Week 7 Fantasy Football Matchups We Love: The Fantasy Matchmaker

Welcome to Week 7 of my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker. In this series, I am looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups I love based on their opponent’s strength (or weakness) versus that position.

The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and strength of opponent is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly, but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 7 includes what each team has given up in Weeks 1-6 (including the average). I also incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to what their opponents have averaged at each position. This is also called Points Over Average (POA).

RotoBaller generates positional and overall player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week, which will be included when looking at matchups for each positional group. The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings so you can see the matchup strength for the must-starts as well as for borderline starters, flex options, and desperation dart throws. I encourage you to check out Scott Engel’s Week 7 ranks, available here. We have arrived at our first official “Bye-Nado” week with six teams on bye. With the player pool limited based on that and mounting injuries, I will attempt to provide some deeper player targets for Week 7.

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Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups

The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 7. The table includes the QB, the Week 7 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the RotoBaller positional rankings.

The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).

 

Week 7: QB Matchups We Love

Geno Smith (QB10)
Opponent: ARI
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 31^st

With six teams on bye, I advise you to start Smith, who is already ranked as the QB10 for Week 7 and is close to Captain Obvious land. But matchups don’t get much better than the Cardinals. The Cardinals have the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, so Smith should have ample time to throw. And with his completion rate in the high 60% range again this year, a lack of pressure should lead to a highly efficient and effective day for Smith (and his WRs). The Cardinals have allowed a positive POA to five of the six QBs they’ve faced, and their season-long POA to QBs is +5.8 per game. I’m starting Smith over multiple QBs ranked ahead of him, including Sam Howell, Matthew Stafford, and Brock Purdy.

Jordan Love (QB15)
Opponent: @DEN
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 30^th

Jordan Love is a good streaming option in one-QB leagues and a solid QB2 in Superflex formats. Love has an ideal matchup with the 30th-ranked Broncos. Denver has allowed 285.8 passing yards (third-highest) and over two TD passes per game. QBs facing this defense have finished in the top 10 and/or more than 20 fantasy points in four of six games.

Love has struggled since throwing three TDs in both of the first two games. But his schedule got tougher in Weeks 3-5 with games against the Saints (sixth), Lions (19^th), and the surprisingly solid Raiders (11^th). Love should rejoin the TD train in the much softer matchup in Denver.

 

Week 7: Not Great, Bob – QB Matchups to Avoid

Desmond Ridder (QB18)
Opponent: @TB
Opponent Rank vs. QB: 5^th

The Buccaneers will be the Ridder’s toughest fantasy matchup he’s faced so far. Through six games, the toughest QB opponent Ridder has seen is the Panthers (10^th) back in Week 1. Ridder scored 7.9 points (QB26) in that game. Ridder has done some fantasy damage on the ground with 20 rushes for 75 yards and two TDs on the season. But the Buccaneers have been stingy in that department, allowing less than 10 QB rushing yards per game. That includes four rushes for three yards to Justin Fields and 10 rushes for 28 yards to Jalen Hurts.

Kirk Cousins (QB11)
Opponent: SF
Opponent Rank vs. SF: 4^th

Cousins draws the 49ers in Week 7, a team who has allowed under 250 passing yards in four of six games, and only five total passing TDs on the season. Outside of the one 20-point fantasy day they allowed to Joshua Dobbs, the 49ers have allowed only 7.2 PPG to QBs, and they held each QB to a negative POA. A negative game script could turn this call into a miss, but without Justin Jefferson, the 49ers should be able to hold this passing attack in check.

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups

The following WR table shows the top 60 WRs for Week 7 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.

 

Week 7: WR Matchups We Love

Tutu Atwell (WR57)
Opponent: PIT
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 30^th

I’m going right back to the well with Atwell. He was on my matchup love list last week and did not come through. But his situation has improved since then, and the Steelers enter Week 7 as the third-easiest matchup for fantasy WRs. Pittsburgh has allowed 43 points per game to the WR position (third-most) and a WR POA of +7.7 PPG (fourth-highest).

