RADIO
Now that we are right around the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season, we're going to be looking at tight ends currently ranked between TE3–TE28 in half-PPR PPG to determine how fantasy managers should be valuing these players moving forward.
We'll be looking at their per-game averages of targets, receptions, and receiving yards. We'll also be reviewing their red zone utilization, air yards, and their routes run. All of these statistics will give us a better idea of who these players are, what they offer, and will help us accurately assess their value.
Tight end is always a difficult position to figure out, especially in the offseason and we often see a few players come out of nowhere to be quality starters. So let's get started and check out what we've learned so far this season.
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Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles – TE3 (10.5 PPG)
Dallas Goedert is tied for the third-best half-PPR PPG average among tight ends this season, but he’s not doing it on volume. His 6.2 targets per game are ranked just ninth at the position, however, he averages five receptions per game, which ranks fifth. He’s been one of the most efficient tight ends this year and there’s no reason to expect that to change. He’s averaging 65.1 yards per game, which puts him on pace for 1,106 yards.
He only has two touchdowns. He’s tied for the 10th most red zone targets among tight ends, but has yet to generate a single end zone target. His average depth of target is just 5.3 yards, which leaves a little something to be desired, but no tight end has been better than Goedert after the catch. He is averaging a ridiculous 8.7 yards after the catch per reception. He’ll need that efficiency to continue because he’s only running 27 routes per game, which ranks just 16th at the position. His 2.42 yards per route run is better than Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
Fantasy managers should continue treating Goedert as a top-five tight end for the rest of the season. The one downfall for him is the lack of volume, both in terms of targets per game and routes run, but he is playing so well right now, it hasn’t stopped him. We should expect to see some positive touchdown regression in the second half of the season.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings – TE4 (10.5 PPG)
In his first game with Minnesota, T.J. Hockenson racked up nine targets. In his last seven games with Detroit, he was averaging 6.1 targets per game. Fantasy managers need to be careful about overreacting to a single-game sample size, but his first game with Minnesota was very positive. His 23.1% target share was five points higher than his 18.1% target share in Detroit.
He had 70 receiving yards in his first game as a Viking and averaged 55 yards with the Lions. His 50 air yards with Minnesota was mostly in line with his 46.9 average in Detroit. The one difference was in his average depth of target. It was at 7.6 in Detroit and it fell to 5.6 in his first game with Minnesota, but again, one game sample size. Another difference and this is a significant boost to his fantasy value, but he ran 36 routes in his first game with Minnesota. His average in Detroit was 28.6.
Adam Thielen has been decent this year, but he’s no doubt taken a step back. Father Time will do that to you. Hockenson has a chance to become Kirk Cousins’ No. 2 target and at worst, he’ll split that role with Thielen in a much more pass-heavy offense. He should be valued as a mid- TE1 the rest of the way.
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints – TE5 (10.3 PPG)
Sell. Sell. Sell. There is nothing about his PPG average that is sustainable based on the workload that he’s getting. It’s not even close. Buying Taysom Hill is the utmost definition of chasing yesterday’s points. Even worse than that, it’s chasing yesterday’s touchdowns. 41.6% of his fantasy points came in one game. 48.5% of his total points have come from touchdowns. He plays 16 snaps a game. Any fantasy relevant tight end will have almost 10 or more snaps played than that at half time of their games. Trevon Wesco plays the same number of snaps as Hill does. If you’re wondering who that is, that’s kind of the point.
He averages less than a target per game. He averages two yards receiving per game. He runs between 4-5 routes per game. He’s currently averaging five carries per game. That’s fewer than Isiah Pacheco and Chase Edmonds. He has seven red zone carries. That’s fewer than one per game. His seven red zone carries are tied with Mark Ingram and Isiah Pacheco. He has just four carries inside the 10-yard line, which is one every other game. His four such carries are tied with Isiah Pacheco. So, my question is, would you start Isiah Pacheco as your starting tight end? No? Me neither.
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos – TE6 (10.1 PPG)
Since returning from IR, Greg Dulcich has been absolutely fantastic for fantasy managers and there are plenty of reasons to expect the good times to keep rolling. In three games since his activation, he’s averaging 5.7 targets, four receptions, and just under 61 yards per game. Granted he has a small sample size working in his favor, but his receiving yards per game would rank fifth-most among tight ends this year, and had he played all 17 games, he would finish with 1,032 yards.
