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Well, some things in Week 8 went exactly as planned - A.J. Brown crushed the Commanders once again, Gus Edwards and the Ravens ran roughshod over the Cardinals, and the Cowboys defense racked up fantasy points. But other outcomes were far from predictable - like when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lost by two scores to a struggling Denver team and a half-dozen quarterbacks were forced to leave their games due to injury. We press on to Week 9 with each week presenting a new challenge ahead of us.
This year, I started a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday afternoon (once all the stats and rankings from Monday night's game are processed). This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, November 5. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
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Week 9 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. We are back to a thinner main slate once again with 4 "island games" as we have the Chiefs-Dolphins in Germany this week in addition to Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night primetime games. We also have four teams on bye in Week 9 (Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, and San Francisco).
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 9: Main Slate Only
- Ravens - 24.5
- Saints - 24.5
- Eagles - 24.5
- Colts - 23.75
- Browns - 23
Gus Edwards runs it in for his second touchdown of the day and the Ravens take a 14 point lead over the Cardinals 😤 pic.twitter.com/PNYH6TEenl
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) October 29, 2023
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through 8 Games: Points Per Game
- Cowboys - 28.1
- Eagles - 28.0
- Colts - 26.6
- Ravens - 25.3
- Seahawks - 24.0
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through 8 Games: Points Allowed Per Game (Avoid)
- Ravens - 15.1
- Cowboys - 17.1
- Texans - 18.3
- Bucs - 18.3
- Saints - 19.3
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through 8 Games
- Eagles - 387.4
- Colts - 362.4
- Rams - 354.5
- Vikings - 353.8
- Ravens - 350.8
AJ Brown isn't human. Also 12 yards away from having his 6th consecutive game over 100 yards 🤯🤯🤯pic.twitter.com/3Vr4J8xWWF
— Ryan Miner (@RyanMiner_FFB) October 29, 2023
Struggling Defenses: Most Total Yards Allowed Through 8 Games
- Commanders - 374.1
- Colts - 371.3
- Cardinals - 355.8
- Bucs - 354.8
- Bears - 341.0
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this is my community.. this is my family.. without them this would not happen @WinDailySports @RotoBaller@BaronZito973 @mb_guruDFS #OTC there are others and you know who you are and I love you all for the help! pic.twitter.com/psRCDbCqqL
— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023
Week 9 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Texans (5) vs. Bucs (15)
- Ravens (11) vs. Seahawks (19)
- Cowboys (13) @ Eagles (23)
- Vikings (12) @ Falcons (28)
- Rams (15) vs. Packers (27)
CJ Stroud with the tightest of tight window throws pic.twitter.com/e0JquaP0EO
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) October 30, 2023
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Colts (4) @ Panthers (32)
- Rams (6) @ Packers (24)
- Browns (17) vs. Cardinals (31)
- Giants (32) @ Raiders (29)
- Eagles (3) @ Commanders (14)
hey Jonathan Taylor! pic.twitter.com/Nt29TXOwYp
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 22, 2023
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Commanders (Jones), Bears (Carr), Eagles (Prescott), Cardinals (Watson/Walker), Rams (Love)
RB - Panthers (Taylor/Moss), Cardinals (Hunt/Ford), Raiders (Barkley), Colts (Hubbard), Packers (Henderson/Freeman)
WR - Eagles (Lamb), Commanders (Smith-Schuster), Vikings (London), Seahawks (Flowers), Bucs (Collins)
TE - Rams (Musgrave), Texans (Otton), Colts (Hurst), Bears (Hill), Cowboys (Goedert)
DEF - Giants (LV), Patriots (WAS), Bears (NO), Browns (ARI), Commanders (NE)
#Cowboys CeeDee Lamb Rec 158 yards 12 Yards Rushing and 2 TDs vs The #Rams pic.twitter.com/8qoaF7tYMv
— Law Nation Sports (@LawsNation) October 30, 2023
Week 9 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
Every week pricing gets TIGHTER and we feel the squeeze. This makes punt plays more appealing and the idea of a cheap stack incredibly appealing as we try to fit the high-priced smash plays around it. It's pretty ugly this week, I am going to pare it down from five pairs to just three.
- Carr - Shaheed (10.1k) - Carr has three straight games of 20+ DK points and tossed one of those to Shaheed last week who had 3 catches for 153 yards!
- Howell - Dotson (10.8k) - We all left Dotson for dead, but he had his best game of the season last week catching 8-108 and a score. If Curtis Samuel misses this game, we could continue to see more Dotson.
- Minshew - Downs (10.4k) - The Colts should lean on their run game this week, but Downs continues to be cheap and has emerged as Minshew's favorite receiver.
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: Justin Fields is still out, Tyson Bagent will start this week. Josh Dobbs was just traded to the Vikings and should start for them this week after Kirk Cousins was lost for the year. Matthew Stafford is very much questionable this week with a ligament sprain in his thumb.
Daniel Jones should return for the Giants, while Deshaun Watson is still questionable for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield is playing through a knee injury but plans to play this week.
Desmond Ridder was replaced by Taylor Heinecke in Atlanta due to injury, but there's no word on who will start for the Falcons yet this week.
RB: I am sure someone will pop up on an injury report tomorrow, but the RB position is fairly injury-free this week!
WR: Kendall Bourne is done for the season for the Patriots, who steps up into the WR1 slot is anyone's guess but the opportunity is there for JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas, especially after DeVante Parker left last week's game with a concussion.
Drake London is questionable with a groin injury while Robert Woods is likely to miss again for the Texans this week.
TE: Darren Waller left last week's game with a hamstring injury and left my cash game lineup wanting for more. His status for this week is unknown, but hammy injuries can linger.
Week 9 Interesting Stats
- The Commanders were the most pass-heavy team last week, throwing the ball on 76% of their plays for a 9.7% pass rate over expectation. Sam Howell had a big day against the Eagles and had them in position for an upset but the Washington defense couldn't stop the Birds late. Howell threw for nearly 400 yards last week and it remains to be seen if Washington will continue to air it out this week against New England as their run game has been relatively ineffective for much of the season.
- On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Giants ran the ball 69% of the time last week. They leaned on their franchise running back Saquon Barkley last week against the Jets, feeding him 39 touches in an overtime loss. Daniel Jones could return this week, but Barkley has been this entire offense for much of the year. He does get a plus matchup against the Raiders this week.
- CeeDee Lamb had a massive 14 targets last week, accounting for a 41% target share. The Dallas passing game is in a great spot against the Eagles this week and I would expect them to throw a lot against a pass-funnel defense that has been giving up yards in huge chunks to opponents.
- Alvin Kamara continues to be the main cog of the Saints' offense, even with Taysom Hill working in as a short-yardage back. Kamara had another 20+ touch game in their win last week, scoring two touchdowns. He's touched the ball 20+ times in every game he's played in this season and the Bears have been bad against pass-catching backs this year. In summary, Kamara is very much deserving of the highest salary on DraftKings this week ($8,100)
- As long as Deshaun Watson is on the sideline, there's not much hope for the Cleveland passing game. P.J. Walker has the highest percentage of bad throws (29%) of any QB with at least 75 attempts this season.
Alright, that's it for my Week 9 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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