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Happy Monday! What a weird slate we have tonight; only six games, a 7:40 p.m. start time, and just two games (including the chalkiest of chalk) starting in the last window. More than anything, it’s that chalky Dodgers game that’s going to make this a tough slate. Do you want to eat that chalk, or do you want to fade it and then watch the game and hope Los Angeles forgets how to hit? On a bigger slate, it’d be a lot easier to fade the Dodgers, but with just six games, you’re going to have to get creative.
Many people could turn to Texas as an alternative, but the Rangers have struggled against left-handed pitching this year with only Adolis Garcia showing any type of success against lefties. One team that may be worth a look is the Twins going up against Luis Castillo. He’s given up a ton of power to left-handed bats this year, and the Twins have a trio of lefties who pound right-handed pitching (Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff).
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/6/2024 and the slate locking at 7:40 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Cole Ragans (KC/LHP) vs. Milwaukee Brewers ($8.8K DK, $9.5K FD)
Let’s all pray that the “DTD” notation doesn’t get removed from Cole Ragans’ status on FanDuel or DraftKings because that may be enough to keep his ownership down, and it shouldn’t be. My pitching model loves Ragans tonight at home against the Brewers. He has the highest strikeout rate and swinging strike rate of any pitcher on the slate, has only allowed 0.25 home runs per nine innings, and has thrown five or more innings in all but one start this year (including four games of six or more innings pitched). He has also scored 20 or more DraftKings points in five of his seven starts, giving him a solid cash game floor.
Meanwhile, the Brewers have been awful against left-handed pitching in 2024. Their expected starting lineup has a wOBA of under .300 and ISO of under .140 against southpaws this year. None of the batters on Milwaukee have ever faced Ragans, and that should be an advantage for the pitcher in this situation. He’s more desirable of a pick on DraftKings at a very reasonable $8,800, but an argument can be made for him on FanDuel if you want to spend up in a tournament.
Cole Ragans masterclass and the win 🔥 #WelcomeToTheCity https://t.co/vV6sXPBQQT pic.twitter.com/xbFr0jcGxE
— Charles (Dynasty CHAMP Chuck) (@cpenn4thewin) May 1, 2024
Andrew Heaney (TEX/LHP) at Oakland Athletics ($6.6K DK, $7.7K FD)
What in the world is going on with Heaney’s price? He started the season slowly, sure, but he’s been more than serviceable over these last three starts; surely more than his price would indicate. Over those three starts, he’s averaged 16 DraftKings points and 27 FanDuel points, more than respectable performances for sure.
Those three games were against a pesky Washington team, a decent Seattle offense, and the Atlanta Braves. Tonight, he gets the lowly Oakland Athletics, a team whose expected lineup can’t get on base (.250 wOBA), but who strikes out a ton (25% strikeout rate) against left-handed pitching. The entire team has a .233 batting average and a 33.3% strikeout rate against Heaney in 30 career at-bats…and the game takes place in Oakland, which is notoriously a pitcher-friendly park. Heaney is an ideal cash game SP2 on DraftKings and is worth a look as your cash pitcher on FanDuel.
Also Consider: Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Simeon Woods Richardson
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Michael Massey - 2B, KC vs. Bryse Wilson ($3.3K DK, $2.7K FD)
It’s not sustainable long-term, but Michael Massey is playing very well at the moment. He had double-digit fantasy points in four straight games and was riding a seven-game hitting streak heading into Sunday’s game. He’s been hitting right-handed pitching for surprising power, posting a .396 wOBA and .243 ISO, which is second on the team.
Bryse Wilson, meanwhile, is getting killed by lefties, allowing a .581 slugging percentage on the season. In five road starts this year, he has a 4.50 ERA, and my pitching model has him as the worst pitcher on the slate. While that’s not a direct correlation to offensive success, Massey is a fantastic cheap option who can help you spend up on some of the more expensive bats we will want to use tonight.
Edouard Julien - 2B, MIN vs. Luis Castillo ($4.7K DK, $3.3K FD)
As was referenced in the intro, we may want to attack Luis Castillo tonight. He’s been outstanding over his last four starts, but that hasn’t helped his numbers against left-handed bats this year. On the season, he’s allowed a slugging percentage over .600 and a wOBA of over .400 against lefties. He’s also struck out 12% fewer lefties than righties.
The Twins have a trio of lefties who hit right-handed pitching hard, and Julien is right at the top of that list with a team-leading .268 ISO against righties. This is a home game for the Twins, and Julien has been a beast at home. He’s scored more than twice as many points per game at home and has hit six of his seven home runs at Target Field.
Manny Machado - 3B, SD at Justin Steele ($4.8K DK, $3.5K FD)
This will be Justin Steele’s first start since Opening Day. We usually like to target pitchers in this situation as these return starts are generally closely managed. Steele is a solid pitcher, but if there’s one area of weakness, it’s against right-handed power bats. He allowed a .455 slugging percentage against righties last year.
Manny Machado has been great this year, especially against left-handed pitching. He’s shown monster power with a .333 ISO and .523 slugging percentage in 26 at-bats. Machado has also been a source of consistent fantasy points with a hit in 21 of his last 23 games, going over 10 fantasy points in a third of those games. He hasn’t shown a huge ceiling yet this year, but that consistent floor does make him a strong cash option in this matchup.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Shohei Ohtani - OF, LAD vs Roddery Munoz ($6.5K DK, $4.5K FD)
Shohei Ohtani has scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of his last 15 games, justifying his incredibly high price point. He’s hitting bombs like crazy, with 10 on the year, but he’s also been a threat on the basepaths with a surprising seven stolen bases so far this year. There’s really no reason not to use Ohtani any time a righty is on the mound other than his prohibitive price point, but we can make it work with some of the value available at pitcher. His .415 ISO and .532 wOBA against righties is just icing on the cake to solidify Ohtani as the prime pay-up option on tonight’s slate.
Shohei Ohtani has homered in back-to-back games! pic.twitter.com/4XMyuB1RZb
— MLB (@MLB) May 5, 2024
Trevor Larnach - OF, MIN vs. Luis Castillo ($4.1K DK, $3.1K FD)
I covered my desire to stack lefties against Luis Castillo when writing about Edouard Julien, and all of that carries over to Trevor Larnach. He has been lights out against righties, posting a .235 ISO, .353 batting average, and .588 slugging percentage in 40 at-bats. He’s also been hot lately, scoring double-digit fantasy points four times in his last 10 games while putting up a .406 batting average. He’s not cash game viable given how well Luis Castillo has been over his last handful of starts, but he’s a prime tournament stacking option or as a one-off on either site.
Jurickson Profar - OF, SD at Justin Steele ($3.9K DK, $3.3K FD)
Jurickson Profar’s price is broken on DraftKings. How is he only $3,900 given how well he’s been playing lately? Over his last 10 games, he has a .474 batting average with three home runs and a 1.275 OPS. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games. He also is hammering lefties this year with a .280 ISO and .560 slugging percentage. We already spoke about wanting to attack Justin Steele when talking about Manny Machado, and that all holds true with Profar as well. Profar is a cash game lock on DraftKings and can be part of a Padres stack on FanDuel, where his price is more in line with his current high level of play.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Roddery Munoz (MIA/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith
2. Minnesota Twins vs. Luis Castillo (SEA/RHP)
Favorite Plays: Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers
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