Jordan Addison NFL Rookie Profile - Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

April 30, 2023

Phil Clark's fantasy football rookie analysis for wide receiver Jordan Addison. Is this NFL rookie wide receiver a 2023 fantasy football draft sleeper?

The fervor for members of this year’s rookie class has ignited enormous interest within the fantasy community, as managers and analysts have immersed themselves in a detailed evaluation surrounding a collection of these first-year players. This involved an assessment of strengths and weaknesses, a review of achievements at the collegiate level, and an examination of analytics toward determining the projected outlook for each rookie.

However, the galvanizing impact of this process remained incomplete until the destinations for these rookies were determined during the NFL Draft. This provided an immediate conclusion to all uncertainty regarding the landing spots for these players, which has made a monumental impact on the fantasy landscape. The results of this year’s draft have also been essential in finalizing the restructured outlooks for the most intriguing members of the 2023 class of wide receivers.

That includes promising newcomer Jordan Addison, who emerged among the four receivers who were selected during the opening round of the draft. Minnesota's decision to secure Addison with the 23rd overall pick should diminish the trepidation that had surfaced surrounding his lack of optimal size, as the combination of his enticing attributes and his placement in a favorable environment has also positioned him to become the most productive receiver from this year's rookie class. Those encouraging factors have also provided fantasy managers with the incentive to consider Addison as a player to target for their rosters during 2023 and beyond.

Jordan Addison NFL Rookie Profile

Team: Minnesota Vikings 

College: Pittsburgh/USC

Height: 5’11"

Weight 173

Age: 21 (1/27/2002)

Arm Length: 30.88”

Hand Size: 8.75”

2022 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick: 23

Jordan Addison's Path To A First-Round Selection

Addison played multiple sports at Tuscarora (Maryland) high school, which included his four seasons as a starter in football. He operated as an option quarterback, and also performed at defensive back, but ultimately became a four-star prospect due to his achievements at wide receiver during his career with the Titans.

Most #Ravens fans don’t know this, but Jordan Addison is Maryland born and raised. Jordan grew up in Frederick, Md. attending Tuscarora High School.

Addison’s High School tape is just silly 🤯😳

Would be cool to see Jordan come back to Maryland & play in Baltimore.#RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/wRGgVC9KoG

— Flockville (@Flockville) February 23, 2023

Addison accumulated 25 receptions, 544 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns during his final season while averaging 21.8 yards per reception. He emerged as the nation’s 21st overall prospect at his position by 247 sports, and committed to the University of Pittsburgh following his senior year at Tuscarora (2019), after eliciting offers from a collection of schools that included Maryland, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, and East Carolina. Addison’s decision was partially based on his connection with the Panthers’ wide receivers coach Chris Beatty, who had previously provided Addison with his first offer while operating in the same capacity at Maryland.

Interesting connection with WR prospect Jordan Addison & Chargers WR coach Chris Beatty.
Coach Beatty just so happens to be the coach who recruited Addison, originally to Maryland, then to Pitt.
Listen to Addison explain the journey on the Rich Eisen Show
Full link in comments pic.twitter.com/xqUBzI996T

— BOLTS Draft Talk (@BoltsDraftTalk) April 4, 2023

Jordan Addison's Rise To Prominence At Pittsburgh

Addison started eight games for Pitt as a freshman while leading the Panthers in targets (89), receptions (60), receiving touchdowns (4), and receiving yards (666). His average of 6.0 receptions per game also led all freshman receivers, as did his overall reception total.

Addison’s career surged significantly as a sophomore in 2021 while operating in the Panthers’ west-coast spread offense that finished third overall in scoring (41.4 points per game) under the guidance of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple.

Kenny Pickett: Highest-graded deep passer (96.5)

Jordan Addison: Most 20+ yard catches (18) pic.twitter.com/I7vTg7A4Ub

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 21, 2021

Addison thrived with his critical role in a Pitt aerial attack that also ranked eighth in passing yardage (337.4 per game) as his adeptness as a route runner enabled him to instinctively prevail against coverage and achieve separation on a consistent basis. He also functioned as the preferred receiving option of  Kenny Pickett – whose performance as the Panthers’ signal caller culminated in ACC Player of the Year honors in 2021.

Addison soared to fourth among all (FBS) wide receivers in receiving yards (1,593), which included eight games in which he eclipsed 100+.  He also vaulted to sixth in receptions (100), paced all receivers in receiving touchdowns (17), and scored in nine of his 14 matchups. He earned the distinction of first-team All-American following his 2021 statistical eruption, by attaining that designation from the Associated Press, the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA), the Sporting News, and Walter Camp. Addison’s accomplishments also propelled him to the Biletnikoff Award, which is presented each year to the most outstanding receiver in college football.

