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Mike's top college football betting picks and best bets for today's CFB games on 9/3/22 (Week 1). His free picks and top wagers against the spread for every FBS game.
Our monster opening weekend finishes off with 35 more FBS vs. FBS games. There are a couple of intriguing FBS vs. FCS matchups going on as well, but I'm still not picking them. I still have to draw the line somewhere. For a bonus pick though, take South Dakota State and the points against Iowa. 15.5 is too many since I wouldn't be shocked if the Jacks win outright.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
Colorado State at (8)Michigan(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan starting Cade McNamara in Week 1 and J.J. McCarthy in Week 2 is certainly an interesting way to solve a QB controversy. Well, when you have cakes on the schedule, you may as well eat them. I have no idea how this will work, but I'm lowering the bet. The Rams, sans A'Jon Vivens, are terrible. Give me Michigan.
(13)North Carolina State(-11.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really love the fact that the Wolfpack is heading down to Greenville for a game. I think it's great for the game that a smaller school can get a nationally ranked team to come to their house. Holton Ahlers is good enough to give NC State some problems, but I feel like Devin Leary and those receivers are going to be too much. This is going to be a great game though. I'll take the Wolfpack, but I'm not super confident in it.
Buffalo at Maryland(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is all over the place and I'm not sure why. Taulia Tagovailoa is in for another great season and Dontay Demus is back. This is a really talented Maryland squad and I believe they will beat one of those teams that most think they won't (I'm looking at you, Penn State and Michigan). This feels like a warm-up for Maryland. Give me the Terps.
Rutgers at Boston College(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I do think Rutgers is getting better, but Boston College was making a lot of noise before Phil Jurkovec went down early in the season. The Eagles return leading rusher Pat Garwo III and leading receiver Zay Flowers along with Jurkovec. Rutgers still hasn't decided on a quarterback. Give me the Eagles.
North Carolina at Appalachian State(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's going to be a great day of football on Tobacco Road with the Wolfpack heading to Greenville and the Heels heading to Boone. This line flipped after UNC's apathetic game against a very short-handed Florida A&M team. Drake Maye and Josh Downs are still going to be tough to deal with, but the Mountaineers bring a lot of talent back as well. This is going to be one of my favorite games of the day! I love App State, but I don't think this should have flipped. Give me North Carolina.
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Bowling Green at UCLA(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
A disheveled Tennessee team covered the Falcons in the opener last year in a line that was ten points above this. UCLA returns Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet. This feels really low. Bruins roll!
UTEP at (9)Oklahoma(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really thought there would be a jump in this line since North Texas spanked the Miners in El Paso last week. It is still down nearly ten points since it opened. I usually wouldn't take Oklahoma in a line like this, especially considering the tumultuous offseason. That said, I like the talent that came in and...I watched that UTEP game last week. They didn't look good at all. BOOMER!
(11)Oregon vs. (3)Georgia(-16.5) at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is basically a road game for the Ducks. Still, Georgia only has 10 returning starters. The big one is Stetson Bennett, but is that enough? There's a lot we don't know about Oregon, but we know that Bo Nix can't beat Georgia. I'll take the Bulldogs.
(23)Cincinnati at (19)Arkansas(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cincinnati is still going to be good, but losing Desmond Ridder, Jerome Ford, and Alec Pierce is tough. Going into Fayetteville while incorporating so many moving pieces of the offense in Week 1 is insurmountable. Piggies by double digits.
(24)Houston(-3.5) at UTSA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I love UTSA. They are probably my second-favorite team right now. Trelon Burks transferred in from Arkansas to fill the shoes of Sincere McCormick. This is a rough game though. Houston is very talented, especially on offense. I'll give the edge at QB to Frank Harris, and even though Alton McCaskill is out, Ta'Zhawn Henry is probably better than Burks. As much as I like Zakhari Frankin, Nathaniel Dell is just...special. I give the edge to Houston, but they're not covering this. Meep meep!
Arizona at San Diego State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yeah...no. The Aztecs have distractions and Jayden de Laura is going to do well in Tucson, but not in game 1. Aztecs by double this!
Tulsa(-6.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wyoming looked really bad against an Illinois team that we really don't know much about. Even Titus Swen couldn't really get it going. It feels like Davis Brin has been at Tulsa about as long as DTR has been at UCLA. That kind of familiarity is huge early on. I'll take the Dust Devils by double digits.
Troy at (21)Mississippi(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
On the latest episode of as Jarret Doege turns, he transferred to Troy (after committing to and losing the starting job at Western Kentucky)...and lost out on that job too. Last year's starter for the Trojans, Gunnar Watson, will play QB against Ole Miss. Not that it matters. Even without Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee, Ole Miss is going to roll in this one. Zach Evans is in for a monster game here.
(25)BYU(-11.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Mormons just wanted to escape the mountains for some sun and sand. This certainly wasn't to test themselves. BYU might win by double this!
Texas State(-1.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Well...this is interesting. I know Nevada didn't look that great against the Lobos, but being a dog to the Bobcats in Reno feels...just...weird. Layne Hatcher, who once upon a time was at Alabama, transferred to Arkansas State and found himself in a timeshare for two years before heading to San Marcos. This is a situation where Nevada playing in Week 0 was probably a really good thing. I don't see the Wolf Pack losing this at home, but Texas State is going to be markedly better this year...just not in Week 1.
Rice at (14)USC(-32.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The USC hype is going to be unbearable after this game because the Trojans are going to roll. Caleb Williams is well versed in this offense. Rice isn't well versed in anything... Give me USC.