One of the most promising stats for Dulcich is how the Broncos are using him. Typically, most tight ends are used close to the line of scrimmage, but not the rookie. He is averaging 74.7 air yards per game (third-most) and has an average depth of target of 13.2 yards. He’s also running a bunch of routes, 29 of them a game to be precise. This ranks eighth-most among tight ends.
Dulcich is getting plenty of opportunity in regard to his routes run and he’s making the most of them too. His 2.09 yards per route run is very promising. If his targets tick up a little bit, Dulcich could really make some noise down in the second half of the season. As it stands, he looks like a top-10 tight end the rest of the way.
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals – TE7 (10.0 PPG)
Zach Ertz’s volume has carried the day thus far. His 78 targets rank second among the position and his 7.8 targets per game are third behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. There’s reason to be slightly concerned for Ertz down the home stretch, however.
During the first three weeks of the season, Ertz averaged 8.7 targets per game. This was without Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins. Since that time, his targets have dropped to 7.3. Don’t get me wrong, that’s still really good. But in Weeks 4-6, Hopkins was still suspended and from Weeks 7-9, Marquise Brown has been injured. Brown is eligible to come off of IR in Week 11. Rondale Moore missed Weeks 1-3.
Once the Cardinals have Moore, Brown, and Hopkins all on the field, we can expect Ertz’s targets to drop even further. Ertz is averaging just 8.6 yards per catch, which explains why despite his elite volume, he’s just 10th in yards per game with 43.8. Being third in targets per game, but 10th in yards per game is a significant concern when there are real reasons to doubt whether his target numbers can stay as high as they are.
The one positive Ertz has going for him is the fact that the Cardinals have had to play catch-up on the scoreboard almost all game, every day. This has led to Ertz averaging just over 36 routes per game, which is second to only Kelce. Fantasy managers can continue to fire him up as a solid TE1 until Brown returns, but once Kyler Murray has his full cabinetry of weapons, it might be time to move Ertz down into backend TE1, high-end TE2 territory.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers – TE8 (9.3 PPG)
George Kittle missed a few games early and we all remember the memes about him being used as a left tackle, but his utilization has been strong this season. His route participation is at a healthy 76%. Fantasy managers would prefer that number to be higher than 80%, but with Kittle's elite talent, 76% is good enough for him to be a difference-maker.
He's averaging the seventh-most targets per game with 6.5, the sixth-most receptions per game at 4.7, and the seventh-most receiving yards at 53.2 yards per game. Surprisingly, Kittle is averaging just 37 air yards per game. For as athletic as he is, to see this number so low certainly is not ideal. His average depth of target reflects his low air yard total at just 5.7 yards. Despite Kittle's strong route participation rate numbers, he's averaging just the 11th-most routes per game at just over 27 per game.
The name George Kittle carries a ton of value and he'll no doubt have 1–2 of his epic ceiling games sooner than later, but with the addition of Christian McCaffrey, there are some concerns as to how his addition will impact the target totals for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kittle. Due to Kittle's strong name value and his good, but not great utilization numbers, it might be worth seeing if you're able to trade Kittle for a tight end plus package. He should be valued as a mid-tier TE1, but one with an extremely high ceiling that very few other tight ends can reach.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns – TE9 (8.9 PPG)
David Njoku suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 7, which resulted in him playing just over 61% of the team's snaps. Prior to that contest, Njoku had not been below 79% of the team's snaps. In the first six weeks of the season, Njoku was making a name for himself, embarking on what appeared to be a true breakout campaign for him.
He was tied for 10th with 5.8 targets per game, tied for 6th with 4.5 receptions per game, and the fourth-most receiving yards per game at 57.8. He was on pace for 77 receptions and 983 yards. Despite missing part of Week 7 and Weeks 8–9, Njoku is still tied for the sixth-most red zone targets among tight ends with eight, five of which came in the end zone. Despite this strong utilization around the end zone, Njjoku had just one touchdown in the first seven weeks. Based on this, fantasy managers should be expecting some positive touchdown regression once Njoku returns.
