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Justin Carter identifies NFL players at the tight end position that disappointed fantasy football managers in 2022 and looks at their fantasy prospects in 2023.
With the 2022 NFL season now in the rearview mirror, it's time to look back and reflect on what happened during a wild NFL season.
Tight end is always a tough position to project for fantasy. This season, the gap between the top tight end, Travis Kelce, and the rest of the tight end world was about as big as it has ever been. Of course, this gap was aided by some hyped tight ends just not playing well.
Below, we'll be looking at the biggest tight end busts of the 2022 NFL season. We'll be judging players based on their per-game finish in half-PPR formats.
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Darren Waller - Las Vegas Raiders - TE10
Injuries limited Waller to nine games, which was why he was only TE28 overall. But because Darren Waller is Darren Waller, he should have been giving you top five production during the nine games he did play, right?
Nope. Waller works out to the TE10 spot in PPG, which is not what we expected. He was outscored by Evan Engram and David Njoku.
What was one of the biggest changes for Waller this year, aside from the injury? The addition of Davante Adams. Adding a top-tier receiver to the Raiders took away from Waller's role. His 43.1 yards per game were a pretty big drop from his 60.5 yards per game the year before. Per AddMoreFunds, his target share fell to 15.7% this season, down from 23.5% last year.
There was some thought that an improved offense (thanks to the addition of Adams) would benefit the other weapons in Vegas as well. That didn't happen, and the season ended with quarterback Derek Carr benched.
2023 Bounce Back?
Things have to improve next season for Waller, who is under contract through 2026 and doesn't have an easy out for his contract until 2024, right? Maybe. The Raiders will have someone else under center, though we aren't sure yet who it'll be, and Waller will be another year older. If we go into 2023 thinking of him as a low-end TE1 option instead of a high-end one, then I think we'll be pleased with what he does next season.
Dalton Schultz - Dallas Cowboys - TE12
In 2021, Schultz was targeted 104 times, catching 78 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. In 2022, those numbers fell across the board, down to 89 targets, 57 catches, 577 yards, and five touchdowns. These are still decent numbers, but Schultz didn't improve on his 2021 numbers, something that a lot of people were expecting based on how high he was being drafted.
One difference? The structure of the Cowboys offense. In 2021 when Schultz had his breakout, the Cowboys ranked sixth in the NFL in pass attempts with 647. Last year, they fell to 19th in that category, with 556 pass attempts. The emergence of Tony Pollard allowed the team to keep the ball on the ground more, and that led to fewer receiving opportunities across the board. Add in that CeeDee Lamb saw an expected increase in targets—from 120 in 2021 to 156 last year—and you can see how Schultz was just squeezed out.
2023 Bounce Back?
Schultz is a solid tight end, but he doesn't have the physical gifts to be elite. His production will always be a product of the offense. With Mike McCarthy taking over play calling next season, I really don't know what to expect with Schultz. Back in his Green Bay years, McCarthy wasn't really known for an offense that got the tight end involved. Schultz is probably a low-end TE1 for 2023.
Cole Kmet - Chicago Bears - TE16
Because of health, Kmet finished as the overall TE7, but that really just shows why we need to talk about per-game production over season-long production as Kmet didn't have a season worthy of being called the TE7, even if that's technically right.
Kmet played all 17 games but finished with significantly fewer targets than he had the year before, dropping from 93 down to 69. His yardage total fell from 612 to 544. The one thing that he did better last year was find the end zone, as he went from scoring zero touchdowns in 2021 to seven in 2022.
That touchdown number almost feels like a bad sign to me. Over the first 137 targets of Kmet's career, he scored two touchdowns. On 69 targets last year, he scored seven. Is that sustainable? He already had a disappointing season with those seven scoring plays factored in. Is he even playable if he isn't scoring?
Looking at his game log, Kmet had two games with over 50 receiving yards, and five or more receptions just three times. And the touchdowns mostly all came in one spurt as he had five of them over a three-game stretch mid-season.
2023 Bounce Back?
The Bears will almost certainly bring in more weapons for Justin Fields (or for Bryce Young, if they decide to go QB at 1.01 in the NFL Draft.) That further complicates the outlook for Kmet. I think I'm officially out on the former Notre Dame pass catcher at this point.
Kyle Pitts - Atlanta Falcons - TE20
Jordan Akins scored 0.3 more half-PPR points per game than Kyle Pitts did. Honestly, that should just be this whole section here, that one sentence. Kyle Pitts, the most hyped tight end in recent draft classes, scored fewer fantasy points per game than Jordan Akins. He also scored fewer than Juwan Johnson and Greg Dulcich, if we really want to highlight how disappointing the year was for Pitts.
I understand that injuries contributed to this, as he played just 10 games and was clearly not always at 100% when he was on the field. Still, Kyle Pitts was supposed to be THE guy. You don't draft a tight end fourth overall if you don't think he'll be a star.
After his rookie year, it looked like he would be a star. While he found the end zone just once, he had 1,026 yards as a rookie. But his numbers plummeted this season. As a rookie, he averaged 60.4 receiving yards per game. This season? 35.6. His overall numbers falling makes sense considering he played seven fewer games, but that yards per game number is pretty damning.
Of course, the structure of the Falcons' offense factored into this. Only one NFL team threw fewer passes than the Falcons this year. It's hard to produce when your team doesn't throw.
2023 Bounce Back?
Kyle Pitts will be better in 2023 than he was in 2022. I have no doubt about that. But until we know who'll start under center for the Falcons, I don't want to really speculate about how high to be on Pitts. If it's Desmond Ridder, then I don't have super high hopes. If the team brings in a proven veteran, then I'll probably buy back in on Pitts in 2023. He has the talent to be a top-five tight end; he just isn't in a good spot right now to fulfill that talent.
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