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Mike Marteny's bold predictions for the 2025 college football season, including picks for Nebraska, Indiana, Baylor, Georgia Tech, and the Heisman Trophy.
Farmageddon just passed. We waited for that moment through eight long months of baseball (even though it was my first love), flopping, more flopping, the NCAA Tournament, the WNBA season, and two months of NBA playoffs. It's refreshing to get back to the best sport of all.
I do make some bold(ish) predictions from time to time in my betting articles, but let's try this over a full season. My picks last year that hit were Indiana finishing above .500 and Florida State winning fewer than eight games. I also said that Arizona would win the Big 12 (16) and Virginia Tech would win the ACC. Take these all with a grain of salt.
Heading into 2025, here are 10 bold but somewhat realistic predictions for the college football season. Don't you think it's odd that both major polls have Texas ranked at the top, yet nearly every publication has Alabama or Georgia winning the SEC? Something has to give!
No. 10: This Year's Indiana is ... Indiana
The Hoosiers are ranked in the top 20 of both polls, but no one is expecting the same kind of success that they had last year. Why not? The coach who took the defibrillator to the Indiana program is still there.
Fernando Mendoza is so impressive- great physical tools - both arm and legs - and tons of talent around him
Also really enjoyed visiting with him - tremendous personality- the kind of guy people rally around. Feels like a home run transfer at the most important position pic.twitter.com/zc0OehTSIO
— Dave Revsine (@BTNDaveRevsine) August 8, 2025
We know that Kurtis Rourke was a big piece of Indiana's success, but his replacement is more accomplished than Rourke was at this point in his career. Fernando Mendoza is a true junior who was the only bright spot on a bad Cal team last year.
The top two receivers return (Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr.). Maryland transfer Roman Hemby will back up longtime Curt Cignetti favorite Kaelon Black in the backfield.
On the defensive side, leading tackler Aiden Fisher and sack master Mikail Kamara are still there, leading the way. Don't be surprised if Indiana is even better than last season. I will say Indiana wins 10 games again.
No. 9: Baylor Wins the Big 12 (16)
I do say that continuity is king in college football now. That said, Ohio State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Oregon, SMU (backup won the job in Week 3), Arizona State (freshman), Boise State (freshman), and Georgia (backup forced to start in the CFP) all had new starters at quarterback.
Well, most of the talent around them was already there. In the case of SMU, Boise, and Georgia, all of the starters were on the bench for at least a year.
Let’s talk about Bryson Washington.
Best freshman RB in Baylor history. Pendergrass is out for the year. Big 12 schedule ahead.
Not a hot take: Washington could finish as the #CFF RB1.
$12.5M. Only 2% owned. pic.twitter.com/IOzdoCUMBS
— College Fantasy Football (@OfficialCFFB) August 13, 2025
Baylor returns QB Sawyer Robertson (who beat out Dequan Finn in Week 3), RB Bryson Washington (a freshman workhorse from Week 5 on), and leading receiver Josh Cameron to a team that won six straight games to close the season. The loss to LSU in the bowl game was close for most of the game. The defense could hold Baylor back, but this offense promises to be one of the best in the Big 12 (16).
What does that mean when a QB returns with all of the skill players? We saw that with Penn State and Clemson last year. Those teams did rather well, yes?
No. 8: The Big 12 (16) Will Be the Best Conference Top to Bottom
The SEC, ACC, and Big Ten (18) are like the Pacific Ocean over the Mariana Trench. We know the conference is deep, but the chasm between the top and the bottom is so large that you have no idea where the bottom is. With the Big 12 (16), it's very different. It's like swimming in the ocean at a Caribbean island. You can see the bottom, and you know exactly where it is.
The bottom isn't far from the top. There isn't a dominant team in the newly made Big 12 (16) like there is in the other major conferences. I see no fewer than eight teams that could win this conference, and I wouldn't be surprised. As for the bottom, Central Florida may be the worst team in the conference, and it may still be a .500 team.
Arizona State, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech all enter the season ranked in the top 25. Utah added New Mexico's Devon Dampier at QB and Washington State's dynamic RB, Wayshawn Parker, to an offense that let this team down last year. The defense might still be the best in the conference. You know my feelings on Baylor. Cincinnati, Colorado, and West Virginia all got some big-name transfers. Kansas gets a healthy Jalon Daniels.
