RADIO
We have a couple more games on our Saturday with 48 games this week. Tennessee is the only team slumming, but I guess they earned it by knocking off Alabama. If they ever needed a glorified scrimmage, it's now.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that Air Force and Iowa State are my friends and I need so stay far, far away from Eastern Michigan. I said that like a month ago...
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 8 (10/22)
Iowa at (2)Ohio State(-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
We're about to find out just how good this Iowa defense is. I know how awful the offense is. The defense has almost outscored the offense so far, but they won't get any freebies from the Buckeyes. I don't think Iowa scores. If that's true, Ohio State only needs five touchdowns. That happens more often than not. The Ohio State line won't dominate as much here, so I'll take Iowa. I'm not betting on this though. I won't rely on the Iowa offense for anything.
(14)Syracuse at (5)Clemson(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Would you believe that this is the first-ever meeting between two 6-0 teams at Clemson? It is. This line feels high. The Orange defense is good enough to keep Clemson guessing and I think Sean Tucker breaks a run or two. Oronde Gadsden could be an issue for the secondary. I don't think the Orange win, but I'll say this stays within ten points.
(21)Cincinnati(-3.5) at SMU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm assuming that the absence of Ben Bryant is skewing this line. People easily forget just how close Evan Prater was to beating out Bryant in the summer. I think the Cincinnati offense will still be fine and we all know the defense is fine. I'll take the Bearcats. SMU has problems with teams that can run the ball and control the clock.
Kansas at Baylor(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Kansas secondary got split open a few times last week and I tend to think that Baylor has better receivers overall than Oklahoma does. They don't have anyone the caliber of Mims, but the depth is much better. Blake Shapen did practice this week, so it's looking like he will play. If he does, this is too low. If he doesn't, I'm probably flipping this and lowering the bet.
Louisiana-Monroe at Army(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Can Tyrone Howell get loose in the Army secondary? A couple of teams have been able to, but Monroe has struggled with teams that can run the ball. They keep it close, but probably not within seven. Give me Army.
Indiana at Rutgers(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is off the board in some places and opened even in others. It's all over the place, but I remain pretty steadfast on my Indiana pick. The Rutgers defense is good, but Indiana was able to knock off Illinois. Rutgers shouldn't stand a chance, let alone be favored!
Houston(-2.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy was almost buried by SMU before coming back on them and almost stealing a win. The Middies are playing as well as they have all season. Houston has the talent, but Navy has the heart. Give me Navy.
Akron at Kent State(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Dequan Finn blew through the Kent defense last week. D.J. Irons isn't as good as Finn, but he's similar enough that this line looks high. I'll take Akron. I don't think they win outright, but they should be able to keep this around two touchdowns.
Duke at Miami(FL)(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Miami almost lost to a Virginia Tech team that got trampled by Pitt a week before that. I feel the same about Miami as I do about Houston right now. The only difference is that Miami doesn't have the in-fighting that Houston does. The talent is on Miami's side, but I kind of think Duke hangs around. Give me the Blue Devils.
Toledo(-7.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Kent's defense had looked pretty good until Dequan Finn got ahold of them last week. The Buffalo offense is pretty good. The defense is not. Give me the Rockets.
Bowling Green at Central Michigan(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Chippewas struggled with Akron last week. Give me Bowling Green. They might even win this outright!
Eastern Michigan at Ball State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Carson Steele is going to carve up this defense. This feels low. Give me Ball State.
Northern Illinois(-2.5) at Ohio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Yeah...okay...NIU throttles Eastern Michigan and now they're good? I don't think so. Ohio dominated a solid Western team last week. I like the Bobcats by double digits! The defense turned a corner last week.
UNLV at Notre Dame(-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How excited is NBC for this game? They booted it to Peacock in favor of figure skating...in a non-Olympic year. The Irish offense is going to look really good here, if only for a week. Give me Notre Dame.
West Virginia at Texas Tech(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I get it...the Red Raiders are at home. They're fun. They go for it on fourth down all the time. They upset big, bad Texas. However, they are also committed to using all four quarterbacks in this game and at least two running backs and riding the hot hand. The Mountaineers are likely to get CJ Donaldson back and they looked solid against Baylor last week. Give me WVU. I like Texas Tech, but I don't like the open auditions in the middle of games.
