fantasy football tight ends will fall short of their ADP in 2024? Andrew Ball looks at three tight ends who won't live up to their preseason ADP this season.

In most offseasons, we hear, "Tight end is actually pretty deep this year." Then, the season wraps, and there's only a handful of lineup-staple tight ends and a boatload of others that are replaceable any given week.

Is this finally the year that multiple valuable tight ends are uncovered in the middle-to-late rounds? Or will history repeat itself, and those tight ends fall short of their ADP?

Whether it's the cream of the crop disappointing fantasy managers or the mid-round tight ends that offer potential upside, below are three tight ends who could fall short of their ADP in 2024.

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Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (ADP: 24)

After a record-breaking rookie season, Sam LaPorta is ADP's TE1 in 2024. The Lions' second option in the passing game will cost fantasy managers a second or third-round pick for his sophomore campaign. For the argument's sake of this article, LaPorta can only match or fall short of his ADP.

LaPorta held his own in receiving statistical categories (fifth in targets, sixth in target share, fourth in receptions, and fifth in receiving yards). Many of his efficiency numbers also ranked in the top ten. But the pièce de résistance was his league-leading 10 touchdowns. The next-highest total by a tight end was six scores.

LaPorta scored on 11.5% of his catches, which may be unsustainable. Travis Kelce, the best tight end of this generation, has a career touchdown rate of 8.3%. Fantasy managers are banking on LaPorta becoming one of the all-time greats (or at least the younger version of Mark Andrews). That's a big bet to make when some of the upper echelons of running backs and wide receivers are still on the board.

How do TEs stack up value wise in PPR fantasy football?

2023 Rankings among ALL RBs, WRs & TEs - Based on Total Points: 🏆💰

- TE1 Sam LaPorta = 26th most points
- TE2 Evan Engram = 31st most points
- TE3 Travis Kelce = 39th most points
- TE4 TJ Hockenson = 40th most points
-… pic.twitter.com/Sw9Hjcm4k6

— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) June 20, 2024

The counterargument for LaPorta is that little has changed on the Detroit offense from last season. Amon-Ra St. Brown and LaPorta will be the primary targets. They'll own one of the best rushing attacks in the league with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The offensive line is elite. The one loss is depth wideout Josh Reynolds. Jared Goff doesn't play outside until Week 9. He averaged 24 more passing yards per game on nearly five fewer attempts in domes versus outside. The differences in touchdowns are even more eye-opening (24 in 11 games versus five in five).

Should you fade LaPorta in drafts? No, he's a reasonable cost at the back end of the second round and he'll be a set-it-and-forget-it option at the position. But be warned. If those touchdown numbers slip into the single digits, LaPorta may not be the top tight end he's projected to be. He was, after all, third in fantasy points per game in full PPR formats.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 34)

Although he appeared to be slowing down last season, Travis Kelce scored 14.6 PPR points per game, tied for first at the position. It's a spot not unfamiliar to the 34-year-old. He's finished as the TE1 in total points in six of the last eight seasons. Two missed games in 2023 prevented him from claiming that number-one spot again.

Kelce is the cheapest he's been since before the 2017 season, right after his first 1,000-yard campaign. Since 2018, Kelce has oscillated between reaching and failing to reach double-digit touchdowns. Uncoincidentally, his ADP has also swung from single to double digits since 2020.

More importantly, his snap share has dropped every season since 2018. He was once in the mid-to-upper 90's. He was on the field for fewer than 80% of the snaps last season.

With the breakouts of wide receiver Rashee Rice, running back Isiah Pacheco, and an elite Kansas City defense, Kelce wasn't as essential as he was in prior years. Those components to the Chiefs' winning formula also allowed Kelce to better recover from the various bumps and bruises (knee bruise, ankle sprain) sustained throughout the season. The Chiefs also weren't as explosive as they were earlier in the Patrick Mahomes era. They didn't need to be with a defense that surrendered the second-fewest points and total yards per game. That led to Kelce's lowest yards per target (8.1) of his career.

Can Kelce dethrone LaPorta as the TE1 in 2024? Absolutely. But the odds are higher that the Chiefs take a more conservative route with their aging star. While the middle of the field may be more open for Kelce because of the outside threats (Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy) they're now rostering, they also won't have to depend on the tight end as much during the regular season. The Chiefs will do anything to keep Kelce in peak condition in their quest for a three-peat.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 98)

Was David Njoku's career year a product of the former first-round pick finally breaking out in his seventh NFL season or a change under center? Breakouts are rare for 27-year-olds.

Njoku secured 81 receptions on 123 targets for 882 yards and six touchdowns last season. Those were all career-best marks and led to the TE6 finish. Twenty of those receptions came while Deshaun Watson was the starting quarterback. He averaged just 38.3 yards per game with Watson. That number jumped to 62.5 yards per game, with Joe Flacco and Dorian Thompson-Robinson leading the team.

the placement here, just... no words 😵#CLEvsHOU on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/ILOlz5pnB1

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 24, 2023

If Njoku's stats with Watson were calculated at a 17-game pace, he would have finished as the TE12. That still makes him a TE1, but his receptions largely carry the weight in PPR formats. The yardage and touchdown totals would be concerning.

Can Njoku keep up the healthy reception pace with a new offense in Cleveland? Amari Cooper should continue to be the target leader. Former Denver Bronco Jerry Jeudy was acquired in the offseason and immediately signed to a $52.5M extension. Elijah Moore saw over 100 targets in 2023. Running back Nick Chubb is expected back at some point during the season if he's not ready by Week 1. And to top it all off, there's a new offensive coordinator in town. Ken Dorsey joined the staff after being fired from the same position in Buffalo during the 2023 season.

The price for Njoku isn't steep. He's being selected right before the triple-digit picks begin. But there's a recipe for disappointment that can lead fantasy managers to the waiver wire after a few weeks of the Watson-Njoku connection, or lack thereof.

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