Atwell will likely be one of the beneficiaries of the Kyren Williams injury. The Rams have assembled a piecemeal RB room with Williams on the shelf, including rookie Zach Evans, Royce Freeman, and Darrell Henderson. For one, none of those RBs will command the target share earned by Williams so far. Even with their pass rate near 60%, I expect that to increase slightly in Williams’ absence, and with the WR target share at 70.7% (third-highest), all three WRs should thrive in this matchup.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR45)
Opponent: WAS
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 28^th

Robinson has taken over as the WR1 in New York, leading the WRs in targets over the last three games, and leading the team in targets in two of those games. On a bad offense, this hasn’t translated to many fantasy points yet, but that changes in Week 7 against the Commanders, the fifth-easiest WR matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

The WR POA allowed by the Commanders is +0.1, but that number includes two negative POA games, one against the Cardinals’ WRs and the other versus the Falcons, who have a historically low WR target share of 39.1%. In this matchup, Robinson will exceed his WR45 rank.

 

Week 7: Not Great, Bob – WR Matchups to Avoid

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR26)
Opponent: CLE
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 1^st

Potentially a WR you can’t afford to sit, this avoid is almost exclusively based on Pittman Jr.’s matchup against the Browns. Whether you are looking at raw fantasy points allowed or opponent-adjusted or POA, the Browns are the toughest fantasy WR matchup in the league. Cleveland has held opposing WR groups to an average of a -13.2 POA per game, a full point lower than the next-stingiest team (Jets). The Browns are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t allowed double-digit receptions to a WR group in any game. They are also the only team giving up less than 100 receiving yards per game to WRs.

Add to that Gardner Minshew at QB and both Pittman Jr. and teammate Josh Downs will likely struggle in Week 7.

Mike Evans (WR21)
Opponent: ATL
Opponent Rank vs. WR: 3^rd

This Evans call is similar to Pittman Jr. You’re starting Evans most weeks and my concern lies with the matchup. The Falcons have proven to be a brutal matchup for opposing fantasy WRs. Atlanta ranks fifth in raw fantasy points allowed and third in POA allowed to WRs, including holding WRs to a negative POA in five of six games.

Over the past three games, Atlanta has kept Calvin Ridley, Nico Collins, and Terry McLaurin outside of the top 24 and I see the same thing happening to Evans in Week 7.

 

Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups

The following RB table shows the top 50 RBs for Week 7 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.

I have also added a column to this chart. A few weeks ago, I introduced my ranking for RB points from receiving output only (PFR). The PFR ranks are included next to the overall RB ranks. What we are looking for with that side-by-side inclusion are discrepancies that may change the outlook of a matchup (depending on the RB).

There are more discrepancies between the two RB ranks than there were through five weeks.

Currently, the notable differences include the following:

• The Panthers rank 20 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 10^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: None. The Panthers are on bye.
• The Steelers are 12 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking eighth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: None of the potential Rams backup RBs are known as pass catchers.
• The Dolphins are 12 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking seventh in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell.
• The Giants are 11 spots better versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking as the toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. Impacted players: Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson.
• The Buccaneers are 14 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 27^th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. The Buccaneers rank 13^th versus RBs overall but can be beaten by RBs through the air. Impacted players: Bijan Robinson.
• The Jaguars are 14 spots worse versus RB PFR than overall RB, ranking 22^nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs via PFR. The Buccaneers rank eighth versus overall RB but are a softer matchup for pass-catching RBs. Impacted players: Alvin Kamara.
• The Eagles have been stout against fantasy RBs, ranking third according to my fantasy points allowed system. They rank 18 spots worse (21^st) versus RB PFR. Impacted players: Raheem Mostert.

Here is the chart showing these rank differences more clearly:

Now onto Week 7 RB matchups I love.

