DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Texas Children's Houston Open With Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Stephan Jaeger, Max Greyserman and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Texas Children's Houston Open

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Texas Children's Houston Open

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 4

 

Last Five Winners Of The Texas Children's Houston Open

2023
2022	Tony Finau	-16
2021	Jason Kokrak	-10
2020	Carlos Ortiz	-13
2019

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2023
2022	1
2021	2
2020	4
2019

 

Memorial Park

7,435 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded)

Measuring marginally over 7,400 yards, Memorial Park is widely regarded as one of the top municipal golf courses in the world, something that makes the 2019 renovation of the track that much more impressive since Tom Doak was able to remodel the layout and get it back up and running for the nearly 60,000 patrons who visit the grounds each year. Doak was accompanied on the project by former world number one Brooks Koepka, and the rebuild aimed to create a challenging tournament venue that could provide dramatic lead changes down the stretch.

We see that factor come into play with six holes yielding either a 21%+ bogey or worse rate or 26%+ birdie or better percentage on the back nine, although the primary blueprint to one of Doak's designs will always be his distinctive green complexes. That remains front and center for the week because of the 5.4% percent increase in dispersion of scoring when it comes to strokes gained around the green, and players have mentioned how failing to get a putter in hand can present this ping-pong nature of going back and forth on this unique contextual setup.

Large specimen oak trees are positioned to cause issues if you are wayward off the tee, and there are weird quirks throughout, including a clamshell landing area on the par-four 10th that will create problems if you go inside of it. Add that fact to a ravine that runs through a handful of holes, green complexes that produce a 3.1% reduction in GIR percentage and fairways that are over three yards narrower than average, and you get this diabolical test that will reward quality tee-to-green play.

The move from November to March for this venue should yield even firmer grass and windier conditions. Keep that in mind when building a model. This is also not true Bermuda like it would have been later in the year. Completely different surface.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Memorial Park	PGA Average
Driving Distance	290	283
Driving Accuracy	55%	61%
GIR Percentage	62%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	56%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.50	0.55

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (35%)

 

Strokes Gained - Tee To Green (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Long Par 70s (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Long Courses (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (25%)

 

Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outright	Odds	Unit Risk	Potential Win
Doug Ghim	80	0.09	7.2
Nate Lashley	250	0.03	7.5
Andrew Novak	175	0.04	7
Max Greyserman	250	0.03	7.5
Jacob Bridgeman	300	0.02	6
Stephan Jaeger	50	0.14	7

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X. 

Pricing landed in the exact order of my model. Ownership will be the decider in this spot since all four players graded out well.

Ownership answers never entirely stay steady when more data enters the market (Scheffler will climb in popularity), but my general thought is to stack the top of this board as much as possible.

From a game theory perspective, fading the expensive and popular golfer is typically the correct strategy, but I am hoping Scheffler's price tag makes enough people question where they stand for a 30%+ name.

The American was the first golfer to ever grade number one in my model for all categories I ran.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

To me, the direct comparison in this field comes down to how to use Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Sahith Theegala and Wyndham Clark.

Unfortunately, this is what you get early in the week when pricing is correct, and the names at the top of the field are massively ahead of the options beneath them.

Some weeks, a flat build is the preferred route; this isn't one of them. I can find enough value at the bottom of the board to mix and match everyone.

I do lean Tony Finau/Si Woo Kim as the two I am most inclined to want to play in the $9,000s.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

My model is always much higher than the market on Stephan Jaeger, something we see with my math ranking him second in projected strokes gained tee to green and fourth for expected strokes gained total at Memorial Park.

I know the current form has slipped over the past few weeks, but there is a reason Jaeger landed inside the top 10 here last year.

I also think this is a nice bounce-back spot for Doug Ghim and Aaron Rai. I fell victim to the marginal Rai chalk at the Valspar Championship, but the upside for each will come down to how their putters cooperate on this overseeded Bermuda.

The last time Rai missed back-to-back cuts came during the Wells Fargo and Byron Nelson in May of 2023.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

You can dive deeper into my model to get the exact reason certain players ranked how they did for me this week.

My model found itself most bullish on Mark Hubbard, K.H. Lee, Akshay Bhatia, and Thomas Detry.

It also believed Cameron Davis was worth a shot if he landed at sub-two percent because of his tournament-changing upside.

 

$6,000 Options To Consider

One reason I am willing to be more aggressive up top (outside of just projected win equity) was the soft pricing in this section.

I will find myself firing on a name like Max Greyserman quite frequently this week. My model believed that Greyserman ranked inside the top 30 of this field for both expected scoring and weighted strokes gained in total, a return that generated a built-in floor and upside potential at the going rate.

 

$5,000 Options To Consider

There are some limited sample size returns that I don't necessarily trust.

I decided to leave the answers where they stood because the top of the board was so consistent in its profile, but I am willing to buy back in on Jacob Bridgeman after a surprisingly lousy stretch on Thursday caused him to miss the cut.

Despite the risk, my model is projecting that to be one of the best bounce-back spots on the board for the price.

 

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+ - Tony Finau
$8,000+ - Stephan Jaeger
$7,000+ - Mark Hubbard
$6,000+ - Max Greyserman
$5,000+ - Jacob Bridgeman

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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