Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (12/15/23)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 12/15/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props

After some time away from this article, I am back with some of my favorite NBA bets for this Friday night slate! My homeboy Josh Wiesel has been on the NBA betting picks beat for the last few weeks and doing a great job I must say. The pressure is on for me to produce some winning picks tonight!

We have a few rematches from Wednesday tonight, as the NBA schedule has been a bit weird this week with some teams playing basically a home-and-home series against each other. The Pistons and Sixers meet up again, as do the Hawks and Raptors, AND the Grizzlies and Rockets, while the Lakers and Spurs also face off for the second time in three nights. These totals are also OUT OF CONTROL as six of the eight games tonight have a total of over 230 points, one game is even over 240 points, and the Wizards-Pacers game is sitting at 258.5 points!

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the first full NBA slate of the season that tips off at 7:00 PM EST on Friday, December 15. Follow me for more NBA bets and daily insights @ThunderDanDFS!

NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals

New York Knicks (+5) @ Phoenix Suns (232 total)

I mentioned in the opener that we have just huge totals across the board tonight (except that 212 in the Houston-Memphis game) but this one stands out to me as being too high. In fact, my model thinks it's anywhere from 7-10 points too high based on the pace of play, offensive efficiency, and defensive ability of both teams.

The Knicks have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, but they are missing their rim protector with Mitchell Robinson out of the lineup. And they just allowed the Utah Jazz (one of the worst teams in the league) to score 117 points in their last game. That certainly makes me nervous as Jusuf Nurkic can be a force in the paint and the Suns are going to have their big three of Durant-Beal-Booker healthy again tonight for just the second time this season.

But the pace of play here really stands out. Phoenix has some major firepower offensively, but they are not looking to push the tempo at all. Like the Knicks, the Suns prefer to play more half-court offense and this game projects to have the slowest tempo of any on the slate tonight at just 95 possessions.

The Suns were also just held in check by the "other New York team" as the Nets upset them on Wednesday night 116-112. If Brooklyn can slow down the Suns and limit them to 112 points, then I think the Knicks certainly stand a chance to do it, too. My projection is probably too low, given the lack of Mitchell Robinson and Phoenix also being at full strength, but I think the Knicks can hang with the Suns here and keep this one in the 225-230 range for our under to hit.

The pick: UNDER 232  total points (-110 DraftKings)

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NBA Betting Picks: ML and Spreads

Houston Rockets (-3.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (212 total)

The Rockets have been one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread this season at 14-5-2. They continue to play well and have been one of the bigger surprises in the Western Conference this season.

On Wednesday night, they handled Memphis with relative ease, 117-104, and I am not sure why they won't do the same tonight. Memphis has their best scorer, Desmond Bane, marked as questionable again for this matchup, and still are waiting for their best player Ja Morant to return from his suspension.

This spread should really be closer to 6-7 points, I am not all that worried about the change of venue. Houston is .500 ATS on the road, while the Grizzlies have been terrible at home this year, going just 3-8 ATS. This feels like one of the easier plays on the board, and there aren't that many easy ones tonight, so I am betting it.

The Pick: Rockets -3.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Orlando Magic (+6) @ Boston Celtics (224.5 total)

My pal Adam Koffler, who writes for us here at RotoBaller and has been covering the Magic all season as a beat writer, REALLY wants this win for his team. The Magic have been one of the best stories in the league so far this year and you should definitely read this piece he published yesterday about the keys to their turnaround.

Orlando beat up on this Boston team in their first matchup (in Orlando), handing the Celtics a 113-96 defeat. The question is -- can they do it in Boston this time?

I have this game projected around 5 points for the Celtics, but I do think the Magic have a lot of momentum coming into this game and are going to be hungry to prove they belong with the other top-tier teams in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are playing their second game in as many nights and hopefully, my Cavaliers have drained their energy a bit, despite the Celtics beating them both Tuesday and Thursday night (womp womp).

My angle here is a first-half spread. I think Orlando comes out swinging early and can lead or be within a possession at halftime. Maybe they pull off the upset, but in case the Celtics pull away in the second half, I am just going to keep my wager on the first-half outcome.

The Pick: Magic +3.5 FIRST HALF SPREAD (-108 DraftKings)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite ML Parlay: HOU + IND + NOP (+182 DK)

Favorite Teaser (buying 5 points) NYK +10, ORL +11 = (+100 FD)

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

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