Week 8 Fantasy Football Matchups We Love: The Fantasy Matchmaker

Welcome back to the Week 8 Fantasy Matchmaker article looking at Week 8 matchups we love! This is my weekly series for RotoBaller where I look at the matchup strength for pretty much every viable fantasy football player across the fantasy skill positions. Each week I have had the honor of writing this series and I hope it has helped secure some fantasy wins.

The halfway point of the 2023 NFL season is rapidly approaching. In what seems like a blink of an eye, we are already to Week 8. It seems like only yesterday we were overreacting to Week 1 results and wondering out loud if Puka Nacua’s early-season success was sustainable (it was and is). And now we move from six teams on bye to a magical mid-season bye-less week.

In this article, I will present my updated rankings for matchup strengths for the QB, WR, RB, and TE positions based on my adjusted fantasy points allowed process.

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My Methodology

The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and strength of opponent is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly, but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 8 includes what each team has given up in Weeks 1-7 (including the average). I also incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to what their opponents have averaged at each fantasy skill position.

This is also called Points Over Average (POA). For example, when comparing raw fantasy points allowed per game and opponent-adjusted fantasy points allowed per game, one of the biggest discrepancies is the Bills versus WRs. The Bills are ranked 11^th versus WRs in raw fantasy PPG allowed (11^th-toughest matchup for fantasy WRs). But they are ranked 24^th (ninth-easiest matchup) when adjusting for opponents faced. And over the last three games they have been the second-easiest matchup (31^st). The Bills allowed the Jacksonville WR group to score 21.3 points more than their season average (POA allowed of +21.3). They allowed the Patriots’ WRs to score 10.3 points more than their season average. This is due in part to what they allowed to the Jaguars’ WRs in Week 5 and Patriots’ WRs in Week 7.

So while they did not give up a huge amount of raw fantasy points to the Patriots, that POA allowed of +10.3 is factored into adjusted fantasy points allowed rank. Now, in my process, the answer lies somewhere in the middle, with the Bills currently ranked 21^st versus fantasy WRs.

RotoBaller generates positional and overall player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week, which will be included when looking at matchups for each positional group. The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings so you can see the matchup strength for the must-starts as well as for borderline starters, flex options, and desperation dart throws. I encourage you to check out RotoBaller’s Week 8 ranks, available here.

I will conclude the article by looking back at my takes from last week, both the matchups I loved and matchups I avoided, to point the microscope at myself and see how I did. I started the season out a little bumpy but have been above a 50% hit rate the last few weeks. I dipped back below 50% for Week 7 in what was not my best week. I will be better this week.

 

Week 8 Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups

The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 8. The table includes the QB, the Week 8 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the RotoBaller positional rankings.

The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).

 

Week 8: QB Matchups We Love

Dak Prescott (QB9)
Opponent: LAR
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 25^th

This is a bit of a “stars aligning” scenario for Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are at home coming off of a bye, and they face a Rams team that is much tougher versus the run (10^th-toughest matchup for RBs) than they have been versus QBs. The Rams haven’t exactly been lit up by QBs through the air lately, having allowed zero passing TDs in the last two games. But that was against Joshua Dobbs and Kenny Pickett. And they have been giving up fantasy points to QBs on the ground. Prescott is coming off a game in which he rushed seven times for 40 yards and a TD, and he should be able to cushion his fantasy floor with some rushing output. This game has a healthy 45.5 point over/under with an implied total of 26 points for the Cowboys. I think RotoBaller has this one correct with Prescott at QB9. He may not exceed that, but it’s a good matchup.

Woah, was that rookie Dak Prescott?pic.twitter.com/6rmsDtCaR6

— Michael Bier (@MichaelJBier) October 17, 2023

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB30)
Opponent: @DET
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 23^rd

I was all set to include Jimmy Garoppolo in this section a few weeks ago, but he ended up being ruled out, so I had to pivot. Let’s be clear, I am not some Garoppolo hype machine, but he has an excellent matchup against the 23^rd-ranked Lions and QB30 is too low. The Lions have allowed two or more passing TDs in four of seven games. They have allowed three passing TDs in two of the last three games. Like the Rams, the Lions are much stiffer against the run, ranking as the toughest matchup for RBs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. One potential glitch in this matrix is the rumors of a Davante Adams trade with the NFL trade deadline looming next week on Halloween. It is unlikely Adams would be traded before the Week 8 game, but if the Raiders are serious about trading him and have potential suitors it is always possible that they limit his action. But I am proceeding assuming he will be a full go, and alongside Jakobi Meyers and the ascending rookie TE Michael Mayer, Garoppolo has excellent weapons in place for a game that could go the way of a shoot-out.

