RADIO
Happy New Year, RotoBallers! 2024 is here, and we all get a clean betting slate to start with. There are eight games on Monday's slate, including an early 3 p.m. game with the Knicks hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves.
In my final article of 2023, I closed the year out strong. The Knicks rallied in the first quarter to come back and cover. Despite Kawhi Leonard sitting out, the Clippers were able to cover the 6.5-point spread. My only loss was the first half over in Hawks-Kings, which I only missed by three points. I went 2-1 on the single-game picks and a Raptors-Thunder teaser at +110 cashed.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip off at 3:00 PM EST on Monday, January 1. Follow me on Twitter/X, @Jwiesel13. I hope it's a great year for all of us, and thank you as always for reading!
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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads
Indiana Pacers (+7.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (259.5 total)
We all know what happened the last time these two matched up in Milwaukee on December 13.
Giannis absolutely torched the Pacers for a franchise record 64 points. After the game, the Pacers would take the ball to give to rookie Oscar Tshiebwe, who scored his first NBA point. This led to heated discussion on the court, with Giannis running to the Pacers' locker room to try to retrieve the ball. Indiana gave Giannis a ball, but he is skeptical that it is the actual game ball from that night.
The recap is to point out that the two-time MVP should be extra motivated tonight. Individually, he has killed the Pacers this season. Giannis has scored 64, 37, and 54 in their three matchups. Milwaukee lost the first two matchups, but won the recent 64-ball controversy game.
I'm backing Giannis and the Bucks to come out with an edge in the first quarter. Milwaukee has won the first quarter in their last two matchups. On December 13, they held a 36-33 advantage. Six days earlier, they would lead 29-27 after the first. Indiana led 38-24 in their first matchup but also shot 8/16 from three in the opening 12 minutes.
Indiana struggles to defend the paint. The Pacers give up the most paint points per game and the second-most in the first quarter. In the last matchup, Giannis scored 10 points in the paint. For the season, he is averaging the most PITP in the NBA. He is right behind Anthony Davis for total points in the paint scored in first quarters this season. The Greek Freak should look to attack early and often against this vulnerable Pacers' defense.
Milwaukee also averages the most points in the first quarter at home. They are top-two in field goal percentage and top-six in three-point percentage.
On defense, the Bucks are a top-five unit in limiting first-quarter three-point makes, and opponents are only shooting 33.3 percent.
The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks First Quarter -2.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Detroit Pistons (+9.5) @ Houston Rockets (226.5 total)
The Pistons finally won a game! After losing 28 games in a row, Detroit snapped their streak by beating the Toronto Raptors 129-127 on Saturday night.
My angle here is on the Pistons in the first half. On Saturday night, Detroit led Toronto 52-44 after two quarters of play. In the last five games these teams have played, the Pistons have looked sharper in the opening two quarters.
Houston is averaging not even 0.5 more points at 57.6 compared to Detroit at 57.2. The Pistons have a 49.1 field goal percentage, which is better than Houston's 45.1 percent. Neither team is huge on three-point shooting, but Detroit is hitting 5.6 threes and Houston is hitting 4.8. The Rockets' 32.0 field goal percentage is almost five percent worse than Detroit's at 36.8 percent. Both are in the top 10 in first-half free-throw attempts in the last five games.
Detroit also has the edge in defense in this sample size. The Pistons have allowed 56.0 points, which is fewer than Houston's 57.8. Opponents are shooting 48.4 percent on field goals against Houston and only 45.8 percent against Detroit. Both teams do a good job of defending the three.
Now that the Pistons won, maybe this loosens them up. I'm not interested in picking them to cover or win the full game, but I'll ride the momentum in the first half of this one.
The Pick: Detroit Pistons First Half +5.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) @ Utah Jazz (245.5 total)
I'm taking the plucky Utah Jazz in this matchup with the points. According to Action Network, Utah is 11-3 ATS at home this season. Team Rankings have Utah at 8-3 ATS at home this season as underdogs.
The Jazz are a top-10 home-scoring team and in the top 10 in threes per game. Scoring will be important as they go up against a Mavericks team that is in the top seven in points per game.
Utah also gives up 115.3 points at home compared to 121.4 on the road. They are in the bottom 15 in opponent made threes per game, but in the top 12 in lowest opponent three-point percentage. In the Delta Center, opponents are shooting the sixth-lowest field goal percentage among all home arenas.
Dallas scores fewer points on the road and shoots a worse field goal percentage. In American Airlines Center, the Mavericks hit 38.4 percent of their three-pointers. When you take the show on the road, that percentage drops to 35.5 percent, which is significant. If the Jazz can defend the three well, they should be able to neutralize Luka and Co.
Utah is near the top of the league in second-chance points, and the Mavericks give up a lot of rebounds.
According to Fantasy Pros, the Mavericks give up the most points per game to power forwards. Luckily for the Jazz, they have an all-star in Lauri Markkanen, who is averaging 23.5 points at the position this season. Advantage Utah.
The pick: Jazz +4.5 (-110 DraftKings)
Favorite Teaser: DET +14 - POR +16 (+110 FD)
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