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After a smaller four-game slate on Monday, we have a larger 11-game slate tonight. The matchups are not particularly exciting, but I always say any basketball is better than no basketball. With any NBA slate, I'm sure we can find a few picks we like and test our luck.
It's been a little while since I wrote an article, and I'm happy to be back. Last Thursday, when the NBA returned from the All-Star break, I went 3-0. Orlando won outright in Cleveland and didn't need the points. The Raptors comfortably beat the Nets in the first quarter, and some huge late baskets helped the Thunder and Clippers game go over the total.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 27. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (232.5 total)
The Mavericks come into this game after getting crushed in Indiana on Sunday. I think they'll rebound in this one, and I'm taking them to do it early. I just like rolling with Luka Doncic, who is tied in second place with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for first-quarter scoring average. Luka plays around 10 minutes in the first, which is always good to see. In the five games since the trade deadline, Doncic is averaging 11 points, 3.6 assists, and 2.6 rebounds in 10.6 minutes. He also has 57.6/47.1/90 shooting splits.
In its last five games, Dallas is averaging 32.4 points while hitting 52.5 percent of its FGA and 39.5 percent of its threes in the opening 12 minutes. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in the first quarter of their last five games. Donovan Mitchell missed two of those games, but he did return against the Wizards on Sunday, and the Cavs lost the first quarter, 31-27. Cleveland has only scored 26.8 points in their last five first quarters, and they are also only attempting 21 shots. Neither team's defense has been impressive to start games lately. Opponents have hit 54.4 percent of their FGA in the last five against Cleveland.
Dallas also has Kyrie Irving returning to Cleveland. Irving has not played in Cleveland since December 26, 2022, when he was a member of the Brooklyn Nets. Kyrie got off to a slow start with only two first-quarter points, but finished with 32 in the Nets victory. The Mavericks star has averaged 6.3 first-quarter points in 35 games this season.
The Mavs lost by 22 on Monday night, but it was tied 32-32 after the first quarter. I like them to come out focused to start tonight's game.
Check out our Top 🖐️ Plays of the Week!@att // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/KJysBssVAC
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) February 26, 2024
The Pick: Mavericks First Quarter +1.5 (-106 FanDuel)
Utah Jazz (+2) at Atlanta Hawks (235 total)
The Hawks received tough news last week when they learned Trae Young would be out for at least four weeks with a finger injury. In their first game without Trae, Atlanta crushed the Magic 109-92 at home. Orlando was on the second game of a back-to-back after getting a gritty win in Detroit on Saturday night.
It was a nice win for the Hawks, but Dejounte Murray had 25 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds. Atlanta also hit 12-of-29 (41%) threes, which is better than their season average of 36%. Trae Young's season has gone under the radar due to the Hawks having a bad record. Dejounte Murray can step up and have big games, but to ask him to replace Trae feels like a lot. Atlanta will be better on defense without Young, and they held a bottom-five-scoring Magic team to 92 points. I'm just skeptical of the Hawks and will opt to take the Jazz and the points.
Utah is a top-10 scoring offense and one of the best rebounding teams in the league. They also shoot well from the line and do a good job getting there. This isn't the most formidable bunch on defense, but they have good length and are one of the best defenses preventing point guards from scoring. If Utah can slow down Dejounte Murray, I like them in this game. The Jazz are 13-16 ATS on the road. Atlanta is a league-worst 9-21 ATS in home games. I'll take the Jazz, who are still fighting to reach the play-in.
❄️ 𝟏𝟏𝐭𝐡 game with 5+ threes for The Finnisher ❄️#PlayerHighlights | @zionsbank pic.twitter.com/aWAbB2ZbGY
— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) February 26, 2024
The Pick: Jazz +2 (-110 PointsBet)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Golden State Warriors (-11) at Washington Wizards (239.5 total)
I thought about taking the over in this game, but didn't feel confident with the Wizards' ability to put up points. The play I'm going with here is the Warriors team total over. Washington has stunk on defense all season and is only 0.1 percent away from tying the Pistons for the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
The Wizards allow the most points per game, with opponents scoring 124.2. Opponents are shooting 50 percent on FGA and also attempting 93.2 per game, which is the second most. I like that number because it means teams are having a high volume of shots against the Wizards. This should work in the Warriors' favor, as they average the third-most shots in the league at 91.9. Washington actually averages 91.7 FGA, but they score almost five fewer points per game than Golden State. The Warriors have also been a top-10 defense in their last 10 games, which is why I'm avoiding anything to do with the Wizards offensively.
Washington allows the most rebounds in the league and the most second-chance points by a healthy margin. Again, this should be a big advantage for a Warriors team that is fourth in offensive rebounds per game, fourth in total rebounds per game, and second in second-chance points.
Everything lines up well for the Warriors to have success in this game. The Warriors put up 129 points in the 129-118 victory in the Chase Center over the Wizards on December 22. Washington's best defender Deni Avdija has missed the last two games, and even if he plays tonight, he might be banged up.
Back to back Klay 👌 pic.twitter.com/S0Rir1dpO7
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) February 26, 2024
The Pick: Warriors Team Total Over 125.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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