Jordan Addison Highlights from his Sophmore Season at Pitt #pitt #H2P #Steelers #HereWeGo #jordanaddison #pittsburgh #kennypickett pic.twitter.com/1kurGPYdhq

— matthew luciow (@Luciow1992) February 7, 2023

However, the script was dramatically altered at Pitt as Whipple resigned in December of 2021 after Pickett was already destined to enter the NFL Draft. Addison eventually announced his intention to leave the program, by entering the transfer portal in May of 2022.

Jordan Addison Resurfaces At USC 

pic.twitter.com/5oN0ZVGsCC

— Jordan Addison (@Espn_Jordan) May 19, 2022

Addison’s ultimately resurfaced at USC following his decision to continue his collegiate career in a new environment. This presented Addison with an opportunity to run routes in an offense that would be restructured under first-year head coach Lincoln Riley – who migrated from Oklahoma after five seasons as the Sooners’ head coach. Addison also operated with quarterback Caleb Williams, who had followed Riley from Oklahoma to USC. Former Oklahoma wide receiver Mario Williams also joined the exodus to USC, after finishing second on the Sooners in receptions (35) and receiving yards (380), in 2021.

First touchdown of the Lincoln Riley era at USC: Caleb Williams to Jordan Addison pic.twitter.com/vagZv0uzZs

— Keely Eure (@keelyismyname) September 3, 2022

Riley implemented his variation of the Air Raid offense, which fueled a ranking of third overall in passing for the Trojans (335.4 yards per game). USC also rose to third in yards per attempt (9.12), and points per game (41.4), while exceeding the team’s averages in each category during 2021 (298.3 yards per game/7.2 yards per attempt/28.7 points per game).

Caleb Williams to Jordan Addison FTW‼️

Fight On ✌🏾✌🏾

(🎥: @Espn_Jordan, @CALEBcsw, @Pac12Network) pic.twitter.com/oYwAK0rWHJ

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 25, 2022

Addison also operated as the primary receiving option for Williams – who generated 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns through the air, while also capturing the Heisman Trophy.

Great throw from Caleb Williams to Jordan Addison. Addison already with three catches for 101 yards. #USC pic.twitter.com/FOrEudG0N5

— Trevor Booth (@TrevorMBooth) November 20, 2022

However, Addison’s numbers during 2022 failed to replicate the results he had attained during his two seasons at Pitt. He was sidelined during three matchups due to an ankle injury, but still led the Trojans in receptions (59), touchdowns (eight), and receiving yards (875), which included four games of 100+. Addison also averaged 2.78 yards per route run according to PFF.

Jordan Addison's Uninspiring Numbers At The NFL Combine

Addison’s performance at the NFL Combine can hardly be classified as ideal. However, the results did provide a demonstration of his route-running acumen, excellent footwork, acceleration, and reliable hands, while also serving as a reminder that he lacks elite speed and desirable size. Fortunately, his favorable traits have superseded any concerns regarding his unimpressive results and did not preclude him from becoming a first-round selection.

Nice improvement from @uscfb WR Jordan Addison with a 4.49u on his second run.

📺: #NFLCombine on @nflnetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/sIDu6ymzRo

— NFL (@NFL) March 4, 2023

Addison’s initial time in the 40-yard dash (4.55) ignited an immediate and highly unfavorable response on Twitter before the 4.49 that he registered on his second run raised him to 21st in his position. His results in both the vertical jump (34”) and the broad jump (10’2”) were also uninspiring, although another opportunity for Addison to display his capabilities appeared to loom in advance of USC’s Pro Day.

Going to need flippers to run fast out here today. pic.twitter.com/Hu5gSNsKlU

— Eric Williams (@eric_d_williams) March 21, 2023

Unfortunately, the aforementioned Pro Day transpired during rainy conditions. This limited Addison’s involvement to running routes on a field that was saturated with water. However, that still provided an opportunity for him to display his greatest strength.

Jordan Addison's Opportunity To Thrive In Minnesota

With the No. 23 overall pick in the 2023 @NFLDraft, the @Vikings select Jordan Addison!@neweracap | #SKOL

📺: 2023 #NFLDraft on NFLN/ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/D3EqkrKdIw pic.twitter.com/QnR2mxzbW0

— NFL (@NFL) April 28, 2023

Following months of speculation regarding Addison’s prospects of being a first-round selection, he was ultimately secured at the conclusion of a sequence in which four consecutive receivers attained first-round draft status. Addison will now be integrated into an aerial attack that includes the league's premiere wide receiver, but also contains an unobstructed pathway to an ongoing role as the Vikings' WR2.