Njoku was being used frequently in the passing game, with a route participation rate of just over 76%. Njoku is likely to return in Week 11 and coming off a high ankle sprain could result in him being brought along slowly. However, once he's up to speed he should return to being a quality TE1. The return of Deshaun Watson could also increase the team's passing volume and efficiency.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers – TE10 (8.4 PPG)
In Pat Freiermuth's first four games of the season, he played in over 73% of the team's snaps. He left early in Week 5 due to a concussion and played just 48% of the team's snaps. He missed Week 6 and returned in Week 7 to play just 58% of the team's snaps. Then in Week 8, he played 61% of the team's snaps. Despite missing parts of his last three games, Freiermuth is still averaging 6.9 targets per game, which is the fifth-highest among tight ends. He's averaging 4.6 receptions and 52.4 yards per game.
He's averaging 56.3 air yards per game and has an average depth of target at 8.2 yards. Both are good, but not great numbers. He's averaging just over 27 routes per game, which leaves a little bit to be desired. The same is true for his route participation rate which is at just 64.1%. However, we need to remember that Freiermuth didn't play a full allotment of snaps in his last three games.
Unfortunately, due to the Steelers' terrible offense, the scoring upside for the Muth is extremely low. He has just five red zone targets on the season, which is tied for 17th among tight ends. Freiermuth is best viewed as a backend TE1 or a high-end TE2 based on matchup. Due to his strong volume, he's a solid floor play, but the upside is limited.
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers – TE11 (7.8 PPG)
Much like Zach Ertz, Gerald Everett has benefited from the injuries to other (better) teammates. The injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have resulted in Justin Herbert having to depend more on Everett than he otherwise would have. The other thing that has helped Everett is just how pass-heavy the Chargers have been. Both elements have played a part in Everett's strong first half of the season, but there are reasons to question if he can replicate that success. For one, Allen and Williams are getting closer to a return and once that happens, he'll fall from No. 2 on the target hierarchy to fourth and that could be a death sentence for his fantasy value.
As it stands right now, Everett is averaging 6.6 targets per game (6th-most), 4 receptions per game (tied for 11th-most), and 42.6 yards per game (11th-most). He has just two touchdowns on the season, but his 10 red zone targets, which are tied for the fourth-most among tight ends indicate Everett has underperformed in that category. While normally we'd expect positive regression, with the eventual return of Williams and Allen, we should actually be expecting those number of red zone targets to decrease as Herbert gets his true No. 1 and No. 2 targets back on the field.
Everett is running 30 routes per game, which is the seventh-most among tight ends, but his route participation rate is at just 64.5%. He's also benefited from fellow tight end Donald Parham, who is currently on IR. Everett can be viewed as a backend TE1 until the eventual return of Allen and Williams. At that point, Everett will become more of a touchdown-dependent TE2.
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets – TE12 (7.4 PPG)
Tyler Conklin should be completely off the redraft radar. From Weeks 4–9, in which Zach Wilson was behind center, Conklin is averaging just 4.2 targets, 2.4 receptions, and 24.8 yards per game. The scoring upside is almost non-existent as the former Viking has just three red zone targets on the season. The passing volume in New York right now with Wilson under center is extremely low. Conklin is not someone that needs to be rostered. His PPG average is being inflated by those first three weeks with Joe Flacco. Conklin is barely even on the streaming radar.
Hayden Hurst, Cincinnati Bengals – TE13 (6.8 PPG)
The Cincinnati Bengals have been extremely pass-heavy in recent weeks, which is absolutely needed for Hayden Hurst's fantasy value. This is especially true once Ja'Marr Chase returns. Reports indicate he is eyeing a return following their Week 10 bye. Once Chase is back on the field, Hurst will fall back down the target hierarchy. With Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and on occasion, Joe Mixon all ahead of Hurst on the target hierarchy, it will be extremely difficult for Hurst to be a consistent fantasy scorer.
He's averaging just 5.3 targets per game, putting him on pace for 92 targets for the season. Hurst has had several factors working in his favor this season. Tee Higgins was in and out of the lineup early in the season due to concussions and missed their Week 5 contest entirely. Now, the Bengals have been without Chase for the last three games. Both player absences have freed up Hurst to be more involved in the passing game.
The high-volume passing attack in Cincinnati and the high upside with Joe Burrow will keep Hurst in play as a streamer in the right matchups, but he's not someone fantasy managers should be counting on a weekly basis. He should be viewed as a touchdown-dependent TE2.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – TE14 (6.5 PPG)
Touchdowns are fickle. Mike Gesicki is the perfect example of just how fickle they are. Last year, while competing for targets with pretty much just Jaylen Waddle and earning 109 targets, he finished with just one touchdown. This year, competing with superstar Tyreek Hill and a better version of Waddle, Gesicki is on pace for just 63 targets, but somehow already has four touchdowns. Four touchdowns on 32 targets. Don't chase touchdowns.
