Finding Tight End Breakouts for Fantasy Football – An Extensive In-Season Tight End Review Part 2

Robert looks for fantasy football tight end breakouts heading into Week 10 (2022). He uses advanced NFL stats for tight ends to find breakouts and fades.

Now that we are right around the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season, we're going to be looking at tight ends currently ranked between TE3–TE28 in half-PPR PPG to determine how fantasy managers should be valuing these players moving forward. This is a two-part article and the first part came out yesterday and can be found here.

We'll be looking at their per-game averages of targets, receptions, and receiving yards. We'll also be reviewing their red zone utilization, air yards, and their routes run. All of these statistics will give us a better idea of who these players are, what they offer, and will help us accurately assess their value.

Tight end is always a difficult position to figure out, especially in the offseason and we often see a few players come out of nowhere to be quality starters. So let's get started and check out what we've learned so far this season.

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Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – TE15 (6.5 PPG)

Kyle Pitts is such an enigma. He could be great. He is great, but he’s without question being held back. Among tight ends with at least 20 targets, he’s fourth with a 12.4-yard per reception average. He’s second in air yards per game with just over 81, only Mark Andrews is better. His average depth of target is 14.4, which is the highest mark at the position. He’s eighth with a yard-per-route run average of 1.86. His target per route run is 29%, which is second at the position. Based on those utilization numbers, this guy should be smashing and yet he’s now.....at this point, we all know the reason.

Kyle Pitts, this transcendent tight end talent, is just 27th in routes run per game. The backup tight end for the Raiders, Foster Moreau, runs more routes per game than Pitts. Cole Kmet for the Bears (!!!) runs more routes per game than he does. Juwan Johnson, Hunter Henry, and Robert Tonyan. All of these guys run more routes per game than Kyle Pitts.

The Falcons average just over 22 pass attempts per game, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. Despite the low number of routes run and pass attempts per game, Pitts still ranks 12th among tight ends with 5.6 targets per game. If the passing volume in Atlanta would ever increase, Pitts could absolutely hit that insane ceiling many had for him this season. At this point, however, we need to be realistic. That’s not going to happen. The Falcons aren’t going to deviate from their system. Due to the low passing volume, Pitts needs to continue to be treated as a backend TE1 due to his insane talent level.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars – TE16 (6.5 PPG)

Prior to Week 9, Evan Engram had played at least 74% of the team’s snaps for the last six weeks. His lowest snaps played was 67% back in Week 2. He left Week 9’s contest early due to a back injury and played just over 50% of the team’s snaps. Due to the injury last week, to get the most accurate assessment of Engram’s season, we’ll be looking at Weeks 1–8.

During that time span, Engram was tied for 10th in targets per game with six. He was on pace to finish with 102 targets. He was also tied for 11th in receptions per game and 12th in yards per game with just over 41 a game. He’s also earned five end-zone targets. Despite the positive scoring utilization, he has just one touchdown to show for it, a number we’d expect to be higher given his overall and end-zone target volume.

From Weeks 1–8, he ranked ninth in air yards per game at tight end with 44.5 and eighth in routes run per game with just over 28 per game. Even more appealing is Engram was really starting to heat up. He was coming over from New York, so it’s reasonable that he started a bit slower, but in the last four weeks (5-8), Engram had 29 targets, 19 receptions, 231 yards, and one touchdown.

During that span, he was second in targets, tied for fifth in receptions, and fourth in yards per game. He was also Trevor Lawrence’s most-targeted player over that span. The injury is believed to be minor and he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Engram has the utilization to be a backend TE1 and if he does experience some positive touchdown regression, he could surprise in the second half of the season.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – TE17 (6.3 PPG)

Darren Waller was just put on IR yesterday due to his recurring hamstring injury. Due to this, he won't be eligible to return until Week 14. This will give him one week to shake off the rust before fantasy playoffs in Week 15 or two weeks if you were able to secure the first-round bye. If he's able to come back before the playoffs to give fantasy managers a look before having to put him into their starting lineups, there are at least some reasons for optimism.

Waller has only played four games in the first four weeks of the season. In those four weeks, which includes Week 2 where he played just 54% of the snaps, he averaged 6.2 targets per game. This is tied for the eighth-most with Dallas Goedert among tight ends. He averaged four receptions per game, tied for 11th-most, and 43.8 yards per game, tied for ninth-most. Despite missing four games, Waller is still tied for the 10th-most red zone targets this season with seven, once again tied with Goedert. All good utilization signs.

