Free Agent Running Back Preview

Free Agent Running Back Preview for 2023. Which running backs will hit the free-agent market? Where will they go? Who will be a cap casualty? Mike Fanelli takes a look.

The 2023 NFL offseason kicks off next week with free agency. The running back position will be arguably the deepest position this year.

Three running backs received the franchise tag earlier this week. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard will return to their current team next season. This year’s franchise tag price is $10.1 million.

Despite the top three candidates coming off the market before free agency began, there are several talented running backs still available. Let’s look at the top guys available and some potential running backs who could be cap casualties this offseason.

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Running Backs 1-3

1) Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

The veteran running back had zero touchdowns in 2021. However, Sanders had a career-high 11 touchdowns last season, finishing eighth in the NFL. Furthermore, the former Penn State star had his first 1,000-rushing yard season, totaling 1,269 yards in 2022. More importantly, Sanders was the RB13 last season, averaging a career-high 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

Given the team’s salary cap situation, the veteran running back likely won’t return to Philadelphia next season. However, he should find a lucrative deal on the open market. Coming off his first Pro Bowl selection, Sanders is the top running back on the market this year.

2) David Montgomery, Chicago Bears

While he is far from a superstar, Montgomery has been a consistent player for the Bears and fantasy players. The former Iowa State star has rushed for at least 800 yards in all four years of his career. Furthermore, he had 30 scrimmage touchdowns in 60 career games. Despite playing behind a shaky offensive line, Montgomery averaged four yards per rushing attempt in his career.

Fantasy players never loved the idea of drafting Montgomery. Yet, the veteran running back had a top-five finish in 2020, averaging 15.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he never finished lower than the RB25 in any year of his career. Reportedly the former Iowa State star has played his last game with the Bears. However, Montgomery could improve his fantasy value this offseason, depending on where he lands in free agency.

3) Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions

Williams was never a fantasy star before last season. The veteran running back averaged 7.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game before the 2022 season. Yet, Williams finished last year as the RB8, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game, a career-high. Not only did the veteran have his first career 1,000-rushing-yard season, but Williams led the league with 17 rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, he broke the franchise record for rushing touchdowns in a season.

While the veteran had a career year in 2022, Williams wants to remain in Detroit. Fantasy players should feel confident drafting the former BYU star in 2023, depending on the price. His role last year was encouraging, as D’Andre Swift struggled again with injuries. However, the jump in touchdown production is a concern. After totaling 13 rushing touchdowns over the first 73 games of his career, Williams had 17 last year, something he won’t repeat in 2023.

Running Backs 4-6

4) D’Onta Foreman, Carolina Panthers

Over the first few years of his career, Foreman wasn’t fantasy relevant. However, the former Longhorn made an impact at the end of the 2021 season. Over the final five weeks that year, Foreman was the RB8, averaging 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. After filling in for an injured Derrick Henry, the veteran running back signed a one-year deal with the Panthers last offseason.

Foreman ended last year as the RB35, averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game. However, he took over as the lead running back when Christian McCaffrey got traded. In the 11 games without McCaffrey, Foreman averaged 79.7 rushing yards and 11.4 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had 914 rushing yards, ranking 18th among running backs despite having only 37 yards over the first six weeks of the season. The veteran running back also had a career-high five rushing touchdowns last year.

5) Damien Harris, New England Patriots

Unfortunately, Harris struggled with injuries last season. The veteran running back played only 11 games and left a few early. Furthermore, he lost his starting job to Rhamondre Stevenson. However, fantasy players shouldn’t write Harris off after last year. The former Alabama star averaged 4.4 yards per rushing attempt in 2022, compared to 4.6 in 2021. More importantly, his 2021 numbers were impressive.

Harris was the 2021 version of Williams last season. The veteran running back had a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. He finished second in the league in rushing touchdowns despite being 17th in rushing attempts. Furthermore, he was eighth in the NFL with 55 rushing first downs in 2021. With Stevenson being the feature back in New England, Harris will be elsewhere next season. Hopefully, he is in a role that offers fantasy players top-20 upside.

6) Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs

Despite missing the 2018 and 2019 seasons because of injuries, McKinnon has returned and played the best football of his career lately. In 2021 the former third-round pick had no fantasy value, averaging only 2.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had only 32 touches in 13 games that year. However, McKinnon played a critical role in the playoffs.

After averaging only 2.5 touches per game during the regular season, the veteran running back averaged 11.3 rushing attempts and 4.7 receptions per contest in the postseason. McKinnon then carried that momentum into the 2022 season. He averaged a career-high 9.9 fantasy points per game last season, as the veteran became a go-to target for Patrick Mahomes. McKinnon had 56 receptions on 71 targets for 512 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, all career highs. Hopefully, he re-signs with Kansas City this offseason.

Potential Cap Casualties

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Mixon ended the 2022 season as the RB12, averaging 15 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the numbers are uglier if you dive into them. The star running back scored 53.1 fantasy points and five touchdowns in Week 9 against the Panthers. Mixon had 25.4% of his fantasy points and 55.6% of his touchdowns for the year in that contest. Furthermore, he averaged seven yards per rushing attempt that week.

By comparison, Mixon averaged 12 fantasy points per game and 3.5 yards per rushing attempt for the rest of the year. Furthermore, the veteran scored only four touchdowns in the other 13 games in 2022. Mixon would have ended last year as the RB21 over a 14-game pace at the 12 fantasy points per game average. More importantly, the Bengals want to sign Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins to extensions this offseason. Mixon could become a cap casualty to make those extensions happen.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

While the Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Pollard, that doesn’t necessarily mean the team will release Elliott. The veteran running back isn’t the superstar he was a few years ago. Yet, Zeke is still a capable player, especially around the goal line. He was the RB19 last year, averaging 11.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, last season was the first time Elliott finished outside the top 12 running backs in his career.

Not only was it Zeke’s first not top-12 finish of his career, but the veteran averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. The only reason the former Ohio State star finished as a top 20 running back last year was his 12 rushing touchdowns. He finished fifth in the NFL in that category. Elliott will likely be back in 2023. However, he might have to take a substantial pay cut.

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