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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Divisional Round matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. The first week of the playoffs is complete. It was incredibly entertaining, chalked full of upsets and blowouts. It was also very high-scoring. Five teams scored 30-plus points, including two going over 40 and an 80-point total between Dallas and Green Bay. The two No. 1 seeds will now resume action after resting up. The remaining six teams were mostly as ranked, including the top three seeds from the AFC and two of the top three seeds from the NFC with the Packers as the exception. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers will host the Green Bay Packers. We'll also enjoy a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills along with one more week of action at Ford Field when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Detroit. Note that all the matchup data is from the regular season.
For anyone new to the column, we'll analyze every game from Wild Card Weekend, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups for whatever format or competition you're in. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. I want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, rbsdm, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There are tons of fun playoff challenges and DFS competitions you can join this time of year with great prizes. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - Sunday Games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -6.0
Implied Total: Buccaneers (21.75) vs. Lions (27.75)
Pace: Buccaneers (14th) vs. Lions (19th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (16th), -17.8% Rush (28th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 26.7% Pass (7th), 8.9% Rush (4th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 5.1% Pass (14th), -13.7% Rush (8th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 6.5% Pass (16th), -18.0% Rush (1st)
PFF Coverage Grade: Buccaneers (22nd) vs. Lions (29th)
PFF Rush D Grade: Buccaneers (26th) vs. Lions (5th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Buccaneers (12th) vs. Lions (8th)
EPA/Play Allowed: Buccaneers (8th) vs. Lions (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff entered the contest with tremendous pressure with a chance to get revenge on his old team, somewhat like proving an ex-girlfriend they were wrong for breaking up with you. He handled the adversity well with no turnovers and an 81.4% completion rate. It was a huge win for him and the franchise, winning a home playoff game for the first time in over 30 years. On top of that, thanks to their division rivals upsetting the Cowboys, they get to play at Ford Field again this week, which is huge for Goff. The risk of the touchdowns coming on the ground drops him to the QB7, but the matchup is still favorable.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
After a spectacular regular season, St. Brown delivered in his first postseason appearance with seven receptions for 110 yards. He led the way in receiving and will get a chance to torch a Tampa Bay secondary that has been beaten all year. He's atop the rankings this week as the WR1.
Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery (RB, DET)
Both backs went over 60 yards and found the end zone. Just as we projected, Montgomery led their ground attack with 14 carries while Gibbs hauled in all four of his targets. What's more impressive is that was against the toughest run defense over the past six weeks over the season in fantasy points allowed. The Buccaneers were the fourth-toughest over that stretch, but they're a worse team with at least as bad a defense overall, so you can fire these up with full confidence with Gibbs as the RB3 and Montgomery as the RB6.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta overcame the odds and managed to suit up. He ran a route on 80% of their dropbacks, earning a 12% target share. He also caught an easy touchdown on a beautifully constructed route. With another week to heal up, you'd expected him to be closer to full health. Combine that with the second-best matchup for tight ends and he deserves a spot in the top five.
UPDATE: LaPorta is listed as questionable after practicing all week. Unless we hear of a setback, he should be out there.
Chris Godwin & Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Blowing out the Eagles at home was another massive accomplishment for this squad, which continues to play inspired football. Philly's defense tackled poorly and failed to cover receivers down the field, opening the door for Trey Palmer, David Moore, and Cade Otton to run wild in the secondary. Evans and Godwin still out-targeted the other wideouts, but Evans failed to come down with multiple deep balls while Godwin did find pay dirt. It's a juicy matchup in what will likely be a negative game script, pushing these two into the top 10.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Mayfield orchestrated multiple scoring drives, capitalizing on the pathetic defensive effort from Philadelphia. He had five passes go for over 20 yards, most of them with plenty of yards after the catch, which inflated his total numbers. Nevertheless, he executed well with no turnovers. It's a great spot for him in a dome against a defense that focuses on stopping the run, but he's still a rung below the top signal-callers, landing him behind Goff as the QB8.
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White tore up the Eagles for 72 yards on the ground before they turned things over to Chase Edmonds to wrap up the game. If not for the lopsided affair, they'd have likely kept pounding the rock with him. They didn't need his pass-catching skills because there were so many wide-open throws downfield. He figures to get a full workload in what should be a tightly contested matchup that they'll potentially be trailing in, which is when the checkdowns tend to occur. He's in the top five again.