 

Week 7: RB Matchups We Love

Jerome Ford (RB13)
Opponent: @IND
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 25^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 20^th

After a rough stretch of games for Ford (Titans, Ravens, and 49ers over the last three games), his schedule finally sees some daylight against the 25th-ranked Colts. The Colts’ rank of 20^th versus RB PFR could be a boon for Ford as well. Since Week 1, Ford has averaged almost four targets per game and has two TD receptions. In that same timeframe, including the tough RB matchups described above, Ford has scored 14.5 PPG (0.5 PPR) and is the RB12. Kareem Hunt saw an uptick in usage and scored a TD in Week 6 coming out of the bye, which is a concern. But Ford still out-touched Hunt and had a 20% higher snap share.

Javonte Williams (RB19)
Opponent: GB
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 31^st
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 24^th

Williams gets a juicy matchup with the Packers in Week 7, both from an overall RB and RB PFR standpoint. The Packers have allowed a positive RB POA in three of five games, including a +8 POA average over the last three games. Green Bay’s strength comes from stopping fantasy WRs so the Broncos will likely go run-heavy, and a healthy Williams should lead this backfield even with the mini-emergence of Jaleel McLaughlin. Williams has yet to score a TD or put up any flashy fantasy numbers, but he’s had at least 10 rush attempts in every full game he’s played and three or more targets in all but one.

 

Week 7: Not Great Bob, RB Matchups to Avoid

Rachaad White (RB25)
Opponent: ATL
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 2^nd
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 6^th

White is off to a slow start in 2023 and faces one of the bigger surprises near the top of the RB points allowed list. The Falcons currently rank as the second-toughest matchup for fantasy RBs and have not allowed an RB group to exceed 70 yards rushing since the Lions back in Week 3. They have held opposing RBs to a -7.5 POA on the season and a -8 POA over the last three games. Brian Robinson Jr. finished as the RB16 in half-PPR against the Falcons in Week 6. Before that, the highest RB finish they allowed was RB22. White has only one TD on the season, and the Falcons have only allowed two RB TDs so far. And those were receiving TDs to Antonio Gibson and Robinson Jr. in Week 6. They have yet to surrender a rushing TD. White should have a relatively safe floor due to volume, but his ceiling is capped in this matchup.

Najee Harris (RB37)
Opponent: @LAR
Opponent Rank vs. RB: 5^th
Opponent Rank vs. RB PFR: 4^th

Another surprisingly stingy defense in 2023 has been the Los Angeles Rams. Not that it means a whole lot now, but the Rams were projected as having one of the worst defenses in the NFL during the offseason. And while they have been a decent matchup for fantasy QBs and TEs, they are one of the five toughest matchups for both RBs and WRs. The Steelers are coming off of their bye so maybe some adjustments have been made and we will see a more effective version of Harris. Harris has dominated the RB rush attempts for the Steelers, but hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game, losing much of that work to Jaylen Warren. In Weeks 1-5, Harris had the following RB finishes in half-PPR formats: RB45, RB41, RB34, RB17, and RB37. Warren has consistently outperformed Harris from a fantasy perspective, but Warren also has a bad matchup with the Rams ranking fourth versus RB PFR.

 

Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups

The following TE table shows the top 25 TEs for Week 7 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.

 

Week 7: TE Matchups We Love

When this article first published, this first TE was Pat Freiermuth with a matchup against the 30th-ranked Rams. However, Freiermuth has since been placed in Injured Reserve (IR) so the TE matchup I love was switched to Luke Musgrave.

Luke Musgrave (TE13)

Opponent: @DEN
Opponent Rank vs. TE: 32nd 

Musgrave has yet to put up a big fantasy day, mostly because he hasn’t found the endzone yet, but the rookie TE has a very appealing matchup this week against the Broncos, the most fantasy-friendly TE matchup in the league right now. Over the last three games the Broncos have given up 24.4 PPG to the TE position, including a POA of +8.5 points. That does include a game against Travis Kelce, but it also includes the Jets and allowing a career game to Cole Kmet.

