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Mark Kieffer's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 25th, 2022 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, March 25th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/25/22
We have a five-game slate tonight. We have games starting at staggered times between 7 pm Eastern and 9 pm Eastern. Be aware of when the games start for your stacks, one-offs, and goalie. The best thing you can do is check 20-30 minutes before the puck drops for each game to ensure everyone in your lineup is playing! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Vitek Vanecek- DK $8.0K|| FD $8.0K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
With a shorter slate and some teams on back-to-backs, the goalie options are slim for cash game types of lineups. In my opinion, you either pay all the way up for Darcy Kuempter ($8.5K on both sites), or you go for someone closer to the middle like Vitek Vanecek. Vanecek is 16-9-5 on the season with 2.43 GAA, three shutouts, and a .917 SV%. Buffalo takes 29.83 shots per game on average, Vanecek is likely to allow just one or two goals on the night. He may not get a ton of saves, but given he is less expensive than Kuemper (likely to see a similar number of shots) and Markstrom (likely to see less shots) helps with that. Remember, we want our goalie to have the opportunity to make saves
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Kuemper (DK $8.5K || FD $8.5K), Markstrom (DK $8.3K || FD $8.3K), Shesterkin (DK $7.9K || FD $8.4K), Jarry (DK $7.8K || FD $8.2K), Comrie (DK $7.7K || FD $7.7K). If you are playing in a large field GPP with many lineups, you could consider Vejmelka, Merzlikins, Hart, or Anderson to get leverage on what will likely be the most popular stacks of the slate.
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon - DK $9.2K || FD $9.9K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Nathan MacKinnon is by far the top spend-up option at Center on the slate, and arguably out of any position on the slate. He has 69 points (22 goals, 47 assists) in 49 games played. Despite the fact that he has more assists than goals, he takes a lot of shots on goal, averaging 4.79 shots on goal per game! He is frequently going over the five-shot on goal bonus on DraftKings and he has scored 15 points in his last eight games. This game should be a blowout, and MacKinnon should be in on some scoring here.
Evgeny Kuznetsov- DK $5.9K || FD $7.6K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
This is a game in which Washington should score 3-4 goals against the Sabres. Buffalo allows the fifth-most shots in the NHL. Kuznetsov has scored 64 points (23 goals, 41 assists) in 63 games played. He also averages 2.71 shots on goal per game, and he is on a 10 game point-scoring streak. I am looking at him to extend that streak and if he does, he should make value on the slate, especially on DraftKings.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Crosby (DK $7.8K || FD $8.9K - Prefer to pair or stack rather than one off him), Lindholm (DK $7.2K || FD $8.2K), Scheifele (DK $6.4K || FD $7.4K - 2nd of a back to back), Dubois (DK $5.6K || FD $6.5K - 2nd of a back to back), Malkin (DK $5.4K || FD $7.3K), Backstrom (DK $3.9K || FD $5.0K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Alex Ovechkin - DK $8.3K|| FD $9.8K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
This is a great spot for Washington. Ovechkin has 76 points (40 goals, 36 assists) in 63 games played. He averages 4.46 shots on goal per game. Relative to MacKinnon, he is less of a value on FanDuel but MacKinnon should probably be nearly $11k on there and Ovechkin around $10K. Either way, he is the second-best spend-up option on the slate to me because we know he will take a lot of shots this game. It isn't necessary to spend up on him in cash games.
Matthew Tkachuk- DK $6.5K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Matthew Tkachuk is a good value on DraftKings this slate. He has 76 points (29 goals, 47 assists) in 63 games played, and averages 3.17 shots on goal per game. His archetype for fantasy scoring is similar to MacKinnon but at a smaller scale. Calgary is one of the best teams, Arizona is one of the worst. Goals should be scored here and Tkachuk should be in on some scoring. He has five points in the last two games, eight points in the last four games, and 10 points in the last five games.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Connor (DK $8.0K || FD $9.4K - GPP only, second of a back to back), Rantanen (DK $7.2K || FD $8.7K), Gaudreau (DK $7.0K || FD $9.0K), Ehlers (DK $6.3K || FD $7.5K - second of a back to back), Laine (DK $5.6K || FD $7.8K), Nichushkin (DK $5.3K || FD $6.7K), Atkinson (DK $4.9K || FD $6.4K), Nyquist (DK $2.7K || FD $5.5K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Zach Werenski - DK $6.4K || FD $6.4K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
I am often writing spend-up options like Cale Makar and John Carlson. If you want to play those guys, you can play them on virtually any slate. Zach Werenski is having a good season on a not-so-good team. He has 43 points (10 goals, 33 assists) in 59 games played. Additionally, he averages 3.25 shots on goal and 1.44 blocked shots per game. With Winnipeg on the second of a back-to-back, there is some sneaky upside here as Werenski does shoot quite a bit. Often when teams are on a back-to-back, the play is a little sloppier and more scoring happens. He has six points in his las six games and here's hoping he can get a point in this spot here.
Devon Toews- DK $5.4K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
When Makar is on the team, it is easy for a pretty good defenseman like Toews to get overlooked quite a bit. Toews has 46 points (12 goals, 34 assists) in 53 games played. He averages 2.49 shots on goal per game. In addition, he has logged 27 minutes of ice time in each of his last three games. Even though he isn't on the first power-play (he is on the second), he is getting the ice time to be a cash game staple.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Makar (DK $7.2K || FD $7.0K), Carlson (DK $6.8K || FD $6.6K), Fox (DK $6.5K || FD $6.9K - prefer to have him in NYR PP1 stacks than a one off), Hanifin (DK $4.5K || FD $5.1K), Peeke (DK $3.0K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
How you approach this slate depends on your contest selection. Because of the contests I play, on a larger slate like this, I try to find good plays that are overlooked due to the various options on the slate. Washington, Winnipeg, Colorado, and Calgary all find themselves in high expected total spots, all but one (Washington) are at home. In a single entry tournament, I probably pick the one team of these four that will be the least popular and use that as my main stack. The top six skaters and top two power-play on these teams all have to be considered.
In a large, multi-entry tournament, you might have to look at something wonky to get leverage on popular goalies such as stacking Arizona, Philadelphia, Columbus, or Buffalo. Winnipeg has the worst penalty kill on the slate out of those favored teams (No. 22, 76.5%), followed by Colorado (No. 18, 78.6%), and Washington (No. 15, 80%). Calgary has the No. 4 penalty kill so an Arizona Power Play stack is out of the question for me. The other issue is out of the other underdogs mentioned, they are all in the bottom third of power-play percentage (probably a reason why they are not good teams, to begin with). Buffalo and Columbus are the two best on the list.
Other ways to get different are through filler stacks. Calgary 3 is productive and likely to be overshadowed by the top six skaters on the team for example. How different you have to get depends on how large of a contest you are playing. At the end of the day, you want to be different so that if your lineup goes off, you are in first place.