UPDATE: Edwards is listed as questionable, which further secures the workload for White.
Cade Otton (TE, TB)
Otton's route participation has been above 85% since Week 7. However, he's finished inside the top 15 just three times because he's rarely utilized. He did blow up in Week 9 with two touchdowns, but it was hard to see this one coming. What was most surprising was leading the team in targets with 11. That level of volume pushes him into the conversation around TE6.
Josh Reynolds & Jameson Williams (WR, DET)
Reynolds joined Goff in the revenge narrative, especially early in the contest. He was everywhere, hauling five passes for 80 yards when it was all said and done. Williams earned just two targets, but giving up big plays is an issue for the Buccaneers, so he's worth considering again this week. Reynolds is the safer of the two with Williams possessing more upside, but both are in that WR15-20 range.
UPDATE: Kalif Raymond has been ruled out, which increases the volume these two will see.
Injuries:
Kalif Raymond (knee)
Sam LaPorta (knee)
Kansas City at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -2.5
Implied Total: Chiefs (21.5) vs. Bills (24)
Pace: Chiefs (20th) vs. Bills (26th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (8th), -5.4% Rush (17th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 40.9% Pass (3rd), 3.1% Rush (7th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (5th), -1.7% Rush (27th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 0.1% Pass (9th), -8.7% Rush (17th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Chiefs (20th) vs. Bills (4th)
PFF Rush D Grade: Chiefs (21st) vs. Bills (29th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Chiefs (11th) vs. Bills (3rd)
EPA/Play Allowed: Chiefs (6th) vs. Bills (11th)
WEATHER: This game is forecasted to be fairly cold with moderate sustained wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen remains a man on a mission. He carved up the Steelers for 203 yards and three touchdowns through the air with a beastly run for 52 yards to the end zone as the cherry on top. Buffalo will get their shot to avenge their heartbreaking playoff losses to Kansas City, this time in Orchard Park. We saw these two meet back in Week 14, resulting in a 20-17 win for the Bills, largely because Kadarius Toney lined up offside. It's tempting to assume we'll get a shootout, but both defenses are playing well, so the over/under landing in the mid 40s makes sense. That doesn't remove Allen from his QB1 overall status though.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
Things went about as expected for Kincaid, who finished second in targets and found the end zone. Dawson Knox scored as well, which he's prone to do. It's a decent matchup and without reliable secondary receivers, Kincaid is the de facto No. 2 option. He lands at TE5 with Knox always worth a dart throw in DFS.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
The Chiefs winning at home in the fourth coldest game in NFL history while hosting the Dolphins was an easy outcome to predict. Their defense was impenetrable except for one big play to Hill while the offense did enough. Pacheco led the way with 24 carries for 89 yards and a score. The Bills defense is banged up and we know Pacheco will get all the work, so he's locked into the top five.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
It's common for a rookie wideout to improve as the season goes on, but Rice made significant strides, which he capped off with a great outing last week. As has come to be the norm, he led the way in targets, receptions, and yards, plus he hauled in the only receiving touchdown. It still feels a little strange to view him in the same light as other No. 1 options in the league, but he's proven he'll deliver time and time again. He lands just outside the top five.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce showed up relative to his regular season performances, but didn't quite hit the elite levels we're used to. He looks hurt and a little out of shape. He also had multiple blatant drops that would've made for a bigger day. They'll need his best effort to knock off the Bills. He's the TE2.
Matchups We Hate:
Chiefs Other WRs
Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James, Mecole Hardman Jr., Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross, and Skyy Moore could all be active and contribute on Sunday. Identifying if any of them will be worth taking a shot on is very difficult. Hardman Jr. gets the deep shots, so he's the preferred choice, but it's best to explore other options.
UPDATE: Moore has been ruled out while Toney and Ross are listed as questionable. Hardman remains the favorite of this bunch.
Other Matchups:
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Cook's usage was quite good with 18 carries and four receptions. He totaled 84 yards but was unable to find pay dirt because all four touchdowns came from Allen. That is the primary problem with his fantasy outlook. He's still capable of going over 100 yards with three to five targets, but the ceiling is capped with other players involved near the goal line. He's the RB7.
