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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 12, 2023. Brenton Kemp's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
It's a tasty 13-game MLB main slate this Friday night as we look to get our weekends started on the right note! Let's dive into some of the best pitching options as well as the top hitters from the infield and outfield followed by the best stacking options on what should be a dandy of a Friday evening!
Remember, this 13-game slate locks at 7:05 PM ET on Friday, May 12 so be sure to get your lineups set and locked before that deadline! Remember, feel free to give me a follow and hit me up on Twitter @BKemp17 with any comments, questions, or banter when it comes to these free MLB DFS picks!
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Let's get after it and come out on top tonight!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Burnes - SP, MIL vs. Kansas City Royals ($9,200 DK, $10,00 FD)
Even with Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider on the slate, Corbin Burnes is going to see big-time ownership considering his price and his matchup this evening against the lowly Kansas City Royals.
The Royals are tied for 21st with a .305 wOBA on the season and they sit 16th with a 23.2% K% on the season. They've steadily improved their strikeout rate as the season has progressed but it's a light-hitting offense that Burnes should be able to carve up tonight.
The right-hander hasn't enjoyed a great start to his season as he sports a 3.86 ERA/4.29 FIP along with a 4.53 SIERA on the campaign. His elite control has abandoned him so far but he's also sporting a 19.8% K% on the season, a figure well below his dominant 31.3% mark for his career. Weird, right?
All told, this is a great matchup to get straightened out as Burnes' strikeout rate is due to regress positively in a big way moving forward.
Sonny Gray - SP, MIN vs. Chicago Cubs ($10,000 DK, $10,800 FD)
With Cole taking on the Rays and Strider in Toronto against a loaded Blue Jays offense, I'll run the risk and fade those two strikeout artists and grab Sonny Gray in a more favorable matchup at home versus the Cubs.
Yes, the Cubs' offense has been rather solid this season as they don't strike out a ton. They are tied for fourth with a .339 wOBA and are tied for 11th with a 21.9% K% on the campaign. Not a great matchup on the surface but this offense will regress moving forward.
Indeed, Chicago's .323 BABIP sits second in baseball. Only the Phillies have had a higher average on balls put into play.
As for Gray, all he's done is put forth a 1.35 ERA on the season along with a 2.08 FIP and 2.83 xERA that supports his work. He sports a dynamite 29% K% on the season while he has not allowed a home run in 40 innings of work.
Look for him to keep rolling in this one tonight.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Tommy Edman - SS, STL vs. James Paxton ($4,100 DK, $2,800 FD)
I'll touch on this more shortly but for now let's ensure we get Tommy Edman into our lineups tonight against James Paxton at Fenway Park in Boston.
It's Paxton's return from yet another injury and the Cards should be able to touch him up in this one. You have to love targeting a subpar left-hander at Fenway given the favorable hitting conditions for right-handed hitters. For right-handed hitters that already rake lefties, it's even more attractive.
Edman has five homers and three steals on the season with three of those five homers coming against lefties despite seeing 56 more plate appearances against righties. He's hitting .375 with a 1.147 OPS for the season against southpaws.
So, ya, let's get Edman into those lineups out of the Cardinals' leadoff spot tonight.
Mike Brosseau - 3B, MIL vs. Josh Taylor ($3,200 DK, $2,300 FD)
The top-tier pitching isn't cheap on this slate so here's an excellent opportunity to grab some value at the dish.
Josh Taylor won't get deep into this one as he's a reliever by trade but he also sports a 6.55 ERA in nine outings on the season. All Brosseau may need is one crack at the southpaw.
He's been better against righties in a small sample this season but his .794 OPS off lefties in his career is far superior to his .681 mark off righties. Sixteen of his 25 career homers have come off left-handed pitching while he's a career .267 hitter off lefties versus a .213 mark off righties.
This is a player who should come in at low ownership, making him a rock-solid GPP option tonight in Milwaukee.
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 1B, SF vs. Ryne Nelson ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)
LaMonte Wade Jr. is a nice option at first base out of the leadoff spot against D-backs right-hander Ryne Nelson.
The guy is raking this season as he has seven home runs along with a .951 OPS across 35 appearances. His .416 wOBA is one thing but his .434 xwOBA ranks in the league's 98th percentile. The guy is crushing the baseball and the leadoff spot is a bonus.
He takes on a righty in Nelson who sports a 6.00 ERA in seven starts this season. He's allowed a 1.25 HR/9 and while his hard-hit and barrel rates are solid, his 5.02 SIERA is certainly a targetable figure.
Wade makes plenty of sense at a dirt-cheap rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Adolis Garcia - OF, TEX vs. Ken Waldichuk ($5,000 DK, $4,000 FD)
Adolis Garcia may not be one of the cheaper options on this slate but he has a nice opportunity ahead of himself tonight against A's lefty Ken Waldichuk.
I mean, the southpaw owns a 7.25 ERA/7.67 FIP along with a 5.24 SIERA on the season. He has a 3.00 HR/9 on the campaign, or in layman's term, he's allowed an eye-popping 12 home runs in just 36 innings for the season.
Look for Garcia to tee off. He already has nine long balls with three stolen bases on the season. This isn't so much a righty-on-lefty thing here as Garcia actually sports reverse splits for his career but Waldichuk has been obliterated to the tune of a 1.030 OPS and .436 wOBA against right-handed hitters this season.
The power/speed combination is real in this one.
Alex Verdugo - OF, BOS vs. Adam Wainwright ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD)
Yet another leadoff hitter in this piece is Alex Verdugo who takes on a right-hander in Adam Wainwright who also returns from an injury opposite James Paxton.
Wainwright is Cooperstown-bound but has his issues with left-handed hitters. This should be especially true against Verdugo who is having a fine season to this point. The right-fielder is hitting .308 with five homers, three stolen bases, and an .880 OPS across 37 games to this point while his 140 wRC+ tells us his bat has been 40% superior to the league average.
The former Dodger is also hitting .320 with a .950 OPS and 156 wRC+ off of right-handed pitching. Once again, the leadoff spot is a bonus to what is already a great matchup.
J.D. Martinez - OF, LAD vs. Blake Snell ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD)
Blake Snell has got to be the most frustrating pitcher from a fantasy perspective. He can either win a Cy Young or be terrible. The latter has been true so far this season.
Snell owns a 4.89 ERA/5.48 FIP on the season while serving up 1.80 home runs per nine innings. His control issues at back by way of a 13.4% BB% while his 24.8% K% is a shell of his 32% mark from a season ago.
Enter Martinez who was raking before hitting the injured list. He returns tonight while ranking in the league's 89th percentile in average exit velocity and 88th in barrel rate. He has four homers, nine doubles, and two triples in just 23 games. I'll take that against a scuffling left-hander.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
St. Louis Cardinals vs. James Paxton
There hasn't been a more disappointing team in baseball than the Cardinals but if they can't get it together tonight it may not happen at all.
Tommy Edman is a fantastic option to lead things off and you know where to go from there. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Dylan Carlson are fantastic options who will hit from the right side and take aim at the Green Monster Friday night at Fenway.
Texas Rangers vs. Ken Waldichuk
I touched on Adolis Garcia but he's far from the only attractive Rangers option tonight.
Marcus Semien will hit out of the leadoff spot and he plays second base which likely makes him the best option at that position Friday night. Robbie Grossman is a cheap outfield option while Josh Jung makes great sense at the hot corner. Heck, give Jonah Heim a solid look behind the plate as he's emerging as one of the best bats behind the plate in fantasy baseball.
Good luck tonight, everyone!
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