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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Last weekend didn't go as we had hoped. Just two winners and an overall loss but it could have been very different. Chelsea scored a 90th-minute winner that gave us a losing pick and Nottingham Forest failed to score against the leakiest defense in the league, which would have bagged us the parlay and a profit for the weekend. Onwards and upwards as they say.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 37-40
- Total picks: 33-38-6
- Parlays: 3-10
- ROI: 95.09% (-2.97 units)
Saturday, October 08th, 2022
Leicester City (+113) at Bournemouth (+255) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 3 Leicester City
Bournemouth remained unbeaten since sacking Head Coach Scott Parker (four games), with a goalless draw at home to Brentford. They were fortunate with a penalty decision and their only victory during this run came against bottom-of-the-table Nottingham Forest.
Leicester picked up their first win of the season on Monday against Forest, beating them 4-0 at home. Scoring goals hasn't been a problem as they rank tied-6th (14 goals) but the 22 conceded is the most in the league despite the clean sheet last time out.
Betting pick: To score 2+ goals - Leicester City (+100) 1 unit
Even when losing, Leicester have been scoring plenty of goals. Monday was the fifth time this season they have scored twice in a game (eight games) and the third consecutive game they've managed it. Bournemouth have tightened things up defensively and have three clean sheets at home but had an expected goals against (xGA) of at least 1.2 in two of those games.
Player to watch: James Maddison
I mentioned him in the FPL Roudtable article last week as a key player. He scored another free-kick and now has five goals (and two assists) this season. He's also Leicester's primary corner taker, while Bournemouth have conceded the third most corners (53) and second-most fouls (115).
Wolves (+762) at Chelsea (-244) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 0 Wolves
Graham Potter got his Chelsea reign off to a winning start, beating Crystal Palace 2-1 last weekend in controversial fashion. Thiago Silva could've been sent off when they trailed 1-0, before he set up their equalizer. Chelsea had a more impressive victory in the Champions League on Wednesday, beating AC Milan 3-0.
Wolves sacked Manager Bruno Lage after their 2-0 defeat at West Ham United last Sunday. The defeat leaves them in the bottom three and with just three goals scored in their eight games. Whoever comes in to take charge will have to address their lack of goals if Wolves are to avoid a relegation battle this season.
Betting pick: To win to nil - Chelsea (+110) 0.7 units
Chelsea haven't exactly been banging in the goals this season, failing to score more than two in any of their seven EPL games. They have scored two in each of their three home games but are without a clean sheet since the opening weekend. They won't get a better chance to keep a clean sheet all season.
Player to watch: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Southampton (+1732) at Manchester City (-691) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Southampton
There isn't much more to be said about the reigning champions that hasn't been said already. Last week's 6-3 win against local rivals Manchester United made it four wins in four home games and 20 goals scored. They have conceded five at home but they came in two games with the other wins being with clean sheets.
Southampton lost their third consecutive game last weekend, falling to Everton 2-1 at home. It was their first goal in three games and they have failed to score in each of their last two away games. Southampton are also the only team without a clean sheet this season.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Manchester City handicap -1, Erling Haaland 1+ goals & Kevin de Bruyne 1+ assists (+120) 0.5 units
With such lopsided odds, I'm digging deep with this one. I expect a comfortable home win (the -2.5 handicap is also appealing) while Haaland has a hat-trick in three consecutive home games and de Bruyne has eight assists this season (five in his last three EPL games).
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
If three hat-tricks in his last three home games isn't enough to get you hyped up about Haaland, how about the fact he's on pace to score 67 EPL goals this season? He won't continue scoring at his current rate but he's not showing any signs of slowing down yet either.
Brentford (+332) at Newcastle United (-117) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 1 Brentford
Newcastle picked up their first win since the opening weekend with a 4-1 victory at Fulham last week. They were assisted by Fulham being reduced to ten men inside ten minutes but took full advantage and scored more than once in an away game for the first time this season. They are unbeaten at home (four games) but have won just once in front of their fans.
