MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/25/2025)

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/25/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Gunnar Henderson, Agustin Ramirez, Cal Raleigh, Brent Rooker, and others.

It's a beautiful day for baseball, and for the first time in several months, I am going to offer up six home run props for your consideration tonight!

To be honest, I had to narrow my list down to eight that I was strongly considering. I really like all these spots tonight, and I dug in pretty deep to the matchups to make sure that the batted ball data and some very specific pitch-mix data all backed up the plays, too.

In this article, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, August 25, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/25/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, August 25:

• Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
• Agustin Ramirez, Miami Marlins
• Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
• Brent Rooker, Athletics
• Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers

Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 FanDuel)

Since I am going with an unprecedented number of home run picks today, I will attempt to keep the analysis somewhat short and sweet. Henderson will face Boston righty Richard Fitts, who leads the slate with a 2.20 HR/9 rate.

Gunnar Henderson gets the @Orioles offense started quickly 🚀 pic.twitter.com/rQKHUyTFeN

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2025

Fitts throws his fastball 40% of the time and then relies on a slider and curveball as his other two main offerings. Most big-leaguers have good power numbers against fastballs, so I like to look at how hitters handle a pitcher's secondary offerings. Henderson has a .571 SLG% against right-handed curveballs with three home runs and a .600 SLG% vs. right-handed sliders with another homer.

It looks like a cross-wind blowing left-to-right at Camden Yards today, but you know I love targeting lefties for home runs there, as it's been one of the most homer-friendly parks for southpaws in recent years.

Agustin Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+470 FanDuel)

Going after Spencer Strider for a home run might seem like a bad idea, but the hard-throwing ace has really struggled lately, seeing his ERA balloon to 5.24 and giving up a league-high 3.8 HR/9 over the last month.

My top target here is the power-hitting rookie Ramirez, who doesn't strike out much and handles Strider's two main pitches (four-seamer) and slider quite well. Ramirez has hit 13 of his 18 home runs this season against RHP.

Ramirez has a .295 ISO and .607 SLG% against four-seamers from RHP this season with a 43% FB%. He's also hit six home runs off right-handed sliders, though his average drops against that pitch. With Strider struggling with his command lately, I think Ramirez and the Marlins will be sitting on the four-seamer today and ready to drive it when they get one in the spot they're looking for it.

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 FanDuel)

We have some really attractive hitting conditions at Rate Field in Chicago today. The winds are projected to be blowing out around 11 mph, which could be an issue for White Sox starter Shane Smith, who has allowed a 1.8 HR/9 mark over the last month.

Smith is very tough on righties, but has allowed 10 home runs to lefties this season. That puts me firmly on Vinnie as my favorite KC bat, as he's sporting a .512 SLG% vs. RHP this year with 23 of his 28 homers coming against them.

Vinnie Pasquantino in his last 29 games:

13 HR
35 RBIpic.twitter.com/JHw3V5qLEj

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) August 24, 2025

Pasquantino is red-hot, too, slugging a home run in six of his last seven games. He's looked as good at the plate over the last week as he has all season, and I think he will get something good from Smith to hit today. Let's keep swinging that hot stick today, big man.

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Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+190 DraftKings)

I am breaking my own rule by betting on a home run pick under +200 odds, but I simply can't get past how well Raleigh matches up against Southpaw JP Sears today. We just saw the "Big Dumper" take another lefty, Jacob Lopez, deep twice yesterday, and he's now up to a .693 SLG against lefties on the season.

SECOND OF THE DAY AND NO. 49 ON THE YEAR!

Cal Raleigh has now hit the most home runs in a season by a primary catcher (min. 75% of games caught)! pic.twitter.com/O6cmvva4bC

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2025

Enter Sears, who has a 1.84 HR/9 mark on the season and who has allowed 21 of his 25 home runs to righties. We continue to see him crush both handednesses of pitchers as he's putting together one of the best power-hitting seasons by a switch-hitter since the likes of Lance Berkman.

Furthermore, Raleigh has a .509 ISO against left-handed four-seamers and a .414 ISO against left-handed changeups - Sears' top two pitches to right-handed hitters. I think we see the AL MVP (there, I said it!) get another deep ball today.

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)

Anytime we have a game at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, we have to give some strong consideration to home run props there. Especially when it's hot and we get the wind blowing out, which it's anticipated to be around 12 mph to left-center field!

Tarik Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball, but Brent Rooker has had his number in his career. The Athletics DH owns a .417 average across 17 at-bats with three home runs off the lefty Skubal.

Brent Rooker got every stitch of this ball 😤 pic.twitter.com/0aTbU2O9YG

— MLB (@MLB) August 17, 2025

Rooker has been crushing lefties all season to the tune of a .320/.426/.573 slash line, and Skubal has looked more human than usual lately, allowing four home runs in his last four starts. I love these odds for Rooker, who would probably have like +200 odds against a lesser LHP tonight in these hitting conditions.

Kerry Carpenter OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+260 FanDuel)

I had a really tough time deciding between Carpenter and his teammate Riley Greene for this pick. Full disclosure - I will probably bet them both as they look fantastic in this spot against Athletics' RHP J.T. Ginn.

Ginn has struggled with the long ball this year, as his 1.95 HR/9 mark trails only Fitts on tonight's slate. He's been very bad against lefties, too, allowing eight home runs to southpaws and a ridiculous .339/.424/.633 slash line.

Ultimately, I went with Carpenter because of the way he matched up against Ginn's top three pitches that he throws to lefties - his sinker, cutter, and changeup.

While Greene has fared well against these pitches, too, it's Carpenter who has the best numbers, especially in terms of his ability to elevate these pitches. Greene has a 52% groundball rate against right-handed sinkers, while Carpenter's is just 35%. Check out these power numbers for Carpenter against these three pitches, too.

• Vs. Sinker - 1.143
• Vs. Change - .525
• Vs. Cutter - .576

Carpenter's odds are fairly low here, but for good reason. He crushes everything that Ginn throws and has elite splits against righties. This is about as good a matchup as I have seen all season when researching these props!

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