5 Potential Fantasy Baseball Bust Candidates - Overvalued Hitter ADPs

March 22, 2026

Thunder Dan's fantasy baseball bust candidates to avoid at ADP in 2026 drafts. His overvalued hitters including Zach Neto, Michael Harris II, Agustin Ramirez, Chandler Simpson, and James Wood.

Wait, aren't you the pitching guy? Yes, most of my content here at RotoBaller has focused on starting pitchers, but I have some thoughts on which hitters to target (or, in this case, fade), too!

If you're a fan of any of these players, don't take it personally! It's not like I don't like them at all; it's really a matter of the opportunity cost of drafting them at their current ADP, which I'm not in favor of doing. We can always afford to miss on a pick here or there, but sharp fantasy managers are always considering cost and avoiding players who may struggle to make value.

Don't forget to follow RotoBaller on X to get notified when articles drop. Our team will be bringing you all the preseason fantasy baseball content you need. All ADP referenced here is from the NFBC as of the last two weeks. Alright, let's get into five overvalued hitters you should avoid drafting this season.

Zach Neto, SS - Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 34

I am prepared for this to be an unpopular take, because Zach Neto has the power/speed combo that we are always searching for and has turned in two pretty darn good seasons in a row. In 2024, he hit 23 home runs and swiped 30 bags. Then last year, he went 26-26, even while missing 34 games with an injury.

But expecting another 30-30 season from Neto feels like a stretch, especially when he's already dealing with a hand injury this spring. X-rays were negative, and he returned to action a few days ago, but it's definitely not the way you want the season to start.

Let's forget the injury for now. My issue with Neto is that he strikes out a lot and walks very little. If you're in a league that counts OBP instead of average, his .318 and .319 marks from the last two seasons are tough to stomach. If you're just in a traditional batting average league, his career mark of .247 is a drag for a guy that's going off the board in the first three rounds.

Can Neto go 30-30? Maybe, but he had a career high 17.8% HR/FB last season, and he's no longer priced as a value, like he was in years past. You are paying a premium here for a guy who has likely hit his ceiling. He's a great player, tough competitor, and fun to root for, but I am not spending a third-round pick on him when I can find steals and home runs later in the draft without sacrificing batting average.

James Wood, OF - Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 38

We're staying in the early rounds here with another toolsy young player who I feel like is overpriced based on potential alone. James Wood is a freakish athlete with some of the best raw power we have seen from a young hitter in years. His ability to spray home runs to the opposite field makes him a very dangerous hitter, and his Statcast quality of contact metrics jump off the page in a good way.

But after a hot start to the season, we saw him really struggle down the stretch last year. After the break, he hit just .223 with seven home runs after hitting .278 with 24 dingers in the first half. He finished the year with 221 strikeouts and a massive 32% K%. That was a 3% increase from his rookie season, a trend that is concerning when we usually expect young hitters to trim their strikeout rate down with more MLB experience.

The #Nats OF/DH of Dylan Crews, Daylen Lile, and James Wood in their first 9 at-bats combined for 6 strikeouts. Robert Hassell III subs in and K's in his 1st AB. What is going on? pic.twitter.com/Q9LqVAXIbp

— Talk Nats (@TalkNats) March 15, 2026

I truly think pitchers started to figure out that you could work around Wood by throwing offspeed pitches and by not throwing him fastballs. He hit just .203 against breaking balls and just .174 against offspeed pitches last season. He'll have to prove that he can sit back and hit those pitches, or he'll keep getting a steady diet of non-fastballs.

There's still some potential profit at this price if Wood hits his ceiling, but we are paying a premium for a young hitter who is still far from a finished product. Even the rosiest projection systems have him at 27 HR and 17 steals - I can likely get that from Wyatt Langford a round later.

Agustin Ramirez, C - Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP: 82

It's easy to pick on the guy who is hitless in 17 spring at-bats as low-hanging fruit, but my issue with drafting Ramirez goes well beyond his struggles at the plate this spring. Ramirez hit 21 home runs and stole 16 bases from the catcher position in his rookie season, which was certainly a good start to his career. However, he slashed just .231/.287/.403, which was quite ordinary.

Strikeouts weren't the culprit, as he whiffed under 20% of the time. It was the fact that he wasn't able to square up the baseball all that often, despite hitting it pretty hard quite often.

You can see from his exit velocity and barrel rates that he can definitely hit the ball hard, and his bat speed is elite. But his launch angle, sweet spot percentage, and squared-up rates were far below average.

His defense behind the plate was quite bad, leading to him making over half his starts at DH. He probably should have struck out more often than he did, with a poor chase rate and whiff rate.

Again, I am not here to say that he's a bad hitter or that he won't improve in his second pro season. But he's the seventh catcher off the board ahead of guys like Salvador Perez (old reliable), Will Smith (hitting machine), and Yainer Diaz.

Only ZIPS has Ramirez matching his HR and steals totals from last season, with every other projection system expecting some regression. I think many are drafting him early based on the fact that he's young and expected to improve, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion that he'll be significantly better in 2026.

Michael Harris II, OF - Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 99

I totally understand that the 20/20 club is something pretty special and that these types of players are very appealing for fantasy baseball. But it took Harris staying healthy for 160 games to finish with exactly 20 home runs and 20 steals last season, while he hit a career-low .249 and walked just 2.5% of the time (bottom 1% in baseball).

His previous career-high in games played was 138 back in 2023, so getting another full season out of him feels like a stretch. Atlanta can't hit him near the top of the lineup, because he doesn't get on base (.268 OBP), so he usually slots into the seven-hole instead.

His career-high 85 RBI also came with a career-low 55 runs scored. Overall, he was a less productive hitter on a per-at-bat basis, but got his numbers through a volume of plate appearances. His 43% chase rate was among the worst in the majors, and the rest of his quality of contact metrics were average, at best.

When I look at others being drafted after him, I'd much prefer Seiya Suzuki, who has more HR appeal, or Luis Robert Jr., who has a much higher ceiling in both power and steals. Harris's 20-20 season is his ceiling, and I simply can't justify using a top-100 pick on him.

Chandler Simpson, OF - Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP: 179

Chandler Simpson is a "one-trick pony" whose main value comes from his elite speed and ability to swipe bases. Okay, two tricks since his batting average (.295) was a plus, too.

Don't get me wrong, 44 steals are nothing to scoff at, but can Simpson continue to get on base at such a high rate when he walked just 4.5% of the time?

He rarely strikes out, which gives him a fighting chance at hitting close to .300 again. His speed can turn every groundball in the hole into an adventure. But as you can see from his spray chart, almost half of his hits came on balls that never left the infield. It just feels like that's a tough thing to rely on, and having his value tied to his average and steals only makes him a tough sell for me when you can take someone like Xavier Edwards around the same part of the draft and get similar steals with more potential in run production.

Or if you're willing to take the hit in batting average, Jose Caballero offers as much steals upside with some actual pop in his bat.

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