 

Week 8: Not Great, Bob – QB Matchups to Avoid

Russell Wilson (QB15)
Opponent: KC
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 5^th

The Broncos are another team in flux, with trade rumors swirling around both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. That potential distraction helps nothing as the Broncos take on the Chiefs, ranked as the fifth-toughest matchup for fantasy QBs. And there is recent history pointing at a tough day for Wilson. The Chiefs and Broncos matched up in Kansas City only two weeks ago. The Broncos managed only eight points, and Wilson threw two interceptions without surpassing 100 passing yards. This game is in Denver, but that won’t be enough to right the Russell Wilson ship, which has been veering off course ever since he was traded to the Broncos. The Chiefs have allowed 250 or more passing yards three times this season, to Jared Goff (in Detroit), Kirk Cousins, and Justin Herbert. The rest of their QB opponents have been under 250 yards, with two being held under 100. This is another game with a healthy over/under above 45 total points, but with the Broncos' implied total being under 20 points, Wilson won’t be having a fantasy day worth starting.

Matthew Stafford (QB16)
Opponent: @DAL
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 8^th

Matthew Stafford draws the short end of the stick by being the QB who must go into Dallas and face this defense coming off a bye. The Cowboys were torched by Brock Purdy in Week 5 for 252 passing yards and four TDs. Outside of that, no QB has surpassed 227 passing yards or two passing TDs against this defense. On the season, they are allowing 192.5 passing yards per game, which is the second lowest (behind the Browns) and one of only four teams holding QBs under 200 yards per game. Their season-long POA allowed is -1.8 and if you take out the 49er game, that decreases to -5.6 PPG below their QB opponents’ PPG average. I realize it can be difficult to fade a QB throwing to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but I am avoiding this matchup and finding a different QB2 or streamer in a week with no teams on bye.

 

Week 8 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups

The following WR table shows the top 80 WRs for Week 8 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.

 

Week 8: WR Matchups We Love

Drake London (WR28)
Opponent: @TEN
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 26^th

Drake London has quietly been having a solid season. The residual effects of his one-target, zero-catch goose egg in Week 1 and the continued bashing of Arthur Smith have distracted what he has done since. The Falcons are right around league average in pass attempts per game, a huge improvement from a historically low pass rate in 2022. Atlanta’s WR target share is the lowest in the NFL by far at 40.2%, but London dominates those WR targets. Ignoring Week 1, London has averaged 8.2 targets per game, has a target share in the upper-20% range, and is the WR24 in PPG (half-PPR). And that is with only two receiving TDs. In his last three games, London is averaging over nine targets per game. Season-long, London is a buy-low as the Falcons have one of the friendliest remaining schedules for WRs. In Week 8, the Falcons travel to Tennessee, and London gets to run routes against the 26^th-ranked Titans. The Titans have been slightly improved versus WRs lately, but their season-long POA allowed to WRs is +4.9. London is a borderline must-start in Week 8.

Since this tweet:
Drake London-- 32/382/2, 1.79 YPRR, 483 air yards (30% market share), PPR WR16, 22 years old
Zay Flowers-- 30/364/1, 1.78 YPRR, 437 air yards (29%ms), PPR WR27, 23 years old

Actually worked out fine for Flowers, though, I was concerned he'd regress more. https://t.co/uNLJBZSphy

— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) October 24, 2023

George Pickens (WR26)
Opponent: JAX
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 22^nd

George Pickens faces the 22^nd-ranked Jaguars in Week 8 as the Steelers’ WR1. Yes, Diontae Johnson returned from injury in Week 7, his first game since Week 1. Pickens out-targeted Johnson in Week 1, and he did again in Week 7. Similar to Drake London, Pickens has dominated his team’s WR target share and sits as a WR2 (WR19 overall) without much reliance on TDs. Both are strong candidates for positive TD regression in the second half of the season. Pickens has exceeded a 25% target share in five of six games and has hit the elite 30% target share three times, including Week 7 with Johnson back in the lineup. Pickens had 100-yard days against the Ravens and Rams, the seventh and third-toughest WR matchups, respectively.