Rice(-2.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Aside from the USC game, the Owls have been competitive in every game. I can't say that for Tech, who just got blown out by North Texas. Give me the Owls.
(7)Mississippi at LSU(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
A top-ten team laying points on the road? Come on now. I saw Florida's run game – which has been average or worse all season – carve off chunks of LSU like a Thanksgiving turkey. Jaxson Dart won't make the mistakes that Anthony Richardson did last week. These Ole Miss backs are going to have a field day. Ole Miss by at least a touchdown.
(9)UCLA at (10)Oregon(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place, but it has stabilized some with Oregon climbing steadily. That said, there's less juice on Oregon at many sites, so if you're betting on the Ducks, shop around. There are good odds to be had. I like Oregon here, but close. Closer than a touchdown. Give me UCLA.
(20)Texas(-6.5) at (11)Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cowboys are almost a touchdown dog at home, which essentially means the public is betting that the Longhorns are two touchdowns better than Oklahoma State on a neutral field. I don't buy that at all. The Iowa State offense – which mustered a dazzling 20 points combined against the Kansas schools in back-to-back weeks – scored 21 on Texas and should have had more. The Texas defense is getting too much respect. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair, which overwhelmingly favors the Pokes. Give me OSU outright.
Boston College at (13)Wake Forest(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boston College is a mess on offense and on the road. Give me Wake.
Memphis at (25)Tulane(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Tigers are going to have some problems with this Tulane D. I'll ride the Wave.
BYU(-6.5) at Liberty
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm still on the fence about this one. BYU is more tested, but that defense has been gouged many times this year. Give me the Flames at home, but I'm not touching this.
Purdue at Wisconsin(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believed Wisconsin had turned a corner last week, but a loss to Michigan State cured me of that. I still like Purdue outright.
Northwestern at Maryland(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If I had to guess, I would say there's no way that Taulia Tagovailoa plays in this game. Even if he looks good in practice, I would hold him out. Frankly, the Terps don't need him here. Maryland BIG with or without Taulia.
Western Michigan at Miami(OH)(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oh man, Western looked awful last week. Ohio tripled their takeaway total in one game. The Broncos couldn't get out of their own way against an average-at-best defense and we expect them not to fold against the Redhawks? This is too low. Give me Miami.
Marshall at James Madison(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Things are about to get real for the Dukes. Can Henri Columbi throw to win? Maybe not, but he should be able to throw to keep this within ten. Give me Marshall.
Georgia Southern at Old Dominion(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
A high-powered offense that threw for nearly six Benjamins last week against a ground game that chopped up the 'Cleers last week. What's not to love? Nothing, but that doesn't mean I'm betting on a game of polar opposites in the Fun Belt. I like Georgia Southern here, but I'm not touching this. I'm just going to enjoy the game!
Florida International at Charlotte(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FIU is getting better, but it literally wasn't possible for them to be worse. Give me Charlotte, but I'm lowering the bet because of that half.
North Texas at UTSA(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I still think the Roadrunners are the class of the Conference USA Give me UTSA.
Vanderbilt at Missouri(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line quietly snuck under two touchdowns. I like it less down here. I was seriously considering taking Vandy. We didn't learn anything about the Commodores being sacrificed to Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. Literally nothing. I do feel this is too many though. Give me Vanderbilt. I don't think they win, but I like what they have going on in Nashville.
Arizona State at Stanford(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Just because Stanford beat the Irish don't mean they have turned a corner. Tanner McKee still had a downright awful game. The Sun Devils can likely run behind Xazavian Valladay to win this game where the Irish couldn't. I'll take Sparky.
Hawaii at Colorado State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Both teams are bad. One is worse. Much worse. I like Hawaii outright. If the Rams didn't score on defense, they would have nothing to show for the last two or three games.
Florida Atlantic(-4.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line feels a little off since FAU struggled before a hard-fought win over Rice. I'm still taking the Owls.