Addison joins an offense that will be operating under the direction of Kevin O’Connell, who enters his second season as Minnesota’s head coach, while also retaining his role as the Vikings’ play-caller. Minnesota ranked sixth overall in passing (263.8 yards per game), and third in pass play percentage (64.4%) during O’Connell’s first year as the architect of the Vikings' attack.

Kirk Cousins will turn 35 in August and is entering the final year of his current contract. However, he remains primed to spearhead Minnesota’s offense for a sixth consecutive season despite the uncertainty that surrounds his status beyond 2023. Cousins rose to fourth in attempts (643/37.8 per game) and was also fourth in completions (424/24.9 per game/65.9%). He also finished fourth in yardage (4,547/267.5 per game), and completed the year with a touchdown to interception ratio of 29:14. He also finished third overall in intended air yards (4,800), and rose to second in completed air yards (2,569).

The Vikings should sustain a heavy reliance on their passing attack, after finishing just 30th in run play percentage (35.6%) during 2022. Justin Jefferson's substantial involvement in the team's aerial efforts will be unchallenged, but that will not prevent Addison from becoming a frequent recipient of targets from Cousins.

O'Connell will have the option of deploying Addison inside or outside, after he accumulated 1,102 snaps from the slot, and 757 snaps outside during his collegiate career, according to PFF.  It is also conceivable that Addison could line up in the backfield.

Jordan Addison is lethal with space/free access.. Tough to press ‘em out of the backfield 😁 pic.twitter.com/5KyjdQRyIV

— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) February 15, 2023

 

Jordan Addison's  Competition For Targets 

Justin Jefferson x Jordan Addison in Minnesota 👀 pic.twitter.com/nh89tydEh4

— PFF (@PFF) April 28, 2023

Cousins also distributed 63.5% of his targets to wide receivers, which was the league’s eighth-highest percentage. That includes the league-high 184 targets that were stockpiled by Jefferson, who finished as the league leader in an assortment of categories during 2022, including points per game (18.0), targets (184/10.8 per game), receptions (128/7.5 per game), receiving yards (1,809/106.4 per game), receptions of 20+ yards (28), games with 100+ yards (10), yards after catch (624), red zone targets (29), and routes run (668).

Jefferson was also targeted on 27.5% of his routes while averaging 2.71 yards per route run. His status as the NFL’s predominant wide receiver will command the attention of opposing defenses while enhancing Addison's potential to locate soft spots in coverage.

Even though Jefferson will build upon the numbers that he has accumulated from 2020-2022 (476 targets/9.5 per game), (324 receptions/6.5 per game), (4,825 receiving yards/96.5 per game), the departure of Adam Thielen has ensured that Addison will not encounter a formidable competitor for the opportunity to function as the Vikings’ WR2.

Addison should confiscate a significant percentage of the 107 targets that were secured by Thielen in 2022. It was the fourth time that Thielen had eclipsed 100+ since 2017, while he also attained a 16.7% target share.  Thielen also accumulated 653 targets (7.5 per game), 445 receptions (5.1 per game) 5,434 receiving yards (62.5 per game), and 49 touchdowns from 2017-2022, while collecting 310 targets (6.9 per game), 211 receptions (4.7 per game),  2,367 receiving yards (52.6 per game), and 30 touchdowns since Jefferson was infused into the Vikings' aerial attack in 2020.

However, Thielen’s per-game averages of 7.3 targets/5.0 receptions/59 yards during 2020-2021 diminished to 6.7 targets/4.1 receptions/41.2 yards last season. His average of 8.5 points per game also dropped from the 14.5/12.8 that he had attained during his two previous seasons.

Thielen also finished fourth among all wide receivers in routes run (593), operated from the slot on 58% of those routes, and was also targeted on 18% of his routes. His exodus is part of the offseason renovation in Carolina that included an influx of several veteran wide receivers, even though Thielen will enter his 11th season amid an unmistakable career descent.