Brentford's 0-0 draw at Bournemouth last weekend was the second straight game in which they failed to score and they have just one win in their last six EPL games. They are yet to win on their travels, drawing three times and losing once.
Betting pick: Team total corners - Newcastle United 7+ corners (+110) 0.7 units
Newcastle have taken more corners than anyone else this season (61) and at home have taken 37 corners in four games (average of 9.25 per game). The only time they had fewer than eight corners was against Manchester City, in which they still managed to get five.
Player to watch: Miguel Almiron
It's hard to put too much credence into last week's game given Newcastle played against ten men for more than 80 minutes. But Almiron certainly made the most of it, scoring twice. He's played at least 80 minutes in seven of their eight EPL games and leads the team in shots (17).
Tottenham (+163) at Brighton (+181) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brighton 2 - 2 Tottenham
Brighton picked up their first point under De Zerbi's leadership, with an enthralling 3-3 draw at Liverpool. Der Zerbi has a reputation for attacking football and that was certainly on display last weekend. They have now conceded seven goals in their last three games, however.
Tottenham suffered their first league defeat of the season on Saturday, losing 3-1 at rivals Arsenal. They've only managed one win on the road this season (at bottom of the table Nottingham Forest) and drew in Frankfurt on Tuesday night in the Champions League.
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+130) 1 unit
Tottenham haven't really hit the highs many expected so far but are still third in the table and have scored 19 goals in eight games (third most). Their last three games have seen a total of 15 goals while Brighton's last three have seen a total of 16 goals. Both teams have scored in each of these sides' last three games also.
Player to watch: Alexis Mac Allister
While Leandro Trossard's hat-trick last weekend took the headlines, Mac Allister is still a player to watch in fantasy. He's Brighton's free-kick taker around the penalty area and is their penalty taker with three of his four goals this season coming from the spot. Trossard is still a great option but don't be surprised if it's the Argentine who stars for the home side this weekend.
Sunday, October 09th, 2022
Leeds United (+255) at Crystal Palace (+118) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Leeds United
Palace have had a tough set of fixtures to start the season, with last week's game against Chelsea marking the fourth time in seven games they've faced a team that finished in the top-5 last season. They've certainly not been embarrassed with only Arsenal and Manchester City beating them by more than one goal (2-0 and 4-2 respectively).
Leeds were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Aston Villa last Sunday, a game that saw Leeds play most of the second half with ten men. They were frustrated by an unadventurous Villa side and are now winless in their last four games, scoring just three. Five of the seven goals they've conceded in the last four games came against Brighton.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (-102) 0.8 units
Leeds have struggled to score recently and have four goals scored in their three away games so far. Palace have also struggled in front of goal a bit, scoring five in their four home games (three coming against Aston Villa). With both teams looking to end four-game winless streaks, expect this one to be a close-fought and tight game.
Player to watch: Ebrechi Eze
Eyes will be on Wilfried Zaha on Sunday but Eze has impressed, albeit without much consistency. He leads the team in shot-creating actions (15) and is second behind Zaha in shots (10). He's got two assists on the season while also being Palace's main corner taker.
Fulham (+356) at West Ham United (-126) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Fulham
West Ham moved out of the relegation places last weekend when they beat Wolves at home 2-0. It was only their second win of the season (their first at home) and the first time they managed to score more than one in a league game. West Ham are yet to win a game in which they concede a goal.
Fulham's 4-1 defeat at home to Newcastle last weekend was largely down to playing with ten men for more than 80 minutes. It was Fulham's third defeat in their last five games but outside of a goalless draw with Wolves in Matchweek 2, they kept up their record of scoring and conceding a goal in every game.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Both teams to score and both teams over 0.5 cards (+125) 1 unit
Other than their goalless draw with Wolves, both teams have scored in each of Fulham's games this season. In their four away games, Fulham and their opponents have each received two or more bookings. West Ham have now scored in four of their last five EPL games and their only clean sheet at home came against Wolves, the league's lowest scorers. They have also received at least two yellow cards in each of their last three home games.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen
Bowen finally scored his first goal of the season last weekend, something we did manage to correctly predict. He leads the team in shots (nine) and shot-creating actions (21) as well as being the team's primary corner taker.
