Tight End Sleepers and Fantasy Football ADP Values - Dalton Kincaid, Irv Smith Jr., Cole Kmet, more

Joey's tight end sleepers and ADP value picks for 2023 fantasy football drafts. These are fantasy football TE sleepers who could break out this season.

The tight end position is the hardest to evaluate in fantasy football. There’s one clear elite option in Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. Then there are solid options in the middle rounds in Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson, San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle and Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert.

After that, there are tight ends that are high-risk, high-reward. Those players are Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons and Darren Waller of the New York Giants. But realistically, outside of Kelce, the tight end position doesn’t have consistent scoring.

Kelce outscored Hockenson -- who finished as the TE2 -- by 100.9 PPR fantasy points last season. So if you miss out on the Chiefs' tight end in the first round and want to wait for one, you have come to the right place. This list will provide five tight ends who are great values at their current average draft position (ADP).

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

There are good reasons why tight end Cole Kmet is going in the 10th to 11th round in most 10-12 non-Superflex leagues. For starters, he plays on an offense that threw the ball just 43.8% of the time in 2022 (the fewest in the NFL). Quarterback Justin Fields also completed only 58.4% of his passes last season. On top of that, the Bears added D.J. Moore this offseason. So opportunities could be limited for the tight end.

However, the expectation is that the Bears’ passing offense will be better in 2023, which will boost Kmet’s fantasy value. Even in an abysmal passing season in Chicago, the 24-year-old tight end finished as the TE7 in all formats. He had three top-five TE finishes and ended the year with 50 catches for 544 yards and seven touchdowns.

There’s no doubt that Kmet and Fields formed a special kind of connection toward the end of the season. If that connection continues into 2023, the tight end can be a weekly fantasy starter again. The former Notre Dame star will need the Bears’ passing offense to take a step up this year for him to provide consistent production, though. It’s certainly possible, but it depends on Fields.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Every fantasy manager wants to grab the hottest new rookies. Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is going later in the first round, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seattle Seahawks and Jordan Addison of the Minnesota Vikings are wide receivers going in the middle rounds. But the hype should be around rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. The Bills’ new playmaker has an ADP of 117.8 on Sleeper and 150.2 on ESPN.

It’s obvious why Kincaid might be going in the 10th to 12th round on different platforms: rookie tight ends don’t produce big stats in year one. Unless you’re Kyle Pitts -- who finished as the TE6 in PPR formats in 2021 -- it doesn’t happen very often. However, none of those players had a quarterback like Josh Allen throwing them the ball.

It’s easy to pass on Kincaid in the later rounds because the stereotypical rookie tight ends always struggle. While that is true, the Bills’ new playmaker is more like a wideout than anything. Reports are that he will be mostly lining up in the slot in year one, which immediately boosts his fantasy value. In the 10th round, no one has bigger upside than him. He should be on your radar this season, especially if you pass on Kelce, Andrews, or Hockenson early on.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson comes into his second NFL season in line for a starting spot. Ferguson was drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft and seeks a larger role in 2023. Following the departure of Dalton Schultz, the former Wisconsin product is likely to be Dallas’ top tight end option this season.

Ferguson showed glimpses of his potential in his first NFL season, catching 19 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns. His best game came in Week 6 against the Philadelphia Eagles when Schultz was absent. He had four catches for 40 yards and one touchdown in that contest. Despite Dallas drafting tight end Luke Schoonmaker in the second round, Ferguson should still see much more involvement in the passing game in year two.

Ferguson is one of the best sleeper options in fantasy drafts this season. His current ADP is 169.5 on ESPN, which seems like a bargain for a player in Dallas’ offense. The Cowboys averaged the fourth most points per game (26.8) in 2022. With the young tight end seemingly replacing Schultz in the passing game, he should see increased targets all around, especially in the red zone.

Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos

The second-year breakout could be real for Denver Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich. After an impressive rookie campaign, the Broncos are high on the former 2022 third-round pick. Dulcich missed the first five games of his rookie season with a hamstring injury but made a quick impression upon his return.

Dulcich had double-digit PPR fantasy points in three straight games to begin his NFL career and finished the season with 33 catches for 411 yards and two touchdowns. He also averaged 8.6 PPR fantasy points last season on a subpar Broncos offense. With head coach Sean Payton now in Denver, Dulcich could be headed for a bigger role in 2023.

Payton has raved about Dulcich’s skillset through training camp, even referring him to the term "joker." The joker in Payton’s offense is a tight end or running back that the team moves all over the field to create mismatches. The second-year tight end could be coined with that status this season, which would be huge for his fantasy potential. Denver’s offense will be better in 2023, and the 23-year-old's 11th-round ADP is a steal.

Irv Smith Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals tight end Irv Smith Jr. is the last one to make this list. If you’re completely punting this position in fantasy drafts, Smith could be a great late-round value. After four years with the Minnesota Vikings, Smith signed a one-year deal with the Bengals this offseason. While he hasn’t seen much production in his first couple of seasons, Cincinnati’s offense could help the 25-year-old break out in 2023.

From a fantasy perspective alone, you want players that play for elite offenses. Better offense means more points and yards, which means more fantasy points each game. Not only does Smith fall under that category this year, but he also gets Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Burrow throwing to him. In that offense, he might have more upside than tight ends like Hayden Hurst, Juwan Johnson, and Hunter Henry -- all of whom are going around him in drafts.

Smith is worth a shot in the later rounds just because of the offense he now plays in. Last season, Hurst had seven games over eight PPR fantasy points, including three top-10 TE finishes. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect consistent production from the 25-year-old. However, he will be utilized in the middle of the field on an elite offense. His ADP is around the 17th round in most 10-12 team leagues.

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