He has 40.8% of his half-PPR fantasy points coming from touchdowns. While we shouldn't expect him to score anywhere close to the rate he's shown in the first nine weeks of the season, he does have eight red zone targets this season, which is tied for sixth-most among tight ends. However, he's averaging just 3.7 targets per game. There's just no way anyone can be even remotely consistent with that kind of weekly volume.
He has six games with fewer than five points. The other three games, you guessed it, are when he scored all four touchdowns. He is, by definition, the most touchdown-dependent tight end there is. He has four games with two or fewer targets, which is 44% of his games played. Gesicki shouldn't be anywhere near starting lineups right now. Or rosters in general. He cannot even be viewed as a streamer.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – TE15 (6.5 PPG)
Kyle Pitts is such an enigma. He could be great. He is great, but he’s without question being held back. Among tight ends with at least 20 targets, he’s fourth with a 12.4-yard per reception average. He’s second in air yards per game with just over 81, only Mark Andrews is better. His average depth of target is 14.4, which is the highest mark at the position. He’s eighth with a yard-per-route run average of 1.86. His target per route run is 29%, which is second at the position. Based on those utilization numbers, this guy should be smashing and yet he’s not and at this point, we all know the reason.
Kyle Pitts, this transcendent tight end talent, is just 27th in routes run per game. The backup tight end for the Raiders, Foster Moreau, runs more routes per game than Pitts. Cole Kmet for the Bears (!!!) runs more routes per game than he does. Juwan Johnson, Hunter Henry, and Robert Tonyan. All of these guys run more routes per game than Kyle Pitts.
The Falcons average just over 22 pass attempts per game, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. Despite the low number of routes run and pass attempts per game, Pitts still ranks 12th among tight ends with 5.6 targets per game. If the passing volume in Atlanta would ever increase, Pitts could absolutely hit that insane ceiling many had for him this season. At this point, however, we need to be realistic. That’s not going to happen. The Falcons aren’t going to deviate from their system. Due to the low passing volume, Pitts needs to continue to be treated as a backend TE1 due to his insane talent level. You just need to accept there will be some duds.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars – TE16 (6.5 PPG)
Prior to Week 9, Evan Engram had played at least 74% of the team’s snaps for the last six weeks. His lowest snaps played was 67% back in Week 2. He left Week 9’s contest early due to a back injury and played just over 50% of the team’s snaps. Due to the injury last week, to get the most accurate assessment of Engram’s season, we’ll be looking at Weeks 1–8.
During that time span, Engram was tied for 10th in targets per game with six. He was on pace to finish with 102 targets. He was also tied for 11th in receptions per game and 12th in yards per game with just over 41 a game. He’s also earned five end-zone targets. Despite the positive scoring utilization, he has just one touchdown to show for it, a number we’d expect to be higher given his overall and end-zone target volume.
From Weeks 1–8, he ranked ninth in air yards per game at tight end with 44.5 and eighth in routes run per game with just over 28 per game. Even more appealing is Engram was really starting to heat up. He was coming over from New York, so it’s reasonable that he started a bit slower, but in the last four weeks (5-8), Engram had 29 targets, 19 receptions, 231 yards, and one touchdown.
During that span, he was second in targets, tied for fifth in receptions, and fourth in yards per game. He was also Trevor Lawrence’s most-targeted player over that span. The injury is believed to be minor and he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Engram has the utilization to be a backend TE1 and if he does experience some positive touchdown regression, he could surprise in the second half of the season.
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders – TE17 (6.3 PPG)
Darren Waller was just put on IR yesterday due to his recurring hamstring injury. Due to this, he won't be eligible to return until Week 14. This will give him one week to shake off the rust before fantasy playoffs in Week 15 or two weeks if you were able to secure the first-round bye. If he's able to come back before the playoffs to give fantasy managers a look before having to put him into their starting lineups, there are at least some reasons for optimism.
Waller has only played four games in the first four weeks of the season. In those four weeks, which includes Week 2 where he played just 54% of the snaps, he averaged 6.2 targets per game. This is tied for the eighth-most with Dallas Goedert among tight ends. He averaged four receptions per game, tied for 11th-most, and 43.8 yards per game, tied for ninth-most. Despite missing four games, Waller is still tied for the 10th-most red zone targets this season with seven, once again tied with Goedert. All good utilization signs.