Florida Atlantic(-4.5) at Ohio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Owls looked the part in thrashing Charlotte (again). Ohio will provide a little more resistance with Kurtis Rourke, but there's a lot of new faces in Athens too. N'Kosi Perry is the player on the field and it's not close. FAU might win this by double digits.
Middle Tennessee State at James Madison(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It says something that the Dukes are favored in their first game at the FBS level. The Dukes landed Todd Centeio from the transfer portal after largely unsuccessful stops at Temple and Colorado State. Leading rusher Latrele Palmer returns as well. Is that enough? Against the Blue Raiders, probably. Give me JMU, but I wouldn't bet this.
(7)Utah(-2.5) at Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was a believer in that Utah defense until I watched the Rose Bowl. Then again, Florida's offense isn't even on the same planet as Ohio State's. Give me Utah.
Miami(OH) at (20)Kentucky(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is slipping with the unofficial official announcement that Chris Rodriguez is going to miss at least this game for Kentucky due to suspension. It's not like it matters. Kavosiey Smoke has carried this team before and Will Levis is still playing. I'll take the Wildcats at a discount.
Army at Coastal Carolina(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line opened with Army favored and likely should have stayed that way. I like the Chanticleers, but losing Isaiah Likely to the NFL is going to hurt the passing game. Grayson McCall returns, and we saw by the way the Chanticleers struggled without him that he is what makes this team go. Is that really true? We're about to find out. Give me CCU at home, but I'm not betting this.
Liberty(-3.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Oh really? No Malik Willis, no dice. Southern Miss straight up.
Massachusetts at Tulane(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UMass is still the worst FBS team and Tulane returns everything from a team that almost toppled Oklahoma last year. I'll ride the Wave in the opener, even at this spread.
Utah State at (1)Alabama(-41.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That's a lot of points for an offense incorporating a new running back and three new receivers. I'll take the Aggies, but I wouldn't touch this.
(5)Notre Dame at (2)Ohio State(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So...will one of you kindly explain to me why we need playoff expansion (thereby destroying the regular season) to include more teams when the one that would currently be "left out" is a huge dog to the number 2 team? It's totally warranted by the way. Notre Dame made a good hire, but this is an impossible situation for the Irish in Week 1. I'll take the Buckeyes.
Memphis at Mississippi State(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a cold December day in the winter of 2021 where I lamented on how sweet revenge would be for Mike Leach playing Texas Tech. The Bulldogs lost outright in Memphis last year with a similar spread. Do I think this team has revenge in them? Hell no! I've been burned too many times by lines like this. Mississippi State is capable of covering this, but they have a nasty habit of not doing so. Give me Memphis. They won't win, but the Bulldogs will screw around enough to not cover this.
Georgia State at South Carolina(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I like the new pieces that South Carolina brought in (Spencer Rattler and Austin Stogner from Oklahoma and Christian Beal-Smith from Wake Forest). Add them to MarShawn Lloyd, Josh Vann, and Xavier Leggette and that should equal a cover. The only reason this pick is lower is because the Panthers sniped Penn State a few years back and beat Auburn last year no matter what the Zebras say. Give me the Gamecocks.
SMU(-10.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Ponies head up I-35 a few exits to take on a team that just waxed UTEP in El Paso and the line goes up? This might be the most exciting matchup that the Mean Green have had in the new Apogee Stadium. This feels a touch high. SMU wins, but I think North Texas hangs around.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas(-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
We have absolutely no idea what Quinn Ewers brings to this team. This feels a bit high. Texas wins easily, but probably closer to 28 than 38. I'll take the Warhawks, but I wouldn't touch this.
Louisville(-4.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This feels low...like really low. Garrett Shrader was decent last year for the Orange and they're usually tough at home, but I don't see them consistently stopping Malik Cunningham. Let's not forget that Louisville throttled the Orange 41-3 just ten months ago. Louisville wins BIG!
Boise State at Oregon State(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boise hasn't been shy about going to power-five schools, but recent journeys have resulted in narrow losses. Considering they lost Khalil Shakir and Andrew Van Buren, I think that trend continues. I'll take the Beavers.
Kent State at Washington(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I think this is a good fit for Michael Penix, but this feels like a lot of points. Quarterback wasn't the only problem for the Huskies last year. Kent lost Dustin Crum, but Colin Schlee was solid last year as a backup. Marquez Cooper and leading receiver Dante Cephas are back. I think this stays close for a while. I'll take Kent and the points.
Western Kentucky(-15.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Honestly, neither team looked good last week, but Hawaii was monumentally bad. I'll take the Hilltoppers. They have to be on par with Vanderbilt, right?
Florida State vs. LSU(-2.5) at New Orleans
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boy, in another century this would have been a four-figure ticket price. Now you can get them for about the price of a NFL ticket. LSU has three quarterbacks. Florida State is more established behind Jordan Travis, played (and played well) in Week 0, and just looks better all around. I don't care that this is basically on the road. It's better than Death Valley at night. Give me Florida State straight up!
(4)Clemson(-22.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Clemson feels overrated, Georgia Tech is going to make it look like they belong there. The Tigers are going to roll here against a Tech team that lost their only good player from last year.
There are 46 FBS vs. FBS games this week. I went with only five one-pointers, which is odd for Week 1. I actually have more threes (16) than twos. I close it out with six four-point picks and four five-point picks. There's a lot out there I like in the opening week! Good luck out there!
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