The Jaguars have a season-long WR POA allowed of +3.9, and that number shoots up to +9 over the last three games (fourth-most). Pickens could threaten the Top 12 in Week 8 if he can find the end zone.

George Pickens is on pace for 1,417 receiving yards this seasonpic.twitter.com/eV6ZzHx5XW

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) October 25, 2023

 

Week 8: Not Great, Bob – WR Matchups to Avoid

DeAndre Hopkins (WR41)
Opponent: ATL
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 6^th

DeAndre Hopkins will likely be shadowed by Falcons’ CB A.J. Terrell when he lines up against the sixth-ranked Falcons. Hopkins has only one game this season with more than 65 receiving yards and will likely be seeing targets from rookie Will Levis in Week 8. That combined with the Falcons’ season-long WR POA allowed of -9.8 has me steering well clear of this matchup for Hopkins.

Marquise Brown (WR32)
Opponent: BAL
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 7^th

Marquise Brown faces the seventh-ranked Ravens in Week 8, a game that could get out of hand early in the Arizona desert. The Ravens did allow a positive WR POA over the first three games of 2023, but if you look at the last five games, their WR POA allowed is -5.4 and only one WR has scored. Brown has a negative matchup with the Ravens’ CBs (according to Fantasy Points) and is a WR to avoid this week if possible.

 

Week 8 Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups

The following RB table shows the top 50 RBs for Week 8 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.

I have also added a column to this chart. A few weeks ago, I introduced my ranking for RB points from receiving output only (PFR). The PFR ranks are included next to the overall RB ranks. What we are looking for with that side-by-side inclusion are discrepancies that may change the outlook of a matchup (depending on the RB).

There are more discrepancies between the two RB ranks than there were through five weeks.

Currently, the notable differences include the following:

• The Panthers rank 21 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 10^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. This is the largest discrepancy and may at first seem like a reason to downgrade the Texans RB more likely to see targets (Singletary). But the Panthers rank as the second-easiest matchup for RBs overall.
• The Giants are 16 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking as the toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. I am not downgrading Hall at all due to this.
• The Steelers are 13 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Travis Etienne Jr. Like with Breece Hall, I am not fading Etienne Jr. based on the Steelers being a tough matchup for pass-catching RBs.
• The Colts are 12 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 15th  in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Alvin Kamara. See Breece Hall and Travis Etienne Jr.
• The Jaguars are 14 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. The Jaguars rank 12th versus RB overall but are a softer matchup for pass-catching RBs. Impacted players: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Warren gets a slight bump here.
• The Eagles enter Week 8 as the second-toughest matchup for RBs overall, but hey rank 17 spots worse (19th) versus RB PFR. Impacted players: Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. Robinson Jr. gets a slight bump here as he has been more involved in the pass game than expected this season.
• The Buccaneers are 18 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 27^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. The Buccaneers rank 9th versus RBs overall but can be beaten by RBs through the air. Impacted players: James Cook and Latavius Murray. Cook gets a bump here as he should be able to take advantage and do some damage through the air while likely being somewhat limited on the ground.

Here is the chart showing these rank differences more clearly:

Now onto Week 7 RB matchups I love.

 

Week 8: RB Matchups We Love

Chuba Hubbard (RB26)
Opponent: HOU
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 26^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 25^th

Chuba Hubbard faces the fantasy-friendly Texans in Week 8, a defense that ranks in the bottom ten in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs (overall and PFR). The Texans RB POA allowed is +1.8 on the season. It is still not known if Miles Sanders will return from his shoulder injury this week, but Hubbard has been the better RB, especially lately. Hubbard has seen 42 rush attempts over the last three games, including 88 yards and a TD on 19 carries in Week 6. Miles Sanders didn’t play that game, and the talk coming from Head Coach Frank Reich is vague. During the bye week, Reich turned over play-calling duties to Offensive Coordinator Thomas Brown, so there is concern about how the RB group will be utilized moving forward. But Hubbard provides a spark that Sanders hasn’t. Hubbard has been better running between the tackles and has shown some promise in the passing game, with at least two targets in five of six games.