He also was averaging just over 68 air yards per game, which is the fifth-most this season. His 10.9-yard average depth of target indicates the Raiders were using Waller down the field, which comes with more upside. Tight ends who work so close to the line of scrimmage are typically underwhelming for fantasy without touchdowns or high target totals. He also was running just under 34 routes per game, which would be the fourth-highest number among tight ends this season.

Everything about Waller's utilization in those first four weeks is that of a top-10 tight end. His PPG average does not reflect that, but that's partly because he only found the end zone one time in four weeks. Touchdowns are such a make-or-break statistic when it comes to tight ends, but based on his overall and red zone target numbers, we would have expected positive touchdown regression in his future. Waller is a tough gamble because we don't know when he'll be back or if he'll be fully healthy when he finally does make it back. His return will also be bumping up with the start of fantasy playoffs, which is not ideal. However, the upside he has based on his early utilization could make for a good stash for a playoff team weak at tight end.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers – TE18 (6.3 PPG)

Robert Tonyan is a touchdown-dependent TE2 who has just one touchdown this season. He has been held to 40 or fewer yards in eight out of nine games this season. He has just one half-PPR double-digit performance this season and five games with three or fewer receptions. The floor is close to zero and the upside is significantly limited to volume concerns and the awfulness of the entire offense.

He’s 17th among tight ends with 5.1 targets, tied for ninth with 4.2 receptions, and 17th in yards per game with just over 34. He’s 21st with just under 27 air yards per game and a ceiling-depleting average depth of target of just 5.3 yards. He’s 26th among tight ends in routes run per game.

He’s nothing more than a low-level streamer in even the best of matchups. Fantasy managers are better leaving Tonyan on waivers this season. Even with the depleted receiving group in Green Bay, Tonyan is unlikely to rise to fantasy relevance. The volume and workload simply are not there.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams – TE19 (6.2 PPG)

We’ve got two different Tyler Higbees this season so far. The one from Weeks 1–5 and the one from Weeks 6–9 and they could not be any more different. Good Higbee averaged 9.6 targets per game over the first five weeks of the season. No one was better in that regard. He averaged 6.6 receptions per game, which was tied for first with Travis Kelce. He averaged 58 yards per game, which was the fourth-best. He also was tied for the third-most routes run per game with 33. Unfortunately, since he did not find the end zone at all, his PPG average was impacted. During this span, he was the TE7 with a 9.1 half-PPR PPG average. Overall, very good.

From Weeks 6–9, he’s averaging three targets per game, which is tied for 33rd among tight ends. He’s averaged one reception per game, good for 47th best, and 7.3 yards per game, which is 50th among tight ends during that span. If you’re wondering why the drastic change, look no further than the number of routes he’s been running. In Weeks 1-5, he ran 33 routes per game. Over his past three games, that number has dropped by more than 50%, down to 15.7, which is 34th among tight ends.

Still no touchdowns either. Chasing his points from early in the season is chasing his workload that is no longer there. Higbee has never been that good of a talent and needed insane volume just to get to TE7. With that volume all but evaporated, Higbee can be sent to and ignored on the waiver wire.

Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – TE23 (5.8 PPG)

2022 Dawson Knox meet 2021 Robert Tonyan. This was a comparison many fantasy analysts made in the offseason and it was an easy comparison to make. Nine weeks into the season and you can basically copy and paste the Spider-Man meme to it. Knox is running the ninth-most routes per game with just over 27.5 a game, so he’s out there. He’s doing stuff. None of it is translating towards anything close to resembling fantasy success.

His target per route run rate is at just 17%. He’s 26th in targets per game with 3.9, 23rd in receptions per game with 2.9, and 28th in yards per game with 26.1. After finishing with nine touchdowns last year, he’s on pace for less than five this season. Despite the electric Buffalo offense which is frequently in the red zone, Knox has just five red zone targets in seven games this season, which doesn’t breed confidence that his touchdown luck will improve this season.

He’s a touchdown-dependent TE2 who will stay on the streaming radar on positive matchups more so because of his offense and quarterback than anything Dawson Knox does. It’s always worrisome when the reasons you like a particular player have nothing to do with the actual player. With Josh Allen’s injury, Knox can especially be ignored.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – TE25 (5.4 PPG)

Anyone who has watched the Bears' offense can tell a difference between the first three weeks of the season and the last six weeks. The passing volume has increased from 15 attempts per game to 23.67. The passing yards per game have increased from 99 yards per game to 171 and the passing touchdowns per game have increased from 0.67 to 1.33 per game. Because of this, we’ll be looking at Kmet and how he ranks among his fellow tight ends from Weeks 4-9.