Stefon Diggs & Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF)
Diggs kept his momentum rolling against the Steelers with seven receptions on nine targets. They were all closer to the line of scrimmage, evidenced by his 7.33 aDot. He's been used in that way since they changed offensive coordinators, averaging more than 10 yards just four times since Week 7. The other concern for him this week is a rematch with L'Jarius Sneed, who punished Tyreek Hill last week, and dominated Diggs in their previous meeting. With Gabe Davis yet to practice, it looks like Shakir will get another chance to make an impact. He had an impressive catch-and-run touchdown last week, outmuscling defenders. Assuming Davis misses, Diggs will land around the WR8 with Shakir as the WR13.
UPDATE: Davis has been ruled out as expected.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes was good but not great once again. He threw for 262 yards and a score. The offense stalled inside the 14-yard line four times, settling for field goals, which has been an issue. Furthermore, they're not required to go for it on fourth down in those spots because their defense has been so suffocating. Mahomes has the potential to put up a top-five week, but he's firmly behind the top four.
Injuries:
Skyy Moore (knee)
Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle)
Justyn Ross (hamstring)
Gabe Davis (knee)
Matchups Analysis - Saturday Games
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -9.5
Implied Total: Texans (17) vs. Ravens (26.5)
Pace: Texans (8th) vs. Ravens (27th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 25.0% Pass (10th), -19.1% Rush (30th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 32.1% Pass (5th), 18.3% Rush (1st)
Texans Def. DVOA: 13.0% Pass (23rd), -17.2% Rush (2nd)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -28.8% Pass (1st), -14.3% Rush (7th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Texans (9th) vs. Ravens (2nd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Texans (16th) vs. Ravens (14th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Texans (15th) vs. Ravens (6th)
EPA/Play Allowed: Texans (14th) vs. Ravens (2nd)
WEATHER: This game is forecasted to be quite cold with moderate sustained wind, which could impact the passing attacks.
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
We open up the weekend with the AFC's top seed hosting a surging Texans squad. While Houston enters this one with a ton of confidence and momentum, it's easy to forget just how dominant Jackson and the Ravens were down the stretch. Not including when they rested their starters in Week 18, their last loss was in a 33-31 thriller against Cleveland way back in Week 10. They went 6-0 down the stretch, knocking off quality opponents such as the Rams, Dolphins, and 49ers. Furthermore, they suffered just three losses with their starters active by a combined 12 points.
Jackson ended the year on fire, averaging 250 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, and 2.3 touchdowns during their six-game winning streak. Houston's defense deserves credit for causing havoc for Joe Flacco last week, but the undisputed MVP is the QB2 this week.
Ravens TEs
Earning the first-round bye not only allowed the team to rest their active players but also to open the practice window for Mark Andrews. We know what his presence means for Jackson and the offense, so he'd give them an extra boost. It would be a detriment to Isaiah Likely, who has been fantastic in his absence. Andrews practiced in full and is listed as questionable, which indicates he should be out there. The question is whether they'll ease him in and to what extent. We'll await reports over the weekend, but an educated guess would be that Andrews and Likely split the snaps with Andrews playing more in the red zone and on key downs. In that scenario, Andrews and Likely would be around the top five.
UPDATE: Andrews is reported to be trending towards missing Saturday's game. His abscence would push Likely up to TE4.
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
The other player who benefited from Andrews missing time is Flowers, who has emerged as the clear No. 1 option. He's also shown the ability to produce in different ways, sometimes with higher volume on shorter throws and other times with downfield targets. Houston's top CB, Derek Stingley Jr., blanketed Amari Cooper last week, allowing only one catch for a loss of six yards when shadowing him. It's probably more of a concern for the other wideouts who tend to play outside the majority of the time, but it does drop Flowers into the WR8-WR10 range.
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Stroud absolutely balled out against the Browns, torching them on deep throws while protecting the ball. The play calling was masterful, constantly creating wide-open looks, which Stroud frequently found. He finished with an outrageous 157.2 passer rating totaling 274 passing yards and three touchdowns, despite narrowly missing a couple of deep shots that could have further added to his day. It'll be a tougher test on the road in Baltimore, but he seems ready for the challenge, slotting in as the QB4.