Arkansas State at Louisiana(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is almost no juice on the Red Wolves and you have to pay a premium unless you go above 7 on the Cajuns. That seals the pick for me. Give me the Cajuns. It feels like we're on the right side of that half.
Southern Mississippi(-2.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats are good at home, but Frank Gore Jr. is good everywhere. Give me Southern Miss.
San Jose State(-21.5) at New Mexico State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You don't know how much I wish that I wouldn't have watched either of these teams last week. Before last week, I would have gone pretty heavy on the Spartans. Now? Only partially heavy on the Spartans. I think the Spartans had more of an outlier week than the Aggies did.
Fresno State(-10.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How's this for poetic justice? Knowing my luck, this is the game where New Mexico shows up and blows my bet. You know what? I'm not giving them the chance. I'm leaving this one alone. Give me Fresno, but I don't trust either of them.
(24)Mississippi State at (6)Alabama(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I would really hate to be the team playing Alabama after a loss. Roll Tide!
Boise State at Air Force(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
However you want to bet on this line, I'm pretty sure you can find it if you shop around. I still see a couple of sites with Boise favored. I've seen it at even and Air Force at -2.5. How is the line this close? Boise's run defense has been a strength, but this is an elite rushing attack. Give me Air Force. This is too low.
Minnesota at (16)Penn State(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There's a lot of action on the Gophers which has caused this line to crater. It opened at -10. I was hoping to leverage this line a little more. Happy Valley in a whiteout is tough, but Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts could go all Michigan on Penn State. I still like Minnesota outright.
Texas A&M(-3.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Look...I get it. That crowing rooster every 30 seconds for four hours is one of the most annoying things in college football. It's still not going to save the Cocks from A&M. They won't win this game unless A&M beats themselves. Since that is a possibility, I'm lowering the bet a little. Wait...no I'm not. I've got ground to make up. A&M by double digits!
Central Florida(-4.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's more juice than I like on the Pirates. I think ECU keeps up for a while, but at some point, this UCF offense is going to pull away. I'll take the Knights.
(17)Kansas State at (8)TCU(3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Every time I watch TCU I wait for the wheels to fall off. They always seem one drive away from disaster, but they keep finding ways to win. That's what makes them a dangerous team. I'm expecting a great game in Fort Worth here. It's one of the ones I'm really looking forward to this weekend. Usually, I go lighter on those because they could literally go either way. I'm going with the Toadies at home.
Colorado at Oregon State(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is too many. Cal's defense had some problems with Colorado. Getting that one win – and seeing how happy it made the fans – can really change things. Colorado is a scrappy team with some talent, especially on defense. I just don't see the Beavers winning this by three touchdowns. Two maybe, but not three. Give me Colorado.
Pittsburgh at Louisville(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line makes me think that Malik Cunningham will play for the Cardinals. Pitt's ability to run the ball is going to be a problem for Louisville no matter who is under center. I like Pitt outright.
Utah State at Wyoming(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who knows which string of quarterback Utah State will be on by kickoff? If Cooper Legas plays, the Aggies have a shot at winning this outright. If not, the line is too low. One-dimensional teams have problems with Wyoming. I'll take the Cowboys regardless, and I might not even change the bet.
Washington(-7.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Washington's defense has not played well of late. I did feel like they should have run off with the game last week, and though the offense played well, the defense got gouged. Cal is good enough to take advantage of some of that, but I still like the Huskies' offense by double digits here.
San Diego State(-7.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Aztecs finally gave up on Braxton Burmeister as a quarterback. They probably should have done so weeks ago. This is still an offense that struggles to move the ball, but Nevada's defense has been almost as big of a mess as their offense. Almost. Give me the Aztecs.
I only have four one-point bets this week, so I'm wagering a little more than usual. For the first time this year, I have more threes (21) than twos (18). After my picks on the middle line last week, that makes me a bit nervous. I put eight on the four-line with two max bets. There's a lot more at the top than I usually have, but I feel pretty good about this week.
There's enough for a decent parlay today. I have Maryland and A&M maxed out. I like Air Force, Arizona State, SDSU, and Colorado and the points for a nice payoff later in the night.
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