And over the last two full games he’s played, Musgrave has caught 12 balls on 15 targets, good for a 21% target share, and has been on the field for over 70% of the Packers’ offensive snaps. At only 25% rostered in ESPN leagues, Musgrave is a solid option this week, especially if you’re looking for a Pat Freiermuth replacement.

 

Week 7: Not Great Bob, TE Matchups to Avoid

Hunter Henry (TE18)
Opponent: BUF
Opponent Rank vs. TE: 10^th

Henry has fallen quite a bit since his early season success, and he may not be a TE many managers are considering starting at this point. But again, we have six teams on bye this week so our bye week fill-in player pool is at its deepest. The Bills have not budged against TEs this year. No TE group has exceeded 50 receiving yards or six receptions in any game, and no TEs have scored against them. Henry started strong in 2023, averaging 5.8 targets and 44 receiving yards per game, including two TDs over the first four games. Since then, Henry has had one catch for seven yards on only five targets (in two games). Even with a good matchup, Henry would be a TE I’m avoiding, so I am steering well clear of him in Week 7.

I will finish with my “Postmortems,” looking back across each position at my Week 6 loves and “not great, Bobs” to see how I did.

 

Last Week's Postmortems

I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a post-mortem of the previous week’s likes and dislikes. I will subjectively judge myself based on the results of the previous week, with my take either being a “HIT” or a “MISS,” or in some cases a “PUSH.”

Week 6 QB Matchups I Loved

Gardner Minshew

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: QB20
• Week 6 Matchup: JAX (Rank: 23^rd)
• Week 6 Finish: QB18 (12.6 points)
• Verdict: PUSH

Joshua Dobbs

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: QB22
• Week 6 Matchup: LAR (Rank: 20^th)
• Week 6 Finish: QB19 (11.1 points)
• Verdict: PUSH

Week 6 QB Matchups I Avoided

Jared Goff

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: QB14
• Week 6 Matchup: TB (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 6 Finish: QB4 (22.4 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Sam Howell

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: QB13
• Week 6 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 15^th)
• Week 6 Finish: QB7 (18.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 6 QB Hit Rate: 0% (0-2)

Week 6 WR Matchups I Loved

Garrett Wilson

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: WR31
• Week 6 Matchup: PHI (Rank: 30^th)
• Week 6 Finish: WR16 (17.0 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Tutu Atwell

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: WR48
• Week 6 Matchup: ARI (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 6 Finish: WR77 (4.0 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 6 WR Matchups I Avoided

Marquise Brown

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: WR21
• Week 6 Matchup: LAR (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 6 Finish: WR49 (7.4 points)
• Verdict: HIT

DeVonta Smith

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: WR17
• Week 6 Matchup: NYJ (Rank: 2^nd)
• Week 6 Finish: WR40 (9.4 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 6 WR Hit Rate: 75% (3-1)

Week 6 RB Matchups I Loved

Alexander Mattison

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: RB17
• Week 6 Matchup: CHI (Rank: 31^st)
• Week 6 Finish: RB23 (11.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 6 RB Matchups I Avoided

Brian Robinson Jr.

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: RB16
• Week 6 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 1^st)
• Week 6 Finish: RB17 (13.6 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Jaleel McLaughlin

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: RB30
• Week 6 Matchup: KC (Rank: 6^th)
• Week 6 Finish: RB39 (6.2 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 6 RB Hit Rate: 67% (2-1)

Week 6 TE Matchups I Loved

Logan Thomas

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: TE8
• Week 6 Matchup: ATL (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 6 Finish: TE50 (1.2 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 6 TE Matchups I Avoided

Tyler Higbee

• Week 6 RotoBaller Rank: TE16
• Week 6 Matchup: ARI (Rank: 3^rd)
• Week 6 Finish: TE28 (3.8 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 6 TE Hit Rate: 50% (1-1)

Week 6 Total Hit Rate: 54.5% (6-5)

 

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).

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