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Stroud's top option is of course Collins, who cannot be stopped. He was one of the receivers that nearly hauled in a long bomb, but still finished with six receptions for 96 yards and a score. In addition, he did so in a mostly positive game script while accounting for a 31.8% target share. Baltimore's secondary has been a sum of the parts group, led by Kyle Hamilton who is known more for his ability to create turnovers than his coverage. Collins is firmly in the top five as high as WR3.
Matchups We Hate:
Robert Woods & John Metchie III (WR, HOU)
The secondary receivers for Houston have struggled to produce during the second half of the year when they began to pound the rock more. That suits the approach against Baltimore, who has been better statistically against the pass. It's also a great way to take time off the clock and avoid becoming one-dimensional, making it the most likely outcome. Noah Brown entered last week banged up and then exited with a shoulder injury that will sideline him for the remainder of the playoffs. That leaves Woods and Metchie as the next two with Xavier Hutchinson behind them. However, all three are lower in the pecking order than at least one, if not both tight ends, so they're best avoided.
Other Matchups:
Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)
The starting tight end we referenced above is Schultz, who has thrived when they are missing pass-catchers. His lone reception went for a touchdown, but as we mentioned, the game script resulted in 22 passing attempts, so there wasn't much volume to go around. Despite their preference to have a balanced approach, they'll almost certainly need to air it out more than that. Brevin Jordan has long been a talented prospect who has yet to see a full-time role with a competent quarterback. His speed was on full display last week, taking a short pass 76 yards to the house. It's a decent matchup, making Schultz the more reliable choice as the TE6 on the week while Jordan is more of a DFS dart throw.
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU)
Singletary ran hard and found space for the occasional big play. He also made his way into the end zone and caught three passes, which was tied for second with Metchie behind Collins. The awesome usage was there again for Singletary, who ceded just one carry to Dameon Pierce until they pulled their starters in the fourth quarter. He figures to see 15-plus touches, including the goal line role, landing him in the RB7 spot.
Gus Edwards & Justice Hill (RB, BAL)
After losing Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens reverted to this duo. Edwards is a touchdown machine when they get inside the five-yard line while Hill plays almost every passing down. During the three contests that they played without Mitchell, Hill narrowly played more snaps, earned a 23% target share, and was in on 87% of the long-distance down snaps and 90% of the two-minute drill snaps. Edwards, on the other hand, saw almost three times as many carries and all of the attempts inside the five they combined for. The options at tailback are limited with only eight teams remaining, but they're both well outside the top five with Hill as a slight favorite, especially in full-PPR formats.
Odell Beckham Jr. & Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
Similar to the Texans, the secondary wideouts have been hard to nail down in terms of who is going to have a productive week and when, especially since Flowers and Likely emerged. The matchup is pretty good and there's likely to be plenty of points scored, but even Beckham Jr., who remains the preferred selection of the group that features him, Bateman, and Nelson Agholor, is around WR15, giving you plenty of other players to consider this weekend.
Injuries:
Mark Andrews (ankle)
Noah Brown (shoulder)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -9.5
Implied Total: Packers (20.5) vs. 49ers (30)
Pace: Packers (17th) vs. 49ers (32nd)
Packers Off. DVOA: 34.9% Pass (4th), -4.2% Rush (15th)
49ers Off. DVOA: 57.7% Pass (1st), 17.3% Rush (2nd)
Packers Def. DVOA: 17.8% Pass (26th), -3.3% Rush (26th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -9.4% Pass (4th), -10.1% Rush (15th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Packers (19th) vs. 49ers (3rd)
PFF Rush D Grade: Packers (18th) vs. 49ers (10th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Packers (5th) vs. 49ers (1st)
EPA/Play Allowed: Packers (23rd) vs. 49ers (10th)
WEATHER: This game has a chance of rain but no wind, so it shouldn't have much impact.
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
We'll get the privilege of seeing both No. 1 seeds in action on Saturday with a similar storyline in this one. A young quarterback on an ascending team against one of the NFL's most dominant franchises for the past two years. Aside from Week 18, when they rested starters, the 49ers only lost one time when their quartet of offensive weapons and top offensive lineman Trent Williams were all active, which was against Baltimore. Including that loss, they outscored their opponents 253 to 137 for a plus-126 point margin from Weeks 10 to 17. It illustrates why many view them as the best team in the league.