He also was averaging just over 68 air yards per game, which is the fifth-most this season. His 10.9-yard average depth of target indicates the Raiders were using Waller down the field, which comes with more upside. Tight ends who work so close to the line of scrimmage are typically underwhelming for fantasy without touchdowns or high target totals. He also was running just under 34 routes per game, which would be the fourth-highest number among tight ends this season.
Everything about Waller's utilization in those first four weeks is that of a top-10 tight end. His PPG average does not reflect that, but that's partly because he only found the end zone one time in four weeks. Touchdowns are such a make-or-break statistic when it comes to tight ends, but based on his overall and red zone target numbers, we would have expected positive touchdown regression in his future. Waller is a tough gamble because we don't know when he'll be back or if he'll be fully healthy when he finally does make it back. His return will also be bumping up with the start of fantasy playoffs, which is not ideal. However, the upside he has based on his early utilization could make for a good stash for a playoff team weak at tight end.
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers – TE18 (6.3 PPG)
Robert Tonyan is a touchdown-dependent TE2 who has just one touchdown this season. He has been held to 40 or fewer yards in eight out of nine games this season. He has just one half-PPR double-digit performance this season and five games with three or fewer receptions. The floor is close to zero and the upside is significantly limited to volume concerns and the awfulness of the entire offense.
He’s 17th among tight ends with 5.1 targets, tied for ninth with 4.2 receptions, and 17th in yards per game with just over 34. He’s 21st with just under 27 air yards per game and a ceiling-depleting average depth of target of just 5.3 yards. He’s 26th among tight ends in routes run per game.
He’s nothing more than a low-level streamer in even the best of matchups. Fantasy managers are better leaving Tonyan on waivers this season. Even with the depleted receiving group in Green Bay, Tonyan is unlikely to rise to fantasy relevance. The volume and workload simply are not there. Neither are the scoring opportunities.
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams – TE19 (6.2 PPG)
We’ve got two different Tyler Higbees this season so far. The one from Weeks 1–5 and the one from Weeks 6–9 and they could not be any more different. Good Higbee averaged 9.6 targets per game over the first five weeks of the season. No one was better in that regard. He averaged 6.6 receptions per game, which was tied for first with Travis Kelce. He averaged 58 yards per game, which was the fourth-best. He also was tied for the third-most routes run per game with 33. Unfortunately, since he did not find the end zone at all, his PPG average was impacted. During this span, he was the TE7 with a 9.1 half-PPR PPG average. Overall, very good.
From Weeks 6–9, he’s averaging three targets per game, which is tied for 33rd among tight ends. He’s averaged one reception per game, good for 47th best, and 7.3 yards per game, which is 50th among tight ends during that span. If you’re wondering why the drastic change, look no further than the number of routes he’s been running. In Weeks 1-5, he ran 33 routes per game. Over his past three games, that number has dropped by more than 50%, down to 15.7, which is 34th among tight ends.
Still no touchdowns either. Chasing his points from early in the season is chasing his workload that is no longer there. Higbee has never been that good of a talent and needed insane volume just to get to TE7. With that volume all but evaporated, Higbee can be sent to and ignored on the waiver wire.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – TE23 (5.8 PPG)
2022 Dawson Knox meet 2021 Robert Tonyan. This was a comparison many fantasy analysts made in the offseason and it was an easy comparison to make. Nine weeks into the season and you can basically copy and paste the Spider-Man meme to it. Knox is running the ninth-most routes per game with just over 27.5 a game, so he’s out there. He’s doing stuff. None of it is translating towards anything close to resembling fantasy success.
His target per route run rate is at just 17%. He’s 26th in targets per game with 3.9, 23rd in receptions per game with 2.9, and 28th in yards per game with 26.1. After finishing with nine touchdowns last year, he’s on pace for less than five this season. Despite the electric Buffalo offense which is frequently in the red zone, Knox has just five red zone targets in seven games this season, which doesn’t breed confidence that his touchdown luck will improve this season.
He’s a touchdown-dependent TE2 who will stay on the streaming radar on positive matchups more so because of his offense and quarterback than anything Dawson Knox does. It’s always worrisome when the reasons you like a particular player have nothing to do with the actual player. With Josh Allen’s injury, Knox can especially be ignored.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – TE25 (5.4 PPG)
Anyone who has watched the Bears' offense can tell a difference between the first three weeks of the season and the last six weeks. The passing volume has increased from 15 attempts per game to 23.67. The passing yards per game have increased from 99 yards per game to 171 and the passing touchdowns per game have increased from 0.67 to 1.33 per game. Because of this, we’ll be looking at Kmet and how he ranks among his fellow tight ends from Weeks 4-9.
