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Yesterday, I decided to write a bunch of plays for you guys in the prop article. We got our hearts crushed by four separate hangers in which we were one strikeout or a hit away on our pitcher props. We have a small Thursday slate with only four games on the docket. I will share my favorite pitcher props and total base props on the short slate. Let's pick some more winners.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, August 31, 2023. I will continue to hone in on pitcher props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Braxton Garrett OVER 5.5 hits allowed (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We start tonight with another pitcher prop attacking the Marlins with hits. Last night, that was to no prevail with Jesus Luzardo, but here we are going right back to the well—this time against Braxton Garrett. Since the break, Garrett is allowing a .280 BAA and has allowed six or more hits in seven of his ten starts. The Nationals have a 111 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .471 SLG, and a .268 AVG against left-hand pitching over that period. I love the Nats to get six or more hits against Garrett tonight.
Matt Manning UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-190 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I have no idea why this line is set at 5.5. Matt Manning has made 13 starts in the big leagues this season. He has reached six strikeouts in one of them. The under on this bet has hit 12 of 13 times this season. On the season, Manning has a 15.5% K% and a 7.1% SwStr%. The Yankees projected lineup over the last 30 days does have a 27.7% K%, but I don’t see Manning, even against this dreadful Yankees team, having the swing-and-miss stuff to get to six strikeouts for the second time this season.
Spencer Strider OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yes, we are attacking the LA Dodgers tonight. No, I do not feel good about it. When we can get Spencer Strider south of eight strikeouts, I don't care who the opponent is; it's a line I will take a chance on. On the season, Strider has a 38.1% K%, 19.7% SwStr%, and leads the big leagues with 236 strikeouts. Strider has made 26 starts so far this season. He has eight or more strikeouts in 21 of them. The Dodgers are an intimidating offense, but give me Strider over eight strikeouts.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Kerry Carpenter OVER 1.5 total bases (+130 DraftKings SportsBook)
This afternoon, Kerry Carpenter will square off against Clarke Schmidt and the Yankees in an island game on the MLB schedule. Schmidt has been susceptible to getting hit by lefties all season. Schmidt owns a .387 wOBA, .215 ISO, and a 58.0% hard hit. Carpenter has been on a tear since the break: He holds a 172 wRC+, .420 wOBA, and a .623 SLG against right-hand hitters. Since August 1, he owns a 205 wRC+, .468 wOBA, and a .713 SLG.
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