They're by far the most versatile team, but McCaffrey is arguably their most important player because of his dual-threat ability as a runner and receiver, driving defenses crazy. He's also fantasy gold, scoring touchdowns at will. Green Bay did well to slow down Dallas's rushing attack, but Tony Pollard has been struggling for weeks, so that's not an accurate depiction of how this one should play out, particularly if they let San Francisco get a lead. There's no way to have anyone other than McCaffrey at RB1 this week.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Elite weapons, brilliant play calling, and extraordinary poise set Purdy up as a threat for a spike week every time he steps on the field. He led the league in passer rating (113) and yards per attempt (9.6) while finishing second in completion percentage of quarterbacks with 10 or more starts (69.4%). It was an MVP-caliber campaign if not for the collapse against the Ravens. Fortunately, the Packers are not nearly as well equipped to give him issues. He's one of the more volatile signal-callers this week because this team can score on the ground or through the air regardless of who they're up against, but has a strong case to be inside the top five.
Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Samuel had an outstanding season, especially when it came to finding the end zone, which he did seven times as a receiver and five times as a runner. It's reminiscent of two years ago when he piled up eight rushing scores. He tends to score in bunches as evidenced by his four multi-touchdown games and five when he didn't find pay dirt. Given the over/under and the opportunity the matchup presents on the ground, betting on the former makes sense. His partner in crime is Aiyuk, who quietly went over 1,300 receiving yards while averaging 17.9 yards per reception, which is a career-high. He too was up and down with seven 100-plus yard receiving games but five with 50 or fewer. The concern for him is lining up across from Jaire Alexander, who did a great job against CeeDee Lamb last week, but is questionable to suit up. It drops him below Samuel, but both are worthy of a spot in the top five.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
With so many other weapons to choose from, Kittle has historically found himself as the odd man out unless one of the wideouts is sidelined. However, this season was different. He started slow during the first two weeks, but after that, had just five bust games compared to nine great outings, including seven inside the top five finishes at tight end with three at No. 1 overall on the week. Given his ceiling in an awesome matchup and a potential shootout, he slots in as the TE1.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Speaking of brilliant play calling. Matt LaFleur, a disciple of Kyle Shanahan, executed his game plan to perfection against the Cowboys. They embarrassed Dallas, bursting out to a 27-0 lead. Even Shanahan admitted he began preparing for the Packers midway through the second quarter.
Love posted almost identical numbers to Stroud, showcasing why they invested a first-round pick in him. Credit also goes to the offensive line that allowed zero sacks to Micah Parsons and Co. With so many weapons at his disposal against a defense that shuts down the run, Love is positioned to throw a lot and take chances downfield. He's the QB4 in what could be a barn burner.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones is as healthy as he's been all season and it shows. He's energetic, inspiring teammates, and punishing defenses. Aaron Rodgers may own the Bears, but Jones owns the Cowboys. He went over 100 rushing yards yet again while finding the end zone three times. There are far too many players involved in the offense to know exactly who you can count on each week, so outside of Love, it's Jones. The matchup isn't ideal, but Jones is an exceptional runner with above-average receiving skills. Plus, AJ Dillon is questionable to play. Jones is set up for another top-five performance.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Packers WRs
Typically, we'll list all the players in the heading and/or target the select few that are fantasy-relevant. However, in the case of this group, it's really difficult to decipher, especially when everyone is active. Last week, each of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson, and Bo Melton earned at least one target. The surprising part was Doubs blowing up with six grabs for 151 yards and a score combined with Reed failing to catch a pass. Wicks found the end zone as well, but Watson and Melton were held to one reception. Watson still doesn't look healthy and Melton is fifth in the pecking order. That leaves Doubs and Reed as the best bets with Wicks next up. Charvarius Ward is the best CB for San Francisco. He's likely to focus on Doubs, opening more opportunities for Reed, who still leads the way as the WR10 this week with Doubs not far behind and then Wicks and Watson in the WR15-WR20 range.
Luke Musgrave & Tucker Kraft (TE, GB)
These two talented tight ends are great for Love, but an issue for the receivers. Kraft played more snaps but they both earned three targets. Musgrave got free on broken coverage, allowing him to wait for the ball to arrive and still run into the end zone for 38 yards. He operated as the starter earlier in the year, so with another week to recover, he's the preferred option, but both are outside the top five.
Injuries:
AJ Dillon (thumb/neck)
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