The increase in passing volume hasn’t helped Kmet as much as fantasy managers may have liked. He’s tied for 32nd in targets per game with just 3.5 over the last six weeks, tied for 22nd in receptions per game at 2.8, and 27th in receiving yards per game at 26.7. Despite this limited utilization, Kmet is tied for second with three touchdowns over this span. Be careful about chasing touchdowns.
He’s averaging just over 21 air yards per game and running just under 24 routes per game, which ranks 22nd among tight ends. Despite the increase in passing volume for Chicago, over their last six games, Kmet still has just one double-digit game, which is when he found the end zone twice. Even in the other game he scored, he finished with just 8.1 half-PPR points. The floor is still extremely low for Kmet and the touchdown potential is still very limited.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE26 (5.3 PPG)
Cade Otton’s playing time has coincided with Cameron Brate’s injuries. In Weeks 1 and 3, Otton did not play at all. In Weeks 2, 4, and 6, Brate left early in all three games, which left Otton filling in as the primary tight end for half of the contest. However, in Weeks 5 and 7–9, Otton acted as the primary tight end for the majority of the game. In these four contests, Otton had snap shares of 81% at the low end all the way up to 93%. To fully understand his fantasy value, we’ll be looking specifically at these weeks. Moving forward, fantasy managers will need to stay up to date on Brate’s status, but based on Otton’s play, we should expect the rookie to remain the starter.
In our four-game sample, Weeks 5 and 7–9, Otton averaged 5.8 targets per game, which ranked 13th among tight ends. He was ninth in receptions per game with 4.2 and ninth in receiving yards per game with 47.5. All of those numbers are very promising for the rookie, but what is even more important for his fantasy value is the opportunity he was given. He was running just over 42 routes per game during this span. This was the second-highest among all tight ends and he averaged an 81% route run participation rate.
Despite the minimal playing time throughout the entire season, Otton has still earned a very impressive number of red zone targets. He is tied for sixth on the season with eight red zone targets. He has just one touchdown, but his utilization indicates we should expect more during the second half of the season, as long as he maintains his starting role.
In his four games as the starter, Otton has finished with 7.3 half-PPR points, 8.4, 2.5, and 15.3. He earned at least five targets in each of those four games. As long as he maintains his role as the starter, which will be something fantasy managers will need to track with Brate now returning to practice, his workload and utilization should keep him in the high-end TE2 conversation.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys – TE28 (4.7 PPG)
Looking at Dalton Schultz's PPG won't get anyone excited. 4.7 half-PPR PPG is not appealing whatsoever, but we need to remember Dak Prescott missed Weeks 2–6. It makes the most sense to look at what Schultz has done with Prescott behind center, which means we only have a three-game sample, which isn't ideal, but we also have the entire 2021 season as a point of reference as well.
During that three-game sample, Schultz played 100% of the snaps in Week 1, but then played under 70% in Weeks 7 and 8, which is not close to his typical snap percentage, so while the three-game sample is small, it also is with Schultz not playing the typical number of snaps that he otherwise would be expected to play.
In this three-game sample size, Schultz averaged seven targets per game. This would be the fifth-most among tight ends this season. In those three games with Dak, despite playing fewer than 70% of the snaps in two games, he racked up 18 receptions, good for an average of six per game. On the season, only Kelce's 7.1 reception average is better. Schultz also averaged 61.7 yards per game, which would rank third among tight ends. Based on this three-game sample, Schultz would be on pace for 119 targets, 102 receptions, and 1,049 yards.
There are some obvious dangers when looking at a small sample, but he did have 104 targets, 78 receptions, and 808 yards last season working behind CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. With Cooper now gone, many expected Schultz to operate as the No. 2 target in this Dallas offense. That outcome is still completely in play during the second half of the season.
With Prescott back under center and as Schultz continues to get healthier resulting in his snap count ticking up, Schultz could yet live up to his offseason hype. It might just come in one half of football, but if he was dropped in your league and you're looking for a tight end, I'd advise picking him up. His target numbers with Prescott give him top-12 potential for the rest of the season.
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