This conference is not top-heavy. There are several really good teams in this conference. The bad part is that the winner of the conference will likely have two or three losses again. Given the media bias toward the SEC and Big Ten (18), we could only see one playoff team from this conference.
I hope I'm wrong because the Big 12 (16) regular season might be the most entertaining in college football. No one fears Mississippi State, Stanford, or Purdue. If you're going into Orlando, the team may not be great, but you know it is good, and the crowd will show up.
No. 7: Nebraska is 10-0 When It Faces Penn State on November 22
Matt Rhule Year 2 ➡️ Year 3 in his coaching career.
Temple:
• 2014 - 6-6
• 2015 - 10-4 (AAC 🏆 Game)Baylor:
• 2018 - 7-6 (Bowl Win)
• 2019 - 11-3 (Big 12 🏆 Game)Nebraska:
• 2024 - 7-6 (Bowl Win)
• 2025 - ??A track record of promise and progress. pic.twitter.com/GLbmrMoppM
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) December 28, 2024
I'm drinking the Matt Rhule Kool-Aid. At every college coaching job, there was a big leap from Year 2 to Year 3. Not only that, but this schedule lines up perfectly for a strong start from the Cornhuskers.
The game against Cincinnati is at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. This is exactly what you want in an opening game. It's against a good team, but not one that is so good that you'll get smoked. This is a very winnable game for Nebraska. Akron and Houston Christian won't pose much of a threat.
Then come both Michigan schools at home. Bryce Underwood is going to change the Michigan offense. If Nebraska figures out how to handle Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby, it can probably contain Underwood. Keep in mind that Nebraska locked up Shedeur Sanders last year.
October opens with a road trip to Maryland, which is also starting a freshman at QB. Next is the $5 Bits Of Broken Chair game in Minneapolis. The Gophers don't look as good as last year right now. The next week brings a Northwestern team that always seems to give Nebraska problems in Lincoln. Next is a home game against a USC team that beat Nebraska in L.A. last year (the final score doesn't show it, but Nebraska was completely in trouble on the last play of the game that gave the victory to USC).
The last game before the showdown in Beaver Stadium is in L.A. against UCLA. The Bruins are improved, but you can't get much worse than they were last year. However, it's safe to say that Nebraska is markedly better than the 2024 version.
Dylan Raiola is a sophomore now and has learned a lot in the offseason. Emmett Johnson took the RB room by storm, easily earning the job this spring after no back separated themselves for much of last season. Dane Key from Kentucky and Nyziah Hunter from Cal join Jacory Barney Jr. to form the best WR room Nebraska has had in years.
This schedule is about as easy as it gets for a Big Ten (18) school. Even if Nebraska loses to Michigan, this is likely a 10-win team, keeping Rhule's streak of 10-win seasons in Year 3 intact.
No. 6: Georgia Tech Wins 10 Games for the First Time Since 2014
As is typical of most ACC schedules this season, Tech only plays one ranked team within the conference. On top of that, the Bees get both ranked teams (No. 4 Clemson and No. 5 Georgia) at home. Tech dodges Miami (even though it beat the Canes in 2024), SMU, and North Carolina, making this one of the easier ACC schedules.
QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes are both in their third years in Atlanta. We saw a big improvement from both players in 2024. 2025 could be even better! Florida International's Eric Rivers gives Tech the fastest receiver in Atlanta since Charles Johnson. He went for 295 yards against New Mexico State last year at FIU. The CFP is the limit for Georgia Tech with this schedule!
No. 5: The SEC Gets Five Teams Into the College Football Playoff
With the news that the CFP Committee added a metric to include strength of schedule, the SEC immediately made the move to mandate nine conference games and one more Power Four opponent on the schedule.
That mandate will not take effect until 2026, but it may not matter. Have you seen Florida or LSU's schedules? If the CFP Committee starts weighing SOS this season, there is no way it can keep Florida or LSU out, even with three losses.
