RADIO
Well, the Brahmas and Showboats are looking like two of the best teams in the league, the two best 2023 XFL teams ended up getting worked, the Birmingham Stallions continue to roll, and Jake Bates kicked his way 64 yards into legendary status--all in Week 1.
I never should have faded the Birmingham Stallions (even though I think that game was a lot closer than people are giving it credit for), and I guess we all grossly overestimated where the St. Louis Battlehawks are--or at least where the Michigan Panthers are. However, this was a great week to roll mostly on the unders, and in getting the Brahmas/Showboats as ML plays, overall that is as good of a UFL Week 1 as I could have asked for, and my future picks on Memphis and San Antonio at +800 and +1400 to take the league are looking pretty solid so far as well.
Now--in understanding that a feel for this season was always going to be another work in progress, let's fix our sights on the Week 2 matchups.
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Power Rankings
- Birmingham Stallions
- San Antonio Brahmas (now +500 to win the UFL Championship)
- Memphis Showboats
- Michigan Panthers (now +900 to win the UFL Championship)
- Arlington Renegades
- St. Louis Battlehawks (still +450 to win UFL Championship)
- D.C. Defenders
- Houston Roughnecks
Week 2 Picks
San Antonio Brahmas at Memphis Showboats (Saturday, April 6th, at 12PM ET)
San Antonio (-2), O/U 40
Both of these teams were heavily slept-on in the preseason championship odds and both started off victorious in their 2024 campaigns; with San Antonio giving D.C. the business 27-12 in the Alamodome, and Memphis handling the Roughnecks 18-12 in Houston. For the Brahmas, the coaching competency has clearly been improved greatly, and many of the concers about Chase Garbers as starting QB have been quelled, as he zipped for 19 of 25 passing for 156 yards (although, just 6.2 Y/C) and two touchdowns. Jontre Kirklin already looks like he will be carrying a majority of the receiving load, and for good reason--but the real story on offense is RB Anthony McFarland. He finished the week fourth in league rushing with 47 yards despite just nine carries, and added a long reception as well. For the Brahmas' sake, let's hope that guy gets more work, because the optics make him look like the Incredible Hulk playing with a bunch of Bruce Banners. SA's defense was stout, and the Defenders looked disjointed on offense all day, as Jordan Mosley and Jordan Williams led the way in tackling, and Darius Phillips picking off Jordan Ta'amu.
The Showboats played a surprisingly close game with Houston, but never really felt like they were out of control of the game. It was a well-rounded defensive effort and frankly, there just wasn't much to stop with the Roughnecks offense. I have yet to see any indications that Darius Victor and Trey Williams are anything but good-to-go for today, but John DeFilippo should have a better plan to maximize their production, because other than some receptions by both and solid special teams production from Williams, this new-look Showboats offense looked completely devoid of a rushing attack in Week 1. Case Cookus was surprisingly average, but I feel like that's how he started last year for the Philadelphia Stars too, and the Showboats pass-catchers looked dangerous and well-balanced between Jonathan Adams, Daewood Davis, Sage Surratt, and Vinny Papale.
This might be the most interesting matchup of the week, just for the fact that we are waiting to see if either teams comes out of Week 2 looking fraudulent. I think one thing to note about the San Antonio Brahmas--their OL seems to be solid in allowing the one sack and enough time for Garbers to get accurate shots off, while Captain Cookus got sacked three times, albeit against a Roughnecks squad that has plenty of high-level defensive talent. The Showboats are +105 on the ML, and I don't think that number is horrible at home, but in comparing their Week 1 results, Memphis would need a vast improvement in their ground game to compete with the offensively well-rounded Brahmas. As a Showboats fan, I say with a heavy heart that I have to defer to San Antonio until further notice--I see this game ending with a final score range of 21-17 to 28-21 Brahmas, and so this is one game where I think you go over.
Arlington Renegades at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, April 6th, at 8PM ET)
St. Louis (-5), O/U 41
A disappointing week for both XFL staples last week. To be fair, even though the Renegades ended up losing 27-14 to the Birmingham Stallions, that game was 11-11 with like six minutes left in the third quarter before the Stallions went on a 16-3 run, so maybe it wasn't as devastating for Arlington as the narrative suggests. Luis Perez had a good day for the most part, and it is clear that Sal Cannella will continue to be an anchor for this offense, but their backfield struggled against the talented Birmingham defense, with neither Leddie Brown or De'Veon Smith able to get anything going. It was a well-rounded defensive effort too before the wheels fell off. I was way wrong on this Week 1 matchup, and now I just consider it unfair and confusing in Week 2 when you start the season against the best team in Spring Football.
St. Louis somehow found themselves up one in this game, and it took a 64-yard field goal from the story of the week to win it for Michigan, but the Battlehawks clearly have issues. Their passing game was the best thing that they had. A.J. McCarron completed 24 of 37 passes for 216 yards and two touchdowns to a solid set of receivers led by Marcell Ateman and TE Jake Sutherland. Wayne Gallman was rather ineffective on the ground and they don't have many alternative appealing options. The defense made E.J. Perry struggle at times but not enough, as he was able to gain too many yards per completion, and the Battlehawks looked completely incapable of putting a stop to Wes Hills.