Jordan Addison averaged 2.78 yards per route run last season at USC per PFF

That would have ranked 2nd in the NFL last year behind only Tyreek Hill

K.J. Osborn and Adam Thielen both averaged 1.08 yards per route run in 2022, which ranked tied for 83rd in the NFL

— Adam Patrick (@Str8_Cash_Homey) April 28, 2023

An ankle injury limited Thielen to 23 snaps and three targets from Weeks 14-18 in 2021 which provided K.J. Osborn with an opportunity to ascend into an expanded role. Osborn attained a 19.3% target share during that sequence, while capturing 28 targets (5.6 per game), 15 receptions (3.0 per game), 243 receiving yards (48.6 per game), and averaging 11.2 points per game.

However, Osborn has not demonstrated that he is sufficiently equipped to function as a WR2 on a sustained basis. He finished third among Minnesota's wide receivers with a 14.0% target share last season, while accumulating 11+ targets in two different matchups, but failing to surpass four targets in eight other contests. He also collected 60 receptions (3.5 per game), and 650 receiving yards (38.2 per game) while averaging 7.4 points per game. He will return for the final season of his rookie contract, but Addison should quickly catapult beyond him on the depth chart.

Cousins also distributed 13.7% of his passes to members of the Vikings' backfield, which ranked 29th overall. Dalvin Cook collected 56 targets (3.5 per game/8.7% share) which was the second-highest total of his career. Cook also paced the backfield in receptions (39/2.3 per game), receiving yards (295/17.4 per game), and routes run (354). Cook’s outlook for 2023 remains unpredictable and the backfield could easily be restructured during the upcoming weeks.

Trade: Detroit is dealing TE T.J. Hockenson in its division, to the Minnesota Vikings, per sources. pic.twitter.com/R39lvQxVsy

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 1, 2022

T.J. Hockenson finished second on the team with the 21.8% target share from Weeks 9-18, after Detroit jettisoned him to Minnesota during a surprising interdivisional trade. Hockenson also finished second on the Vikings in targets, 86 (8.6 per game), receptions (60/6.0 per game), and receiving yards (519/51.9 per game). He also vaulted to second among all tight ends in each of those categories during that sequence, while finishing second overall in routes run (301).

Even though Hockenson became Cousins' second option after he emerged in the Vikings' offense, it will be difficult for him to retain that role due to Addison's arrival. Former Jaguar Josh Oliver was signed in March, and his prowess as a blocker could provide an indication that increased deployment of 12 personnel is imminent. However, Hockenson will retain it is reasonable to expect Jefferson and Addison to remain on the field in those situations.

Jordan Addison's Fantasy Football Outlook

The 5’,11”, 173-pound Addison does not possess the size, and degree of physicality that would advance him closer to the periphery of an unflawed prospect at wide receiver, and he will not operate with exceptional speed. These factors had elicited concern among some analysts prior to the NFL Draft, while also creating apprehension surrounding his prospects of sustaining consistent production at the professional level.

However, recent history has provided evidence that undersized wide receivers can be proficient if they possess a collection of strengths that will blend with a legitimate path toward favorable targeting in their environment. These examples of statistical success should quell excessive concern regarding Addison’s prospects of procuring an integral role with the Vikings.

Addison will not turn 22 until January and will enter Week 1 with a favorable outlook for 2023. Managers in dynasty leagues should not be deterred from targeting him solely on the basis of the Vikings’ unsettled situation under center, as he should remain a valuable roster resource even if Minnesota transitions from Cousins in 2024.

Two minutes of filthiness from new #Vikings WR Jordan Addison

pic.twitter.com/90bOzxLn5G

— Matt Anderson (@MattAnderson_8) April 28, 2023

His refined route-running remains foremost among the attributes that he has displayed while performing proficiently in two different offensive systems at the collegiate level. These capabilities combine with his burst, vision, and acceleration, and should supply the runway for Addison to create space and collect receptions.

He was also the only member of this year's rookie class who eclipsed 1,000 yards when confronted with man coverage according to PFF, while also attaining an average of 3.29 yards per route run - which placed him fourth overall.

Addison is also capable of exploiting soft spots in zone coverage while he also delivers the versatility to provide Minnesota with the option of deploying him outside or in the slot - although there is an increasing likelihood that he will operate primarily as an inside weapon.

The combination of his strengths and his opportunity within Minnesota's receiving arsenal should propel him into a sizable role. Addison’s prospects of functioning as a productive starter for the Vikings this season also present fantasy managers with a viable option at the 1.04 during drafts in 1QB dynasty leagues and he can also be secured at 1.07 in Superflex leagues – depending on the flow of each particular rookie draft. He also emerges as a receiver to prioritize at the beginning of Round 8 in best ball drafts.

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