Devin Singletary (RB34)
Opponent: @CAR
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 31^st
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 10^th   

Staying in the same, Devin Singletary’s matchup against the 31^st-ranked Panthers is an easy one to love. The Panthers have allowed multiple rushing TDs in five of six games this year and their 134.3 rushing yards per game allowed and 5.3 yards per carry allowed are both second-highest behind the Broncos. This has led to an RB POA allowed of +6.3 on the season.

You might wonder why I’m talking about Singletary here instead of Dameon Pierce who is ranked higher and has the same matchup. Leading into their Week 7 bye, the Texans’ RB utilization was shifting. Pierce has been the lead back over the first five games, comfortably leading Singletary in snap share and opportunity share. But in Week 6:

• Dameon Pierce
  • Snap share: 33%
  • Opportunity Share: 25%
  • Routes run: 7
• Devin Singletary
  • Snap share: 55.7%
  • Opportunity share: 27%
  • Routes run: 18

Singletary was also more effective in Week 6 (12 rushes for 58 yards) than Pierce (13 rushes for 34 yards). At a minimum, this looks to be a split backfield, but there is a chance that Singletary, who is the better pass catcher and pass blocker, will take over the lead role. Either way, he’s a good play in this matchup.

Way too many waiver wire articles don’t have Devin Singletary high or even in them. That’s a mistake. https://t.co/QdFhbxqFJ3

— Brian Drake (@DrakeFantasy) October 24, 2023

 

Week 8: Not Great Bob, RB Matchups to Avoid

Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB27)
Opponent: @DAL
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 7^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 14^th

Darrell Henderson Jr. seemed to answer the “Which non-Kyren Rams RB is the right one” question last week. He found the endzone and finished as the RB15. But if you look closer, the TD masked a less efficient day than Royce Freeman. Henderson Jr. is an above-average pass blocker and he knows the Rams’ system. He will stay involved. He played more snaps and ran more routes than Freeman. But this was and likely remains a messy, split backfield until Kyren Williams returns. And in a tough matchup against the seventh-ranked Cowboys, it’s a backfield I’m avoiding altogether.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB25)
Opponent: @MIA
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 13^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 4^th

The Dolphins are not the worst matchup for RBs overall. Their RB POA allowed is +0.5, and they’ve allowed five rushing TDs on the season. The reason I’m avoiding this matchup is two-fold. In the last three games, Miami’s RB POA allowed is -3.4 and their POA allowed to RB PFR is -5.2. RBs have averaged only 5.3 catches for 32.7 yards per game (with zero receiving TDs). Stevenson has not reached 60 rushing yards in any game this season. He has averaged 4.3 targets per game and has relied on receiving for a relatively high amount of his fantasy points. This is a matchup I’m avoiding.

 

Week 8 Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups

The following TE table shows the top 30 TEs for Week 8 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.

 

Week 8: TE Matchups We Love

Jake Ferguson (TE12)
Opponent: LAR
Opponent Rank vs. TE: 27^th

The Rams are tough on WRs and RBs. But they’ve been a good QB matchup. That is partly explained by them being the sixth-easiest matchup for fantasy TEs. Jake Ferguson cooled off a bit after averaging over six targets per game in Weeks 1-4. In Week 5 and 6 Ferguson caught a total of four balls for 43 yards. Coming out of their bye with two weeks to plan for the Rams, I think the Cowboys know that the TE position is a weak point in an otherwise stout defense, and Ferguson has a breakout game in Week 8.

#Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has been Top 10 at his position in his first year as a starter in Dallas:

Receiving Ratings
• Overall: 56 (7th) — Evan Engram No. 6
• Open: 63 (6th) — George Kittle No. 5
• YAC: 54 (2nd) — George Kittle No. 1

Dalton Schultz was the 5th overall tight… pic.twitter.com/trp90p8HEw

— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) October 25, 2023

 

Week 8: Not Great Bob, TE Matchups to Avoid

Trey McBride (TE18)
Opponent: BAL
Opponent Rank vs. TE: 1^st

Trey McBride has been gaining some steam as of late with the Cardinals slowly making him more of an offensive focal point. In Week 7, McBride played just as many snaps as Zach Ertz, ran one less route, and earned two more targets. It is a promising trend for last year’s highest-drafted TE (NFL Draft), but this is not the week to start him. The Ravens check in as the toughest TE matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed. Against the Ravens, TEs have averaged 3.9 catches for 28.7 yards per game, and no TE has scored. Their TE POA allowed is -2.6, which is significant, as a TE scoring 2.6 fewer points than their average is a much bigger hit than with other positions. McBride is a stash right now, but this matchup should be avoided.

I will finish with my “Postmortems,” looking back across each position at my Week 6 loves and “not great, Bobs” to see how I did.

 

Last Week's Postmortems

I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a postmortem of the previous week’s players whose fantasy matchups I loved and those whom I advised to avoid. I will subjectively judge myself based on the results of the previous week, with my take either being a “HIT” or a “MISS,” or in some cases a “PUSH” (or N/A for a player who was ruled out due to injury after the article published).

Week 7 QB Matchups I Loved

Geno Smith

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: QB10
• Week 7 Matchup: ARI (Rank: 31^st)
• Week 7 Finish: QB17 (14.8 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Jordan Love

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: QB15
• Week 7 Matchup: DEN (Rank: 30^th)
• Week 7 Finish: QB12 (16.3 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 7 QB Matchups I Avoided

Desmond Ridder

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: QB18
• Week 7 Matchup: TB (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 7 Finish: QB19 (13.8 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Kirk Cousins

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: QB11
• Week 7 Matchup: SF (Rank: 4^th)
• Week 7 Finish: QB6 (22.0 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 7 QB Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

Week 7 WR Matchups I Loved

Tutu Atwell

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: WR57
• Week 7 Matchup: PIT (Rank: 30^th)
• Week 7 Finish: WR21 (9.1 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Wan’Dale Robinson

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: WR45
• Week 7 Matchup: WAS (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 7 Finish: WR66 (2.2 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 7 WR Matchups I Avoided

Michael Pittman Jr.

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: WR26
• Week 7 Matchup: CLE (Rank: 1^st)
• Week 7 Finish: WR7 (14.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Mike Evans

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: WR21
• Week 7 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 3^rd)
• Week 7 Finish: WR8 (14.2 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 7 WR Hit Rate: 25% (1-3)

Week 7 RB Matchups I Loved

Jerome Ford

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: RB13
• Week 7 Matchup: IND (Rank: 25^th)
• Week 7 Finish: RB10 (15.4 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Javonte Williams

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: RB19
• Week 7 Matchup: GB (Rank: 31^st)
• Week 7 Finish: RB19 (9.6 points)
• Verdict: PUSH

Week 7 RB Matchups I Avoided

Rachaad White

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: RB25
• Week 7 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 2^nd)
• Week 7 Finish: RB18 (9.9 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Najee Harris

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: RB30
• Week 7 Matchup: LAR (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 7 Finish: RB13 (12.8 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 7 RB Hit Rate: 33% (1-2)

Week 7 TE Matchups I Loved

Luke Musgrave

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: TE13
• Week 7 Matchup: DEN (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 7 Finish: TE19 (3.0 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 7 TE Matchups I Avoided

Hunter Henry

• Week 7 RotoBaller Rank: TE18
• Week 7 Matchup: BUF (Rank: 10^th)
• Week 7 Finish: TE22 (2.7 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 7 TE Hit Rate: 50% (1-1)

Week 7 Total Hit Rate: 38.5% (5-8)

 

This article series does not include Defense/Special Teams (DST) or kickers. RotoBaller provides rankings and start/sit advice for DST and kickers in two separate weekly articles:

Week 8 Defense (DEF) Streamers, Starters and Rankings

Week 8 Kicker Streamers and Starts

 

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

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