The increase in passing volume hasn’t helped Kmet as much as fantasy managers may have liked. He’s tied for 32nd in targets per game with just 3.5 over the last six weeks, tied for 22nd in receptions per game at 2.8, and 27th in receiving yards per game at 26.7. Despite this limited utilization, Kmet is tied for second with three touchdowns over this span. Be careful about chasing touchdowns.

He’s averaging just over 21 air yards per game and running just under 24 routes per game, which ranks 22nd among tight ends. Despite the increase in passing volume for Chicago, over their last six games, Kmet still has just one double-digit game, which is when he found the end zone twice. Even in the other game, he finished with just 8.1 half-PPR points. The floor is still extremely low for Kmet and the touchdown potential is still very limited.

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE26 (5.3 PPG)

Cade Otton’s playing time has coincided with Cameron Brate’s injuries. In Weeks 1 and 3, Otton did not play at all. In Weeks 2, 4, and 6, Brate left early in both games, which left Otton filling in as the primary tight end for half of the contest. However, in Weeks 5 and 7–9, Otton acted as the primary tight end for the majority of the game. In these four contests, Otton had snap shares of 81% at the low end all the way up to 93%. To fully understand his fantasy value, we’ll be looking specifically at these weeks. Moving forward, fantasy managers will need to stay up to date on Brate’s status, but based on Otton’s play, we should expect the rookie to remain the starter.

In our four-game sample, Weeks 5 and 7–9, Otton averaged 5.8 targets per game, which ranked 13th among tight ends. He was ninth in receptions per game with 4.2 and ninth in receiving yards per game with 47.5. All of those numbers are very promising for the rookie, but what is even more important for his fantasy value is the opportunity he was given. He was running just over 42 routes per game during this span. This was the second-highest among all tight ends and he averaged an 81% route run participation rate.

Despite the minimal playing time throughout the entire season, Otton has still earned a very impressive number of red zone targets. He is tied for sixth on the season with eight red zone targets. He has just one touchdown, but his utilization indicates we should expect more during the second half of the season, as long as he maintains his starting role.

In his four games as the starter, Otton has finished with 7.3 half-PPR points, 8.4, 2.5, and 15.3. He earned at least five targets in each of those four games. As long as he maintains his role as the starter, which will be something fantasy managers will need to track with Brate now returning to practice, his workload and utilization should keep him in the high-end TE2 conversation.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys – TE28 (4.7 PPG)

Looking at Dalton Schultz's PPG won't get anyone excited. 4.7 half-PPR PPG is not appealing whatsoever, but we need to remember Dak Prescott missed Weeks 2–6. It makes the most sense to look at what Schultz has done with Prescott behind center, which means we only have a three-game sample, which isn't ideal, but we also have the entire 2021 season as a point of reference as well.

During that three-game sample, Schultz played 100% of the snaps in Week 1, but then played under 70% in Weeks 7 and 8, which is not close to his typical snap percentage, so while the three-game sample is small, it's also is with Schultz not playing the typical number of snaps that he otherwise would be expected to play.

In this three-game sample size, Schultz averaged seven targets per game. This would be the fifth-most among tight ends this season. In those three games with Dak, despite playing fewer than 70% of the snaps in two games, he racked up 18 receptions, good for an average of six per game. On the season, only Kelce's 7.1 reception average is better. Schultz also averaged 61.7 yards per game, which would rank third among tight ends. Based on this three-game sample, Schultz would be on pace for 119 targets, 102 receptions, and 1,049 yards.

There are some obvious dangers when looking at a small sample, but he did have 104 targets, 78 receptions, and 808 yards last season working behind CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. With Cooper now gone, many expected Schultz to operate as the No. 2 target in this Dallas offense. That outcome is still completely in play during the second half of the season.

With Prescott back under center and as Schultz continues to get healthier resulting in his snap count ticking up, Schultz could yet live up to his offseason hype. It might just come in one half of football, but if he was dropped in your league and you're looking for a tight end, I'd advise picking him up. His target numbers with Prescott give him top-12 potential for the rest of the season.

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