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With just six of tonight’s 11 games posted, Kings-Bucks is the only game listed that’s projected to be above 230 points. We will talk about that later in this article, but waiting until Pacers-Timberwolves, Warriors-Jazz, and Thunder-Grizzlies get posted will only make your decision process easier. Monkey Knife Fight already doesn’t offer the best options to bet on, so taking out unnecessary risk whenever you can won’t hurt.
There are three players making a splash more than anyone else in the league right now. Jerami Grant, Zion Williamson, and Anthony Davis. All three, within the last week, have shown proof of being able to burst through any potential ceiling built for them. Since only Williamson is playing Wednesday and the Pelicans are facing a frontcourt of Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, Santi Aldama, and Brandon Clarke, it’s only fair to assume that Zion hitting near 30-points, grabbing near-10-rebounds, or hitting the over on assists is the least of what he’ll do tonight.
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SAC @ MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 31.5 Points – De’Aaron Fox (SAC) LESS 21.5 Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo is on a seven-game streak where he’s scored 30-points or more and the Sacramento Kings are winning games. Also known in Californian as 'lighting the beam.' This is the recipe you look for when taking a ridiculous over. Sacramento has Domantas Sabonis manning the paint, but against a one-of-a-kind player like Antetokounmpo you need a true paint protector. Milwaukee’s scoring shouldn’t be in jeopardy and defenses can barely stop Antetokoumpo as it is.
De’Aaron Fox putting up 22-points wouldn’t be a problem if the Kings weren’t playing so well. The scoring is spread-out and no one player is carrying all the weight. Malik Monk has the potential to end the season as a reliable scoring option and this improvement is taking from Fox’s stats. Fox is such a unique player that he will produce every night regardless, but the Kings aren’t desperate for production like they were and they actually offer some reliable offense outside of Fox needing to do everything himself. As much as we want Fox to do well and enjoy his high-scoring games, they just aren’t needed.
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DET @ NOP
Zion Williamson (NOP) MORE 25.5 Points – Bojan Bogdanovic (DET) MORE 18.5 Points
This bet isn’t really about Zion Williamson because anyone hitting under on this game is betting on the Pelicans to win outright and not need Williamson’s scoring, or they just aren’t really sure who this ‘Zion kid’ is and thought MKF NBA looked fun for once. Either way, no one should be taking any Williamson unders until there’s a reason to.
In two of Bojan Bogdanovic’s last four games, he has had at least 30-points without taking more than 16-shots. That type of efficiency goes hand-in-hand with a 21-attempt, 19-point effort the week before, but that’s the glory with shooters. They are streaky and sometimes so streaky that you can actually play into it. Realistically, it’ll be hard for Bogdanovic to continue this trend of taking upwards of 15-shots a game and converting at just below 68% from the field, but 30+ minutes, around 28% Usage and taking 12+ shots a game usually account for more than 19-points.
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ATL @ NYK
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 27.5 Points – Jalen Brunson (NYK) MORE 22.5 Points
Even on night’s where Trae Young doesn’t hit his projected overs, the effort was still there just like it is on most nights. Dejounte Murray allows Young a bit of leniency in just how much he has to do for the Hawks to win games, but Atlanta’s last game against Oklahoma City is a perfect example of how untrue that sentiment really is. Young wasn’t having a great night as it was, and when the Thunder finally got their stuff together, the Hawks had been in ‘relax’ mode for too long and couldn’t snap out of it. Murray did what he could, but they obviously needed any extra scoring and sometimes you just need that slap in the face or ‘loss to the Thunder’ to wake you up.
Jalen Brunson was playing so well at one-point last month that fans were looking at the Mavericks front office in confusion. He’s simmered down as of recently and asking for a 23-point game is asking a lot. Brunson has been playing well, but he’s scored over 20-points once in his last four games and is lining up against one of the best backcourt defenders in the league. The Knicks don’t have the options to shy away from just letting Brunson shoot tonight, so this is looking like a 'he has the chances but couldn't convert' kind of night.
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WAS @ CHI
DeMar DeRozan (CHI) MORE 25.5 Points – Kristaps Porzingis (WAS) MORE 24.5 Points
DeMar DeRozan has struggled his past two outings, but playing against the Wizards defense provides for an ideal rebound game. DeRozan is currently on a two-game skid of scoring under 20-points, but Zach LaVine needs all the help he can get so that should change fast and soon. Even if LaVine carries the scoring and usage once again, DeRozan should have the path of least resistance playing against the Wizards forwards.
Kristaps Porzingis is in a much safer position only because of how well he is playing. His role in the offense is cemented in with at least 10-15 shots a game and until someone else steps up, Porzingis is going to be the guy Washington looks to feed if he is hitting at any capacity. He took a season-high 25 attempts last game and only scored 27-points in a loss to the Lakers. Not a great outcome, but a clear shift in the Wizards offensive priorities. Porzingis may not want to take all the shots, but the fact that he can is huge when you’re dealing with a slightly stagnant offense.
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