Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (11/22/23)

November 22, 2023

Josh Wiesel's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 11/22/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props

After a relatively small five-game slate yesterday, the NBA has given us a loaded Wednesday night slate. There are 14 games and 28 teams in action. The only teams that don't play tonight are the New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons.

Though there are many games, we'll be sticking to the normal game plan here. I'll be finding three plays in three different games that I like and giving some analysis to support the claim.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for games that tip off at 7:00 PM EST on Wednesday, November 22nd. Follow me on Twitter, @Jwiesel13. Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML

Milwaukee Bucks (+6) @ Boston Celtics (234.5 total)

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a tear recently.

The Greek Freak has been incredible, and the Milwaukee Bucks have won five straight games. In this five-game stretch, the Bucks are first in points (130.0), first in field goal percentage (53.0%), first in threes (17.0), and fourth in three-point percentage (41.5%). Damian Lillard hasn't been shooting it great lately but is averaging 25.0 points, 8.4 assists, and 9.2 free throw attempts during this win streak. Six different players on the Bucks are averaging at least 12.8 points. Milwaukee has had the best offensive rating in the NBA by a nice margin over the last five games.

The Celtics come into this game off of a wild overtime loss to the Charlotte Hornets. Derrick White did not play in that game, and Boston is significantly better when its top five players play. It is unclear if White will suit up tomorrow, but the line indicates he will.

Regardless, I'm taking the points with Milwaukee. Boston is 4-1 in their last five, but their offensive and defensive ratings have slipped a bit. The Bucks get a lot of flak for their defense. In this five-game sample, Milwaukee has a 113.4 defensive rating, which is in the top ten in the NBA. Boston is a little better at 111.1. The Celtics have held opponents to 102.8 points in TD Garden this season, but as noted before, Milwaukee is on an offensive tear.

There's just no way I want to bet against Giannis right now.

The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +6  (-110 DraftKings)

Sacramento Kings (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans (237 total)

I absolutely love this Pelicans team. New Orleans just smashed the Kings by 36 on Monday in Nola. Sacramento was a small 1.5-point favorite in that game, and books have this game at a similar line.

The Pelicans have been playing really good ball for a week now. They have won three of four games. Their one loss was a one-point loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves, in which they were outscored 36-25 in the fourth quarter. Zion Williamson also did not play in that game. This game marks the end of the Pelicans' six-game homestand.

In this four-game window, New Orleans is holding opponents to 108.5 points. This is much better than the 114.0 points they have been allowing this season. Opponents are only shooting 45.6 percent of defended field goals in the last four games, the eighth-lowest percentage. In the Pelicans win over the Kings Monday, Sacramento only shot 37.6 percent of defended field goals. A physical New Orleans team will need to try to repeat that defensive game plan tonight.

Willie Green's team is in the top three in offensive and defensive rating in the last four games.

New Orleans dominated on the boards and in the paint Monday night. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson had big games. Jose Alvarado played his first game this season. The vibes are high in New Orleans.

The pick: Pelicans +2 (-110 FanDuel)

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NBA Betting Picks: Game Totals

 Memphis Grizzlies (+5.5) @ Houston Rockets  (213 total)

This game would normally be an easy under for me, but I'm going the opposite way. Yes, these are two bottom-six scoring teams in the league. Memphis shoots a bad field-goal percentage. Houston is better and right around league average.

The good is that these are both decent three-point shooting teams. Memphis is in the top ten in three-pointers per game; Houston is around 15th, which is very respectable. Houston has become a much better three-point shooting team as the season has gone on. In October, the Rockets went 0-3 and hit 9.7 threes per game. November has seen them go 6-3 and hit 13.3 threes per game. The Grizzlies have been hitting 14.2 threes per game in November.

Houston has had the best defense this month in terms of opponent points per game. They have been allowing 104.0 points. Memphis is allowing 114.2 points, which is around 15th. Even if these teams just give up their averages in this game, it still goes over. Both teams have also allowed a lot of free throws per game.

It's a rare over for me, but the total feels a little too low here.

The Pick: Over 213  (-110 DraftKings)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Favorite Teaser: Buying 6 points: MIL +12 - NOP +8.5 - GSW +9 (+130 FD)

Favorite ML parlay: CHA + OKC (+111 DK)

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