Liverpool (+170) at Arsenal (+158) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 2 Liverpool
Arsenal stayed on top of the table with a 3-1 win at home to rivals Tottenham. They were very much the better team for the majority of the game and led 2-1 when Tottenham were reduced to ten men. The win maintained their 100% home record to start the season, despite not keeping a clean sheet in their four home games.
Liverpool's sluggish start to the season continued with their 3-3 draw at home to Brighton. After conceding just 26 goals last season, they've already conceded nine in seven games and have yet to win on their travels (two draws and one loss).
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (-108) 1 unit
Arsenal played Liverpool four times last season in all competitions and failed to score in any of the games. That record goes back to six games now but this is a vastly different Arsenal team than in previous seasons and only Manchester City have scored more in the league so far. Liverpool have looked shaky defensively all season and this game looks to be most likely for goals across the slate.
Player to watch: Gabriel Martinelli
Martinelli is set to face off against Trent Alexander-Arnold, who has been much maligned for his defensive deficiencies so far this season. Martinelli leads Arsenal in shot-creating actions (34) and successful dribbles (20), which is also the most of any player in the EPL.
Manchester United (+107) at Everton (+272) - 2:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Manchester United
Everton's resurgence continued last weekend as they picked up their first away win of the season, beating Southampton 2-1. It was the first time they had scored more than once in a game this season and extended their unbeaten run to six games. They have conceded just one non-penalty goal at home in four games so far.
Manchester United were brought back down to Earth last weekend, suffering a humbling 6-3 loss at Manchester City, a game in which they trailed 4-0 at half-time. That ended a run of four straight wins and was the first time they managed to score more than once in an away game (two goals coming late in the game when they were 6-1 behind).
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Everton (+171) 0.7 units
Everton have been a tough team to beat and their newly form defensive partnership has performed excellently. The seven goals conceded this season is the fewest in the league and while before last weekend, Manchester United have looked better than they did in their first two games of the season, question marks are still lingering over them. Everton can leapfrog United in the league with a win and I like their chances of getting at least a point.
Player to watch: Demarai Gray
While youngster Anthony Gordon has taken most of the headlines for Everton this season, it's Gray who leads the team in shot-creating actions (27), shots taken (19) and expected goals (1.9). His pace on the wing could be Everton's best route to a goal against some suspect full-backs and a fragile Manchester United defensive unit.
Monday, October 10th, 2022
Aston Villa (+122) at Nottingham Forest (+238) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0 - 1 Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest fell to the foot of the table on Monday, following a 4-0 drubbing at Leicester City. Much has been commented on about the 20+ new players they brought in this Summer but the results haven't equaled the investment. They have conceded 18 goals in their last five league games.
Aston Villa picked up their first away point of the season in drawing with Leeds 0-0 last weekend. It was also their second consecutive clean sheet as they look like they're curbing some of their attacking play in a bid to be more solid defensively. It wasn't pretty to watch last weekend and given they faced ten men for nearly the entire second half, they should feel a bit disappointed not to have taken all three points.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Total goals under 3.5 & total corners under 11.5 (+100) 1 unit
Forest have struggled for goals all season, failing to score in four of their eight games, while Villa have scored twice in a game just once (eight games). I expect Forest to look at strengthening things at the back following their recent run while Villa look content in trying to grind out results at the moment. Villa ranks 13th in corners taken, Forest ranks 17th.
Player to watch: Lucas Digne
I'm finding it hard to pick any attacking player I like in this game so Digne could represent the best play in the match. He offers some attacking threat, ranking fifth in the team for shot-creating actions (10) while leading the team in crosses (28). If he can keep a clean sheet too, Digne may end up being the highest fantasy points scorer in the match.
Parlays
Both teams to score: Brighton/Tottenham, Arsenal/Liverpool and Everton/Manchester United (+304) 0.6 units
Moneyline: Leicester City, Newcastle United and Crystal Palace to win (+761) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