The SEC begins the season with 10 of the 18 teams ranked (No. 1 Texas, No. 5 Georgia, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 LSU, No. 13 South Carolina, No. 15 Florida, No. 18 Oklahoma, No. 19 Texas A&M, No. 21 Mississippi, and No. 24 Tennessee). It's no surprise that nearly every SEC team plays at least six ranked teams this season. If you take a look at our strength of schedule rankings, the SEC occupies the top four spots and eight of the top 10.
Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt aren't threats to be in the CFP discussion, but the other four -- Oklahoma, LSU, Florida, and South Carolina -- could be right in the thick of it. Notice that Georgia, Alabama, and Texas aren't even in the top 10 of toughest schedules. If all three of those teams get in, LSU, Florida, and South Carolina will as well if they can navigate their schedules with three losses or fewer.
No. 4: UTSA Makes the College Football Playoff
The Roadrunners have the best Group of 5 quarterback in former UCLA QB Owen McCown. He threw for 3,424 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first year as a starter for UTSA.
The Roadrunners also return the best Go5 receiver corps in Willie McCoy III, Devin McCuin, and David Amador II. The defense struggled down the stretch and could be a problem this year, but adding Shad Banks Jr. from TCU is a big win from the portal.
The Roadrunners do face Texas A&M this season. If they can pull off the upset there and face a ranked Tulane, Memphis, or Navy in the AAC Championship, it should be enough to keep the Roadrunners in front of Boise or James Madison.
No. 3: UTEP Wins Its First Bowl Game Since 1967
Source: The UTEP staff has informed redshirt sophomore quarterback Malachi Nelson that he won the starting job for the Miners. The former No. 1 overall recruit in the Class of 2023 will make his first career college start at Utah State on Aug. 30. pic.twitter.com/oeHl2s88TB
— Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) August 21, 2025
You guys remember Malachi Nelson, right? The greatest that never was at USC, then lost his job to Maddux Madsen at Boise last year. Nelson won the starting job at UTEP this year, a team that has been QB-starved since Gavin Hardison led this team to the New Mexico Bowl in 2021.
Leading receivers Kam Thomas and Kenny Odom return, and the Miners added another key addition from the portal: RB Hahsaun Wilson from Charlotte. Wilson ran for 559 yards on just 91 carries for the 49ers in 2024.
The defense got a lot of reinforcements this year, and that will be the key to this prediction coming true. UTEP has been a laughingstock of college football for the last couple of seasons. This is the year it starts to get some of the mojo back.
No. 2: Wisconsin's Luke Fickell Gets Fired
Fickell brought a new spread offense with him to the Big Ten (18) when he was hired at Wisconsin two years ago. He is 12-13 in his first two years in Madison, a tenure that was marred by the Chez Mellusi saga last year and Tawee Walker transferring out this offseason (not to mention abhorrent QB play).
Fickell brings in another transfer in Maryland's Billy Edwards Jr., but the cupboards around him are pretty bare. On top of that, Wisconsin has the toughest schedule in the Big Ten (18) this year. The only one of the heavyweights the Badgers dodge is Penn State. Wisconsin does get Illinois and Iowa State at home, but it travels to Eugene, Ann Arbor, and Bloomington. That's not including a trip to Tuscaloosa in Week 3.
It's hard to see the Badgers winning any of those six games the way they looked last year. If they lose one more, this team isn't bowl-eligible. The buzz around Madison is that Fickell needs to make a bowl this year. That leaves no margin for error against Iowa, Washington, or at Minnesota. I think it loses at least one of those games to drop below .500 for the second consecutive season.
No. 1: An SEC Player Wins the Heisman, But Not the One You Think
Arch Manning has by far the best Heisman odds (+550) to open the season, but no Manning has ever won a Heisman Trophy (Uncle Peyton should have won in 1997, but I digress). That's the first thing going against Arch.
The second is that Texas has been a run-first team under Steve Sarkisian. It has been successful, so don't expect that to change. Quinn Ewers won some games when called upon, but he was not the focal point of this offense. Will that change to accommodate Manning?
At this point, I'm putting my Heisman eggs in Garrett Nussmeier's basket. LSU made a couple of big splashes in the portal at receiver (Barion Brown from Kentucky and Nic Anderson from Oklahoma) to add to the already dangerous Aaron Anderson. Caden Durham was a horse down the stretch in this backfield. Nussmeier may have the best weapons around him in the entire conference.
