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The field of 68 is finally out and we are on the brink of the four greatest days in any sport in any country on any continent. The NCAA Tournament is an entirely different animal, and the first four days of this behemoth are the most fun days you'll have watching sports, even if it's by yourself!
There are always a few teams that go belly-up at the most important time of the year. The 2016 Virginia Cavaliers immediately come to mind, but it seems like every year there is at least one highly-seeded team that doesn't make it past the first weekend. That's where I come in. I'm going to try to identify them here.
In this article, I will be providing you with my busts for the 2023 NCAA tournament. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck RotoBallers!
West Region Tournament Busts
(3) Gonzaga
This isn't your uncle's Gonzaga team. Hell, it's not even your older brother's Gonzaga team. Drew Timme might be the most accomplished Gonzaga player in their history (at least on paper), but he doesn't have the talent around him that he did last year. The Bulldogs were blown out by both Texas and Purdue early in the season, which is something that wouldn't have happened in the past.
They also lost a conference game to someone not named St. Mary's (Loyola Marymount) for the first time since 2019-20, and at least that was to a ranked BYU team. Gonzaga is still good. Very good even. They just don't feel like an upper-echelon team right now.
(5) St. Mary's
The Gaels rely too much on outside shooting to go on any kind of tournament run. Add to that a bad draw (VCU, UConn, and Kansas? Yikes!) and the fact that they just got throttled by Gonzaga in the WCC title game, and you have a team ripe for an upset.
South Region Tournament Busts
(3) Baylor
The Bears had their souls sucked from them by Kansas at the Phog in the second half on February 18. The Bears blew a 16-point lead to lose by 16 and they haven't looked the same since. They went 0-for-Kansas that week and lost to Iowa State twice in a row to close out the regular season and their conference tournament.
When Keyontae George isn't hitting his shots, the Bears really struggle to score. Facing three-point assassins Creighton – a team that also has size with Arthur Kaluma and Ryan Kalkbrenner – the Bears likely won't make it out of the first weekend.
(4) Virginia
The Hoos got back on track in the ACC Tournament, but I still don't really trust them. They are a good defensive team, but they often have lapses on offense that can cost them against another strong defensive team in San Diego State. I don't think they'll lose to Furman, but stranger things have happened. UMBC, anyone?
East Region Tournament Busts
(1) Purdue
Purdue is a good team. Zach Edey is a special player, but he honestly doesn't have a lot around him. This team lost to Indiana twice this year because Trayce Jackson-Davis ran circles around Edey and Purdue's guard play is not great. When was the last time that a team made a deep tournament run without good guard play? I'll wait. It's going to take you a while. Illinois-Chicago comes to mind, but when the chips were down, those guards could hit some shots. We haven't seen that from Purdue's guards yet.
Memphis or FAU is going to give Purdue a gigantic headache, and if they do make it to regionals, they get a Duke team that obviously sold their souls to the Devil to get on the run they're on.
(4) Tennessee
The loss of Zakai Zeigler really hurts, but that's not the only fatal flaw for the Vols. They're not strong in the paint, which is why they lost to Kentucky twice this year. Once when the 'Cats were in the middle of a giant free-fall.
It just so happens that Louisiana's best player is 6-foot-11 Jordan Brown. Yeah, Tennessee will be lucky to survive the first day...
Midwest Region Tournament Busts
(1) Houston
Yes, Kelvin Sampson guiding the Cougars to the Final Four in Houston would be the ultimate flex, but that won't happen if Marcus Sasser isn't at 100%. They haven't offered up much on the status of Sasser (nor will they), which doesn't help us much before the tournament.
However, Houston gets a de-facto road game in Birmingham against Auburn in the second round that could wreck them even if Sasser is right. If they make the regionals, they'll have a fairly tough Indiana or Miami team waiting. Not insurmountable, but whichever Texas team makes it to the regional final is going to be a huge problem for the Cougars.
(3) Xavier
The Musketeers are a very fun team to watch, but losing Zach Freemantle is still a massive loss. They have really good guard play, which we all know is great for deep tournament runs, but the Musketeers are often running more roughshod than organized, which is not conducive for a deep tournament run.
Iowa State is good enough to knock them even further out of rhythm than they usually are. If it's not the Cyclones, it's likely a rough-and-tumble Mississippi State team that can still give them issues. My confidence just isn't there for Xavier. They are discombobulated, which makes them fascinating much in the same way that a slinky going down the stairs is. Fun to watch, but the fun only lasts as long as the staircase is. The one for the Musketeers might be pretty short.
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