I don't think Arlington is a bad ML play at +180, but what gives me pause is the fact that this is going to be the home debut for the Battlehawks in front of a ton of rowdy fans. Otherwise, I think these teams did very similar things in Week 1 against better USFL opponents, and I'll give credit to Arlington at the fact that they had to play the best team in the league. I think Arlington is the better team, and I think their ground game can be more effective in this matchup, but with the home advantage, this game could end up anywhere from 21-17 to 27-24 for either team. In the indoor environment, I think offense will be more of a factor today, so I'm opting for the over, and I think the Renegades can keep it within five.
Birmingham Stallions at Michigan Panthers (Sunday, April 7th, at 12PM ET)
Birmingham (-6.5), O/U 41.5
A USFL vs. USFL matchup with both teams entering 1-0, beating the two teams that we just discussed at length. Playing at Ford Field will make little to no difference today other than the fact that Birmingham won't have their home field advantage. What more can you say about Skip Holtz and the Stallions at this point? They are the most challenging team to write about every week, because they are just consistently the best. It was a bit of a shaky start for Matt Corral, but he ended the day looking like maybe the franchise's most dynamic quarterback yet, and C.J. Marable got the usage and production that a running back of his caliber calls for. The whole of the Birmingham pass-catchers looked dangerous behind Deon Cain, Ricky Person Jr., Binjimen Victor, Jace Sternberger, and Marlon Williams, and Adrian Martinez came in the game to add 52 yards rushing on three attempts, good for third-best in the UFL. The defense, from the linebackers to secondary, looked phenomenal, as the Renegades were completely stifled in the second half.
E.J. Perry was rough as a passer with a 50% completion percentage and two picks, but he added two scores on the ground. However, the QB position is probably the weakest aspect of the Panthers offense. The receivers proved to be underrated in a well-rounded effort with Devin Ross and Cole Hikutini catching for big gains, and the defensive effort anchored by Kai Nacua and Daniel Wise made it very hard for St. Louis to get anything going all game. At the very least, we know that this Michigan Panthers squad is capable of booting very long field goals, which is not unimportant in a league designed to result in close games.
Ultimately, I will now refuse to fade the Birmingham Stallions against anyone but an NFL team moving forward until I am given reason otherwise. Birmingham went on the road to take on the 2023 XFL champions, and even though the game remained close or tied for a while, we got glimpses of the Stallions performing at their best, and it looks every bit like the makings of a 2024 UFL champion. Michigan can get a certain part of the way with their ground game and defense, and at this point are a nice value at +900 to win the league (what a difference a week makes), but that is simply not enough. I think Birmgham takes this anywhere 27-10 to 31-17, but if the Stallions defense is able to hone in on Wes Hills, E.J. Perry won't make up the difference. I think you opt for under here with Birmingham winning by at least a TD.
Houston Roughnecks at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, April 7th, at 4PM ET)
D.C. (-5), O/U 40.5
Technically a USFL vs. XFL matchup, both of these teams enter 0-1, scoring a combined 24 points last week in uninspiring efforts. The D.C. Defenders got truly overwhelmed by the Brahmas A.J. Smith-coordinated offense, and despite Jordan Ta'amu leading the league in passing yards, his day was marred by inefficiency and a lacking endzone presence. Not to mention that without Abram Smith, their running game was virtually non-existent, and that is a big problem for a team that also lost most of their top receiving production from last year. They just never looked comfortable on offense with limited rushing options and Ta'amu shouldering such a vast share of the load. Even though Chase Garbers was dumping off quickly, the Defenders didn't seem to bring too much pressure, because the Anthony McFarland looked like a superhero on the field and Garbers was sacked just once.
A commendable effort from the Houston Roughnecks. It felt like they were never really in the game, and yet they had a chance to to win the game in the final minutes if they could put a successful drive together, the odds of which were low. Jarrett Guarantano threw for only 158 yards and zero touchdowns, but to his credit, did not throw an interception and completed 16 of 21 passes (76.2%). He was also their leading rusher with 22 yards on two attempts--but T.J. Pledger was second with just 14 yards on six tries. Not a good sign for a team still without Mark Thompson. With Thompson, it's a whole different conversation. It was a well-rounded yet underwhelming effort from the Houston receivers, with Kirk Merritt leading the way with 34 yards on four catches (21st in the UFL). If anyone might be set up for bigger performances moving forward, the potential is there for Justin Hall. The best thing that the Roughnecks offer is their intimidating defense being held down by Reuben Foster, Toby Johnson, Oliver Sagapolu, Donald Rutledge Jr., and Corn Elder. That combined force could really cause nightmares for this lost D.C. Defenders offense.
The homefield advantage in this one is strong for the Defenders, but I can't ignore that the most impressive unit on the field is going to be the Houston defense. If Houston can add any more offense on the ground from Guarantano and/or Pledger, whatever Guarantano does through the air could be enough as long as he doesn't make any costly mistakes. In fact, I think Ta'amu might be the more likely of the two QBs to commit a turnover if the Roughnecks coaching staff doesn't ask anything crazy in the passing game because of the strength of Houston's defensive playmakers. Houston winning on the ML (+190) would be a rough blow for D.C. If the game gets more high-scoring, I think it is probably the Defenders prevailing. However, I don't think that this game surpasses a 21-17 mark, and I could see either team taking this 17-14. So, I actually think the Roughnecks cover five points, and I think you roll under on the last game of Week 2.
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