RADIO
These next six weeks are going to be vital both for MLB teams in contention and also for the fantasy stock of many relief pitchers. Entering Tuesday, there were only six teams that were double-digit games out of first place. There are only two that are double-digit games out of a final Wild Card spot.
That means most teams are a hot streak away from being in contention. It also means that many teams are a cold streak away from potentially blowing things up. There are a number of teams that we thought would be sellers but have performed well enough that they could be buyers instead. And vice versa.
It makes figuring out which relievers could be traded a little tough at this point. But these next few weeks will be vital to monitor and keep a close eye on. One thing is certain though, trades are going to shake up the relief pitcher market in a big way.
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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball
The Cardinals bullpen has been featured in this column often as of late. Even before he was picking up saves, I was advocating to roster Giovanny Gallegos. He now leads the team with eight saves on the season. He should be the primary closer now as Ryan Helsley landed on the 15-day IL with a forearm strain this week. Gallegos goes from a committee to being a must-start reliever. Jordan Hicks is next up in the bullpen.
The Yankees' bullpen has been frustrating as of late. After starting the year as the closer, Clay Holmes hit a rocky patch and we saw four different pitchers pick up saves with others in the picture. In the last two weeks though, Holmes has taken back over as the primary closer, picking up three of their four saves. In that span, Holmes has pitched to a 0.00 ERA and 0.79 WHIP with a 30 percent strikeout rate. The other save went to Wandy Peralta, who remains the top fallback option in this bullpen.
The White Sox saw Liam Hendriks return after beating cancer, pitch well, and even pick up a save. He was all set to overtake the closer role, but then he landed on the IL with right elbow inflammation. That pushes Kendall Graveman back into the closer role for the Sox and he has shown he can handle the job. The White Sox have no shortage of fallback options with Reynaldo Lopez, Joe Kelly, and Keynan Middleton. If you are looking for a flier, I like them in that order.
The Marlins saw A.J. Puk come back from the IL and he immediately returned to closing games for them. He has Miami’s lone save since and should once again be universally started in fantasy leagues. Dylan Floro held the job down adequately in his absence and is clearly the next man up. He can be rostered either as a handcuff to Puk or for ratios and strikeouts with the chance of a save here and there.
Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball
The Phillies were able to activate Jose Alvarado off the IL. Since he returned, he has thrown two innings with a 4.50 ERA and 2.50 WHIP. It is a small sample and could just be him ramping back into form after a short absence. Craig Kimbrel has the Phillies' lone save in the last week and will remain in the closer picture all year for Philly. I am expecting a committee between Alvarado and Kimbrel. While Alvarado is my preferred option, Philly has clearly shown that they will use both -- making the two pitchers worthy of rostering in fantasy baseball.
I keep saying to stay away from the A’s bullpen, but I keep writing about them for those desperate enough to chase saves here. After having just four saves for the vast majority of the season, the A’s actually picked up five saves in the last week. Two of them went to Trevor May, two to Sam Long, and one to Ken Waldichuk.
The money and strikeouts point to May getting the chances. But May has struggled, allowing a lot of baserunners this season. Long may not get the strikeouts like May, but he has been the better source of ratios. I rank them May, Long, and then if you for some reason want to take a deep flier here, that would be Waldichuk.
The Nationals have been using Kyle Finnegan more in the middle innings as a bridge to the ninth inning as of late. In fact, over the last two weeks, he does not have a save, while the team's lone one went to Hunter Harvey. I still think Finnegan has the highest odds of picking up the saves for the Nationals, but he is certainly losing his grip on the job.
While he can still be started in fantasy, Harvey should also be picked up. Not only could a trade clear the path for him to overtake the closer gig but there is also a chance that happens even without a trade. He should be picked up in fantasy this week. It may cost a lot more to add him a couple of weeks from now.
The Rockies' bullpen is becoming tougher and tougher to trust. After Pierce Johnson lost the closer role, we have seen Justin Lawrence pick up two saves and Matt Carasiti picked up one in the last two weeks. Lawrence has pitched to a 3.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 21 percent strikeout rate. He is the top option to roster here, followed by Carasiti. There is also Daniel Bard looming, but until we see him used in a save situation, we have to let that dream go. This is a volatile bullpen right now.
Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball
I have spent a lot of time advocating to stash Aroldis Chapman and that is not changing with us getting closer to the deadline. In the last month, Chapman has just one save, but he has pitched to a 1.04 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 50 percent strikeout rate. That’s right, he has struck out half the batters he has faced. He is a lock to be traded as the Royals have quickly approached Oakland A’s territory. He could end up closing out games in the second half of the season. If not, he can still provide ratios and strikeouts.
And if Chapman is traded, we could also see the Royals shop Scott Barlow. That would leave Carlos Hernandez as the favorite to pick up saves in Kansas City. He has an inflated ERA in the last month, but he has pitched to a 0.82 WHIP and a 35 percent strikeout rate. He provides ratios and strikeouts and just might have a path to closing out games in the second half of the season.
Taylor Rogers has been lights out in the last month. In that span, he has pitched to a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with a 53 percent strikeout rate. The only reliever with a higher strikeout rate in that span is Felix Bautista (62 percent). Rogers may not get you any saves, but if you are in need of fixing your ratios or finding strikeouts, he is an option for you.
Steven Okert is a similar option to Rogers. In the last month, he has pitched to a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with a 46 percent strikeout rate. He will not provide any saves in Miami, but he can certainly provide valuable ratios. He is an option for those in deeper leagues, especially NL-only ones.
Scott McGough pitched to a 0.00 ERA and 0.82 WHIP with a 39 percent strikeout rate in the last month. In that span, he has thrown 14.2 innings, which is toward the league lead among relievers. He also picked up a save over the weekend, coming in to relieve a struggling Andrew Chafin. It was his second save of the season, showing that he will get the occasional opportunity.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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