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Yency Almonte was recently traded to the Chicago Cubs. What is the fantasy baseball impact of this move and what is his outlook as a Chicago relief pitcher?
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs swung a notable trade recently that saw young infielder Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte to the Windy City in exchange for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope.
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His results have not been linear, however, but more of a roller coaster ride. It begs the question: Will he offer the Cubs value this season? What about fantasy baseball value? Let's dive into both and take a look at what Almonte brings to the table.
What Value Does Yency Almonte Bring to the Cubs and Potential Fantasy Baseball Managers?
In a nutshell, Almonte's big-league results have been about as volatile as you will see on a year-to-year basis.
A 2012 Angels 17th-rounder, Almonte broke into the big leagues at age 24 in the 2018 season. He would impress with a tidy 1.84 ERA in 14 appearances out of the Rockies bullpen. The following season, he doubled his usage to 28 outings but scuffled to a 5.56 ERA. The abbreviated 2020 campaign was indeed a bounce-back with a 2.93 ERA in 24 appearances. He would then crater to a disastrous 7.55 ERA in 48 starts in his final season in Colorado in 2021.
He rewarded the Dodgers with a stealth 1.02 ERA across 33 appearances in the 2022 campaign. Once again, he would fall flat on his face the following season to a 5.06 ERA a season ago. Hop off the roller coaster, add it up, and it's a 4.51 ERA across 196 career appearances at the end of the day. The 29-year-old has managed just a pair of big-league saves in that time.
The arm is live with a 96.1 mph average on his fastball but Almonte doesn't generate many punchouts with a career 21.9% K%. Add in mediocre control and he also sports a middling 12.1% K-BB% in his 207 1/3 innings in the majors.
Despite a 5.06 ERA in 2023, Almonte did put forth strong underlying numbers. He ranked in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 77th in average exit velocity, 68th in barrel rate, and 78th in whiff rate. One thing that all of his poor seasons have in common is a major spike in home run rate. There has been a direct correlation between his home run rate and ERA results. Not a huge surprise, but like his ERA figures, his home run rates (and groundball rates) have followed suit.
With Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. ahead of Almonte on the depth chart, he will likely begin the season in a middle-relief or perhaps seventh-inning role. That should leave him with few opportunities for saves and holds.
He's best left alone on draft day for now, but if his career-long trend of back-and-forth results holds, he is in for a quality season in 2024.
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