RADIO
Spring training is underway, March has arrived, and the fantasy baseball draft season is upon us. Wrestling with the thought of when to select a closer is a shared struggle among fantasy managers. A common misstep in drafts is to reach for the elite closers in a misguided effort to “lock down” the saves category.
Remember that in roto you are not trying to win a category, you are trying to win a league. Drafting closers early, who are essentially one-category contributors, will be detrimental to the rest of your build. On top of that, a closer’s main contribution fizzles out when his team goes on a losing streak and can disappear completely if he is replaced due to poor performance or injury. Why risk an early pick when for the relatively low reward?
Saves are available later in drafts than you might think. I’ve found a handful of closers who have ADPs of 120 or more, placing them in the 11th round or later in 12-team drafts. Instead of using your early draft capital on the first closers selected, pick through the remaining top-ranked position players and starting pitchers who can produce across the board. Then, target these arms in the middle rounds who can still keep you competitive in the saves category.
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- Cut List - Players To Consider Dropping
Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 119.7
Alright, I’m already breaking my self-imposed threshold, but Helsley makes the cut if we round up. Helsley took over closing duties for the Cardinals in 2022 and dominated. He recorded pristine ratios (1.25 ERA and 0.74 WHIP) and an otherworldly 39.3% strikeout rate on his way to earning 19 saves.
Last season, Helsley disappointed those who picked him early in the hopes of recapturing the glory of 2022. By the end of April, he was carrying a 4.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and had already blown three saves. A strained forearm landed him on the injured list in early June and he didn’t return until September 1.
Helsley rebounded nicely in that last month, though. He made 11 appearances before the end of the season, allowing just one earned run in his 11 2/3 innings pitched and earning seven more saves in the process. He finished 2023 with 14 saves, a 2.45 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP. The flamethrower is an injury risk, but he is falling late enough in drafts to make it acceptable based on what he can do when healthy.
Ryan Helsley, 102mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/hd2VH2RF3l
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 17, 2023
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 122.7
Pete Fairbanks is another closer that managers tend to be gun-shy about due to his injury history. The hard-throwing right-hander made two trips to the IL last season due to inflammation in his forearm and his ship. Looking further back, Fairbanks double-dipped in 2021 as well, missing a total of eight weeks and losing three months in 2022 thanks to a strained lat.
Despite the missed time in 2023, he did set a new high of 45 1/3 innings pitched as well as career highs in saves (25) and strikeouts (68). Fairbanks also had stellar ratios, owning a 2.45 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, and limited opponents to a .175 xBA.
Holy smokes. Pete Fairbanks just came in the 9th and closed out the Orioles by striking out the side, topping out at 101.
Rays bullpen has gone 34 straight scoreless innings. pic.twitter.com/E0wmaq0FBd
— Jordan Moore (@iJordanMoore) September 15, 2023
Aside from the injuries, the other reason managers might be hesitant to draft Fairbanks is the Rays’ history of utilizing the closer-by-committee to finish games. Fairbanks emerged from the pack though, as Jason Adam was the only other reliever in Tampa to record more than one save and most of his 12 came during and between Fairbanks’ IL stints. Fairbanks will be the primary option to close out games in 2024 and is one healthy season away from joining the ranks of the game’s top closers.
Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 123.3
After a few years of mediocre relief work, Evan Phillips finally broke out in 2022. That year, he led the Dodgers bullpen in innings pitched (63) and wins (seven) and posted a 1.14 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Even after that amazing run, it was assumed the Dodgers would employ a closer-by-committee approach until Daniel Hudson was healthy enough to take over.
As it turned out, Hudson was only healthy enough to pitch in all of three innings last year. The Dodgers did use some other relievers in the ninth throughout the year, but it was clear that Phillips was the primary option and he ended 2023 with 24 saves, a 2.05 ERA, and a 0.83 WHIP.
EVAN. PHILLIPS. pic.twitter.com/IoqVFgY9uX
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 7, 2023
A couple of weeks ago, manager Dave Roberts said that Phillips was due for “the brunt” of the Dodgers’ save chances in 2024, even though he didn’t outright name him as the team’s closer.
Los Angeles was a 100-win team last season and only got better with the additions of Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Phillips should get plenty of opportunities to close out games for the Dodgers and add saves to your leaderboard.
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
ADP: 133.3
Like Phillips, Clay Holmes is another closer in practice even if his team avoids making the role official. Aaron Boone and the Yankees have embraced the ideology of the high-leverage reliever, which means that while they recognize Holmes as the best arm in their pen, he may have to be called into action earlier than the ninth inning.
Despite the lack of commitment to the ninth inning, Holmes still came out of 2023 with his second consecutive 20-save season. He reached a new high of 24 last year to go with 71 strikeouts, a 2.86 WHIP, and a 1.17 WHIP in 63 IP.
A closer look at Holmes’ game logs offers some hope that the Yankees are trending toward saving him for the ninth more often than not. Between July 1 and the end of the season, Holmes appeared in 32 games but entered before the ninth inning in just three of them.
The bottom line is no matter how the Yankees manage their bullpen, Holmes will again be the primary option for save opportunities for a team projected to win close to 90 games.
Congratulations to @ClayHolmes21, @MLB's AL Reliever of the Month! 👏🔥 pic.twitter.com/9DoOaYDNCT
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 3, 2023
Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins
ADP: 145.7
Tanner Scott got 20 saves with the Marlins in 2022. His 31.1% strikeout rate that year resulted in 90 strikeouts out of the bullpen to boot. His command, as it always had been, was awful and he posted the worst walk rate (15.9%) of his career. His 4.31 ERA and 1.61 WHIP were ratio wreckers for fantasy managers who decided they couldn’t pass up the saves and strikeouts.
In 2023, Miami started the season with a closer-by-committee approach to bullpen management rather than run Scott out in the ninth again. Then a funny thing happened. Dylan Floro attacked the strike zone with better command than he ever had and transformed himself into one of the most effective relievers in the league. After Dylan Floro was traded and A.J. Puk faltered one too many times, the door was open for Scott to transition from setup man to closer.
September was very special month for Tanner. ☺️ pic.twitter.com/f8ZD42ZZYG
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) October 3, 2023
Scott ran with the job and finished the year with 12 saves, a 2.31 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP thanks in large part to a vastly improved walk rate (7.8%, over his career mark of 14.2% before 2023). Time will tell if Scott’s 2023 was just a fluke or if this version of him is here to stay. Given his ADP, the chance at a full season of Scott performing again at that level is well worth the risk that he reverts to his old ways.
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